Rod's Account Talk

[poolman]

What can I say???

As usual, I exited one day early.

One thing I will not subject myself to is chasing this bounce, however long-lived it may be... because I will be late getting in.

Good luck out there.

Rod

Hey Rod,

You gave it a shot. And that is all it is these day's. I went in 100%

today. So now I will give it a shot. We all know it is a tough Market. I

know how you feel though. I've been doing the same thing this year.

 

[Rod]

Hey Rod,

You gave it a shot. And that is all it is these day's. I went in 100%

today. So now I will give it a shot. We all know it is a tough Market. I

know how you feel though. I've been doing the same thing this year.

Yep. I sure wish we could hedge our TSP.

 

[Rod]

What can I say???

As usual, I exited one day early.

One thing I will not subject myself to is chasing this bounce, however long-lived it may be... because I will be late getting in.

Good luck out there.

Rod

After today, I feel much better about selling on Tuesday. Because if I would have been in yesterday, I would have stayed in until at least today in hopes to catch a follow-through bounce, which never transpired. Had I remained, my account would be lower now than what I sold off at. So yeah, I feel vindicated. But still, I'm very ticked at myself. I'm not ticked that I tried playing the bear, but that I played with 100% of my account. That's a very dangerous proposition in today's environment.

I need to keep the greed in-check.

Rod

 

[KevinD]

I'll probably not use 50% any more...

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Yep. I sure wish we could hedge our TSP.

You hedge your TSP with an outside account with some inverse and/or other metals, commodities ETFs, or shorting. Pretty much a prerequisite in this environment and possibly going forward for the next several years for all FERS employees.

 

[Rod]

You hedge your TSP with an outside account with some inverse and/or other metals, commodities ETFs, or shorting. Pretty much a prerequisite in this environment and possibly going forward for the next several years for all FERS employees.

Already doing that.

 

[Rod]

I'll probably not use 50% any more...

When I'm bottom fishing, it will be no more than 10%.

I need some accountability on that!

 

[Birchtree]

So we have the lows going back to September 1996 - so that's not too bad. The years of 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, were all good years to be invested - not that matters now, or does it. I wouldn't worry about the NFP number tomorrow - we still have over 75% more people working since 1982. Bring on 600/6000 and watch the fireworks that develope.

 

[Rod]

bring on 600/6000 and watch the fireworks that develope.

500/5000

 

[Birchtree]

I have no doubt that present conditions offer great buying opportunities for stocks. With all the global intervention taking place something is bound to happen. Although only the most iron-willed investor would stroll calmly into equities. If you're a long term investor, hold as much risk as you can tolerate.

 

[Rod]

I have no doubt that present conditions offer great buying opportunities for stocks. With all the global intervention taking place something is bound to happen. Although only the most iron-willed investor would stroll calmly into equities. If you're a long term investor, hold as much risk as you can tolerate.

I'll wait it out a bit longer... at least in my TSP.

Now, my Roth is another story... I'm looking for bargains.

 

[Rod]

Tom's "whooosh" comments are key to thee bottom, IMHO.

No whooosh

No bottom

If you're in the market, you want the whooosh.

You need to be hoping for the Dow to be down at least -700 out the gate, and then +50 at the close.

You need to feel the pain and then optimism that day will bring.

If all you are hoping for is green throughout the entire day, you are not positioning yourself mentally for thee bottom.

Until then...

No whooosh

No bottom

Rod

 

[Birchtree]

I think we had all the wooosh for a lifetime back in October and November - the institutional investor is essentially out of the market along with hedge funds - it's the retail investor that is now doing all the emotional selling. They are the last ones to finally capitulate. At these levels it will be really difficult to see a -700 point down day - of course I can always as usually be wrong. But a 1000 point up day could be right around the corner - as a matter of fact there could be several of that magnitude back to back. Now that would send a message.

 

[mojo]

I think we had all the wooosh for a lifetime back in October and November - the institutional investor is essentially out of the market along with hedge funds - it's the retail investor that is now doing all the emotional selling. They are the last ones to finally capitulate. At these levels it will be really difficult to see a -700 point down day - of course I can always as usually be wrong. But a 1000 point up day could be right around the corner - as a matter of fact there could be several of that magnitude back to back. Now that would send a message.

Maybe Monday 1000 up . Then I'll get out again.

 

[Rod]

When I'm bottom fishing, it will be no more than 10%.

Contemplating:

90(G) 10(C)

Then again, I could go crazy and do:

100 (C)

Hey, I need the adreneline rush!

 

[Rod]

Effective COB,

100 (C)

Citibank's good news of being profitable the first 2 months of 2009 has me positive because I believe that will lift the spirits of everyone, thus affect sentiment.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Effective COB,

100 (C)

Citibank's good news of being profitable the first 2 months of 2009 has me positive because I believe that will lift the spirits of everyone, thus affect sentiment.

God Bless

I forgot to look at the volume levels and take those into consideration with my IFT (They are rather low). I blame that on the oxycodone (I had a tooth pulled this morning). That said, I believe I will be going:

90 (G)

10 (C)

I still have a few minutes to decide.

God Bless

 

[nnuut]

Nah, I could be wrong but tomorrow may be a profit Taking day and Thursday has Initial Claims and Retail Sales numbers. Sooooo I'll just sit where I am, never liked jumping in on a big up day, but sometimes it works out!:worried:

 

[Rod]

I forgot to look at the volume levels and take those into consideration with my IFT (They are rather low). I blame that on the oxycodone (I had a tooth pulled this morning). That said, I believe I will be going:

90 (G)

10 (C)

I still have a few minutes to decide.

God Bless

It's official.

90 (G)

10 (C)

NEXT TIME, SAY- HEY ROD, DID YOU TAKE THE VOLUME LEVELS INTO CONSIDERATION?!?

Thanx

 

[Birchtree]

It's natural to rally on low volume because no one is in the market. Volume will come in later once we are much higher indicating the herd is returning to the market. This could end up being a 400 point day later this afternoon when the bull starts squeezing the shorts.