Rod's Account Talk

[Guest2]

As far as I can tell, rallies out of bottoms don't occur due to everyone all of a sudden "guessing" that it was the bottom and it turns out to be the case. There has to be a light at the end of the tunnel in order to turn the tide for real...and there is no light.

And still, the three days that found enough reason to go green ended up
bouncing in the opposite direction of more then +17%. The Market won't
go straight up, nor straight down. Someone, Somewhere, Somehow will
do or say something in the midst of darkness and shine enough light on
the bloody streets. Thus, a uncoiling of the fear will be released and the
response will be greater then the +12% average gain that we saw two
Mondays ago. After all, it was a time of dark, hopelessness too. Not much
has changed in two weeks (IMHO).

 

[Birchtree]

Yes, but you cannot see into the future - while the market is omnipotent. It will take off and leave all in wonderment many months before the economy bottoms. You'll get your 900 point day out of the blue again and one of these times there will be no retest. You simply have to gather the pain flowers and be there when the explosion occurrs because you will hold back for fear of being trapped and decide to wait when the train is leaving the station. Those on the lilly pad will have their heads spinning in amazement - this up leg will arrive with a bear crushing vengence - smashing 18 billion short shares into redemption. Just like the hedge funds have recently experienced with their irrational panic margin call selling - it works both ways. I have paid my price and now will reap the bounty.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Rod]

I have paid my price and now will reap the bounty.

Dennis - permabull #1

That, you have, my friend.

You are indeed that shining light of optimism folks need in these darkest of days.

 

[Rod]

As I review my Account Talk for "lessons learned", the most important lesson learned came from 2006 and has definitely paid off so far for 2008.

Posted 28 Dec 06:

To sum up my trading year, In May, I was sitting @ 4.48% for the year. When I began to see the (I) fund sell-off, I had thought it was an opportune time to buy-in. But, I happen to buy in while it was on a downward spiral. I continued to ride it down in hopes of riding it back up, but I got "spooked" and could no longer take the pain of seeing my account dwindle away. I ran for shelter to (G) in July and have been hunkered down ever since, thinking that if I were to attempt to ride the bull, it would immediately buck me off. Because that's how it goes, right? When you finally decide to throw in the towel, that's when the market plunges. Well, if I would had simply stayed put @ 100 (I) I would had definitely gained back all of my losses and then a whole lot more! Yeah, it's frustrating. But there's always 2007, right?

If anything went right for me in 2006, I've minimized my summer loss.

But the one lesson I learned is "patience".

So, for those of you out there in negative territory and have time on your side, simply remain patient. You will gain your losses back, and then some.

And for those of you on the sidelines, such as myself, simply remain patient for the The Bull to be resuscitated!

God Bless

 

[justbizness45]

So, for those of you out there in negative territory and have time on your side, simply remain patient. You will gain your losses back, and then some.

And for those of you on the sidelines, such as myself, simply remain patient for the The Bull to be resuscitated!

God Bless

Rod, thanks for the insight!!

 

[Rod]

We'll have another one of those 900+ point rallies before the bottom settles in.

So, that would be the ideal time to bail if you plan on bailing!

AND here's that rally I was talking about.

Did you stay, or did you bail, squalebear???

 

[Guest2]

AND here's that rally I was talking about.

Did you stay, or did you bail, squalebear???

I bailed on the 30th and went back in today (to the I Fund)

 

[Rod]

(G) Man checking in... still happily 100 (G).:ban:

 

[Rod]

Although we successfully tested the 27 Oct lows on the DOW and S&P, and the 12 Nov low on the NAZ, we have put in new intraday lows on both the NAZ and the S&P.

Something worth considering as you go forward.

God Bless

 

[Corepuncher]

Although we successfully tested the 27 Oct lows on the DOW and S&P, and the 12 Nov low on the NAZ, we have put in new intraday lows on both the NAZ and the S&P.

Something worth considering as you go forward.

God Bless

Also, we just hit the lower bollinger band. Going back to previous posts on this...this has guaranteed a much lower buy in point in the near future going back to July 2007. Even with the big rally, we barely made it to just under the 20 day SMA. A bounce to the 20 before failing is oh so typical. I guess we'll see if this time is different.

 

[Rod]

Also, we just hit the lower bollinger band. Going back to previous posts on this...this has guaranteed a much lower buy in point in the near future going back to July 2007. Even with the big rally, we barely made it to just under the 20 day SMA. A bounce to the 20 before failing is oh so typical. I guess we'll see if this time is different.

Yes, great point!

 

[Rod]

13 Nov 08:

Although we successfully tested the 27 Oct lows on the DOW and S&P, and the 12 Nov low on the NAZ, we have put in new intraday lows on both the NAZ and the S&P.

Something worth considering as you go forward.

God Bless

We have broken below those new intraday lows set on 13 Nov.

The new intraday lows are essentially today's closing price.

Where it goes from here is anyone's guess... because that's just what it is in this game.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Posted 13 Oct:

I don't know about you, but while mr. Market is dangling that carrot, i am looking for the dow to retest 7,882.51.

test has failed

test has failed

test has failed

test has failed

 

[Rod]

I am now looking for Mr. Market to test the new intradays lows set across the board, today-

DOW: 7,449.38

S&P: 741.02

NAZ: 1,295.48

Although Mr. Market "rallied" today, he did not surpass yesterday's intraday highs in the above indexes. Keep that in mind as you go forward.

God Bless

 

[Rod]

Yeah... still happily basking 100(G).

 

[Rod]

I will be going into 2009:

100 (G)

Although I've been out of the market for the entire of 2008, I am looking forward to entering it at some point in 2009. The way things are looking now, I may be out the first half of 2009. I am not in any hurry, though. I have proven myself to myself to remain patient. I shall write a book in 2009 titled, "The Patient Investor", for such a book has yet to be published.

Rod

 

[Rod]

Happy New Year!

 

[Rod]

Yeah... still happily basking 100(G).

What he said.

 

[Rod]

21 Nov 08

I am now looking for Mr. Market to test the new intradays lows set across the board, today-

DOW: 7,449.38

S&P: 741.02

The DOW is now at a 7 year low, albeit on low volume. The S&P 500 has yet to breach its Nov 08 low... only 37 points left to drop. I just may forego waiting on the additional 37 point drop in the S&P 500 in order to get on board for the inevitable bounce which I believe is now within reach.

Rod

 

[nnuut]

Wow, Rod is going Bullish, I beat you to it but a little early I'd say!