Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

BTW, I'm Bullish!

 

[Rod]

I was happy to see that my Scottrade MSCI EAFE remained unchanged today.

It's still about a point under my buy-in point, but that's OK.

We are now in exciting times in this market, whether one wants to realize that or not!

I love it that all the talk is bearish. That can only mean one thing... a bull run is in the near future.

Bring It On

Rod

 

[Rod]

I was happy to see that my Scottrade MSCI EAFE remained unchanged today.

It's still about a point under my buy-in point, but that's OK.

We are now in exciting times in this market, whether one wants to realize that or not!

I love it that all the talk is bearish. That can only mean one thing... a bull run is in the near future.

Bring It On

Rod

PRESIDENT OBAMA... ARE YOU LISTENING!?!

Please say something positive to woody up Mr. Market:laugh:

 

[alevin]

Wow Rod! You've been so quiet this past year, I feel like I'm finally getting to know the REAL you just since you rejoined the wall of worriers! :nuts: :worried:

 

[Rod]

Wow Rod! You've been so quiet this past year, I feel like I'm finally getting to know the REAL you just since you rejoined the wall of worriers! :nuts: :worried:

That's because I basically sat out 2008. When you're on the lily pad there's not a whole lot to talk about. But when you're in the trenches, it's a blast!

I figured a relief rally would be in the books once the S&P breached 741, and I did not want to miss out on it. I knew I would probably be sacrificing a little with buying in on S&P 770 in anticipation of S&P 741. That was alright by me because I did not want to be caught on the sidelines.

Although the S&P is below 741, I'm still optimistic because the S&P posted record volume (for 2009) on Friday.

I'm by no means calling a bottom. But, I do believe a relief rally is imminent.
How much fruit will that rally bear? I have no idea. I would like to see at least 4% to recup my "losses" and then some.

After that, I'll probably head back for the lily pad.

Rod

 

[Rod]

Posted 19 Feb:

The S&P 500 has yet to breach its Nov 08 low... only 37points left to drop. I just may forego waiting on the additional 37 point drop in the S&P 500 in order to get on board for the inevitable bounce which I believe is now within reach.

Rod

"What don't kill ya make ya more strong"

 

[Rod]

Posted 23 Feb:

So, I was a day early on my move. Doesn't it always seem to work out that way? I simply want to ensure I am in for that inevitable short-term 10-20% bounce. Just so as long I do not lose 10-20% along the way...
Rod

Coming to fruition... (see bolded)

 

[350zCommTech]

Posted 23 Feb:

Coming to fruition... (see bolded)

There appears to be some stubbornness or complacency still with this market. IMO, we are somewhere between the denial and fear stage of Tom's emotional chart.

 

[Guest2]

There appears to be some stubbornness or complacency still with this market. IMO, we are somewhere between the denial and fear stage of Tom's emotional chart.

Excellant 350, I noticed the same thing myself and fully agree, this market
will need to put the fear of God into investors before capitulation can come. Thanks

 

[350zCommTech]

Excellant 350, I noticed the same thing myself and fully agree, this market
will need to put the fear of God into investors before capitulation can come. Thanks

Squalebear,

I think you just put the fear of God into me.:worried:

 

[Guest2]

Squalebear,

I think you just put the fear of God into me.:worried:

Again ! Damn, I'll try to stop doing that ! :nuts:

 

[Geaux4it]

Excellant 350, I noticed the same thing myself and fully agree, this market
will need to put the fear of God into investors before capitulation can come. Thanks

Excuse my candor folks, but we still do not get it. This all has to crash, hit bottom which is 0.00. There has to be nothing left until we realize there is an up from there. Simply put, we can not go up until there is no more bottom. JMHO.

Geaux

 

[350zCommTech]

Excuse my candor folks, but we still do not get it. This all has to crash, hit bottom which is 0.00. There has to be nothing left until we realize there is an up from there. Simply put, we can not go up until there is no more bottom. JMHO.

Geaux

SPX 250 would be a depression. Are you suggesting Armageddon?

 

[Guest2]

Excuse my candor folks, but we still do not get it. This all has to crash, hit bottom which is 0.00. There has to be nothing left until we realize there is an up from there. Simply put, we can not go up until there is no more bottom. JMHO. Geaux

Even a depression and the S&P at (250) would be Armageddon. You won't
ever see zero and if you wait for it, you'll be doomed to (G) Fund returns.
Hey, maybe thats enough for you. Risk Tolerance with the notion of zero
within the S&P = Zero Tolerance.

 

[Steadygain]

Rod,
I know you avoided a huge loss last year by playing G and in that since you've got a little lea way over most of us...


but I'm really hoping we get at least a 3% by COB tomorrow to cushion the loss.

I think the shorts will take it up - it will sell off by mid day - then shorts will dominate and push it like a rocket

Anyway, we'll hope for the best

 

[Rod]

Rod,
I know you avoided a huge loss last year by playing G and in that since you've got a little lea way over most of us...


but I'm really hoping we get at least a 3% by COB tomorrow to cushion the loss.

I think the shorts will take it up - it will sell off by mid day - then shorts will dominate and push it like a rocket

Anyway, we'll hope for the best

Yes, I did avoid the losses of 2008. I did not think Mr. Market would sink this far below Nov's lows, and it seems it has a ways to go. That said, I just may cut my losses because the S&P may very well be heading at least toward 500, and the DOW 5,000.

I made a mistake thinking the Nov lows would hold.

I've always told myself that I would never again sell a loss. But, I have nothing to prove, and no desire to ride this bear down to its knees.

I must preserve my capital, not my pride.

 

[Rod]

Going through my market notes for 2008:

The stock market plummeted 38.5% in 2008.
That was the worst annual decline since 1937,
when the stock market fell 38.6%. The stock market
advanced almost 25% in the year following that
record decline.

Wouldn't that be something if 2009 followed suit from 1938???

What to do...

What to do...

 

[Rod]

I must preserve my capital, not my pride.

At 11:50, I made an IFT to

100 (F)

Rod

 

[Geaux4it]

Going through my market notes for 2008:



Wouldn't that be something if 2009 followed suit from 1938???

What to do...

What to do...

I will settle for some weekly stability. When that happens, I will be in and it will not be to late. I have been preserving capital since fall of last year. I went to max conserve after losing 21%. That puts me ~30 percent ahead today. lol :suspicious:

 

[Rod]

What can I say???

As usual, I exited one day early.

One thing I will not subject myself to is chasing this bounce, however long-lived it may be... because I will be late getting in.

Good luck out there.

Rod