Rod's Account Talk

[Rod]

It's natural to rally on low volume because no one is in the market. Volume will come in later once we are much higher indicating the herd is returning to the market. This could end up being a 400 point day later this afternoon when the bull starts squeezing the shorts.

You're correct. I just wish it was a bit heavier prior to our noon deadline.

That's why I decided to go ahead and nibble at these fantastic (C) fund prices.

Wouldn't that be something if we sold off in the afternoon?:laugh:

 

[Corepuncher]

Volume looks good to me...we are on track to beat the last 4 days at the current rate. Internals looks good to me...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETV.N&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

I'm going to wait for 720-730.

 

[Rod]

Volume looks good to me...we are on track to beat the last 4 days at the current rate. Internals looks good to me...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETV.N&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

I'm going to wait for 720-730.

The closing volume the last 4 out of 5 days has been over 6,000,000,00.

 

[Rod]

The closing volume the last 4 out of 5 days has been over 6,000,000,00.

Hey Core, I see you must have edited your post while I was commenting to your comments about the volume being low the past 5 days.

I think we are on the same page now.

 

[Rod]

Well, my emotions shall remain in-check for the next few weeks (at least in the TSP) because I have no IFTs left for March.

I sure wish you could carry-over IFTs from month to month. Heck, I'd have a balance of 24 from 2008 alone!

In the case this rally has legs, at least I have my Scottrade and won't feel like I'm missing out on anything!

 

[Birchtree]

This would be a good day to own a 3X bullish ETF.

 

[Rod]

This would be a good day to own a 3X bullish ETF.

I own EFA. It's doing pretty well!

 

[Birchtree]

Have you thought what might happen if we get a cataclysmic push to the upside? In all probability the stock market is wrong as it always has been wrong in its major judgments of the future. We are not looking a another depression, but that is what the market has been predicting. Let's see what happens during the last hour today.

 

[Rod]

Have you thought what might happen if we get a cataclysmic push to the upside? In all probability the stock market is wrong as it always has been wrong in its major judgments of the future. We are not looking a another depression, but that is what the market has been predicting. Let's see what happens during the last hour today.

I'd LOVE to have a one day gain of 10%!

 

[Birchtree]

The current 200 day moving average for the Dow is around 9887 - that's 3,000 points from here. The SPX 200 day is at 1062 - when we get to those levels there will be no turning back. The question is how fast will we travel.

 

[Steadygain]

Rod,

I'm sure I speak for many when I say this:


THANK YOU VERY MUCH for bringing us all on the same page about the BS - especially something 'as big as that'

to you and the other Moderators ---

Your work is much appreciated.

 

[Rod]

Rod,

I'm sure I speak for many when I say this:


THANK YOU VERY MUCH for bringing us all on the same page about the BS - especially something 'as big as that'

to you and the other Moderators ---

Your work is much appreciated.

Thank you, on behalf of all Mods and Tom.

 

[Rod]

It's natural to rally on low volume because no one is in the market. Volume will come in later once we are much higher indicating the herd is returning to the market. This could end up being a 400 point day later this afternoon when the bull starts squeezing the shorts.

You were right about the volume, Dennis. I will keep that in mind from now on. Thank you for your continued insight.

 

[Rod]

Nah, I could be wrong but tomorrow may be a profit Taking day and Thursday has Initial Claims and Retail Sales numbers. Sooooo I'll just sit where I am, never liked jumping in on a big up day, but sometimes it works out!:worried:

Well, I've been trying to instill into myself the lessons I've learned over the years. Just to name a few from my account talk previous posts:

Perhaps the smart thing for us (I) Funders or anyone for that matter to do after a correction is not to jump in 100% within a couple days after in case the bottom is still forming.

Maybe we should use a little DCA to lessen the blow if the bottom hasn't been reached.

At least it will do our psyche good knowing we weren't in 100% on a continued slide while we simply DCA'd another 10% for a cheaper buy.

The reason why most of us don't do this is because we want that huge chunk of change, and we want it now. Maybe it's time to rethink that, especially during a correction.

Remember those emotions folks...

If you're in, you may want to consider simply riding it out instead of selling it off.

Heck, look how quickly we gained back Feb's losses.
We learn lessons over time, and one of those is patience pays... whether you are IN or OUT of the market.

For those of you stuck in this downtrend, it can become very discouraging and quite scary. I was there myself in the summer of 2006 (see previous posts in this thread during that period).

My advice would be not to give in and sell-off (like I had done). Stick it out, and actually DCA in with new monies... if that's your piece of cake.

Once this market takes off, it'll take off big. And if you are currently registering a loss, you don't want to miss that rebound.

We don't know when that rebound is going to come, or what will be its catalyst. But it will come.

Your patience and determination will pay off!

Please be patient before jumping in. Yes, you may miss a few snap rallies. But it's best to wait until the techinical picture becomes much clearer and the trend is UP!

On that note, our IFT limits makes it so much more difficult to trade our accounts. I need to adjust my lessons learned to those limits.
To be quite honest, I wasn't thinking about how many trades I had left when I went 90 (G) and 10 (C) today. I now have ZERO trades left for March. If I would have thought about it, I would have remained 100 (C) so I can DCA back out into (G), if necessary. Now, I'm stuck playing with 10% of my account for the next 3 weeks.

I think I will blame that blunder on the oxycodone.

God Bless, and Good Luck out there.

 

[nnuut]

Good advise Rod:
I have only one IFT left this Month. Considering how many times I've seen a down day after a BIG UP day (most of the time?) I thought it was a better idea to wait and see what happens Tomorrow and Thursday. If the rally turns into an uptrend I will go in then.:worried:

 

[Rod]

Good advise Rod:
I have only one IFT left this Month. Considering how many times I've seen a down day after a BIG UP day (most of the time?) I thought it was a better idea to wait and see what happens Tomorrow and Thursday. If the rally turns into an uptrend I will go in then.:worried:

With the TSP, be cautious about entering after 2 or 3 UP days because they could be the only UP days, and then we head south again.

With a particular trading platform, PLAY IT NOW!

 

[Rod]

When I make a move I later second guess, I continue to maintain a separate tracker for that previous allocation just to see where I would be at had I not made the move. That said, had I maintained 70 (I) 30 (C), I would be sitting @ -6.75% instead of the -9.28% I am currently at.

So, I no longer feel that bad about making the move.

Now, tomorrow will be another story if we have a follow through rally.

But, I'll still be a happy camper because I'm in the market with my Roth.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

FYI...

Today's rally was the largest since 24 Nov. 16 Dec came close to today's levels.

 

[Rod]

Yesterday and today was the first 2-day winning streak since 5&6 Feb.

If tomorrow ends positive, it will be the first 3-day winning streak since 26-28 Jan.

Although today's gains were modest, we can always look at them as sustaining yesterday's action.

God Bless

 

[KevinD]

Happy Birthday!