Rod's Account Talk

[phillyfed]

EDIT:

I wouldn't be placing too much stock into today's "rally".

1. We need to test the new lows

2. It's a light market news day

3. Bond markets are closed

4. Volume was light

Just remain cautious out there because there is a lot of market news coming out this week!

Excellent post.....Im amazed by the market euphoria to the upside and downside. Its way overdone on both sides. It makes for great trading opportunities thou. If credit spreads dont loosen up tomorrow at the Chicago Merc watch us give some of these gains back. The contrarian investor wins when its all said and done.

 

[Rod]

Excellent post.....Im amazed by the market euphoria to the upside and downside. Its way overdone on both sides. It makes for great trading opportunities thou. If credit spreads dont loosen up tomorrow at the Chicago Merc watch us give some of these gains back. The contrarian investor wins when its all said and done.

Rightly said, phillyfed.

 

[Rod]

Well, I finally f i n a l l y took the plunge and moved me and my Wife's Roths to E*Trade.

Just waiting on the transfer before I begin trading.

Anyone else have E*Trade?

I was going to go with Scottrade, but once I logged on it become very evident how slow their servers are! I said, "The heck with that!".

God Bless

 

[Rod]

I wouldn't be placing too much stock into today's "rally".

1. We need to test the new lows

Game On

 

[Guest2]

Game On

Its a Battle for Endore out there Rod, Good Luck !

 

[Rod]

Its a Battle for Endore out there Rod, Good Luck !

Thank you... good luck to you too!

I'm poised and ready... but remaining patient.

 

[Guest2]

Thank you... good luck to you too!

I'm poised and ready... but remaining patient.

I've been stubborn about bailing out this month. From March until Sept.
I didn't have the patience and bailed early in the months. Now that I
found my stubborness (is that a word) I can't help but think I'm an idiot.
On Monday, I was a genius. On Wednesday a fool. But I'm sticking it out
a little longer with 15%(C) and 15%(S). The only other alternative is to
jump to (G) and wait for November.

 

[Rod]

I've been stubborn about bailing out this month. From March until Sept.
I didn't have the patience and bailed early in the months. Now that I
found my stubborness (is that a word) I can't help but think I'm an idiot.
On Monday, I was a genius. On Wednesday a fool. But I'm sticking it out
a little longer with 15%(C) and 15%(S). The only other alternative is to
jump to (G) and wait for November.

Well, if I was only in 30% I probably would have moved that to the sidelines by now. But it all depends on the individual... risk tolerance... retirement horizon... etc.

I'm now waiting for all the new lows to be tested and hold before I even consider making any moves. I'll remain in (G) as long as it takes.

 

[Guest2]

Well, if I was only in 30% I probably would have moved that to the sidelines by now. But it all depends on the individual... risk tolerance... retirement horizon... etc.

I'm now waiting for all the new lows to be tested and hold before I even consider making any moves. I'll remain in (G) as long as it takes.

Thanks for sharing your respected point of view. If the Futures are any
sign of what tomorrow will bring, you might just see me jump to safety
by noon. I'm thinking we'll see a turn around with the (S) leading the way.
But small caps took a poop yesterday and the (C) carried on half the gains.
If we're green by 11:30am, I might reconsider. Trust me, I'll be watching,
reading and listening to everything I can before hand. Thanks Again

 

[Rod]

Thanks for sharing your respected point of view. If the Futures are any
sign of what tomorrow will bring, you might just see me jump to safety
by noon. I'm thinking we'll see a turn around with the (S) leading the way.
But small caps took a poop yesterday and the (C) carried on half the gains.
If we're green by 11:30am, I might reconsider. Trust me, I'll be watching,
reading and listening to everything I can before hand. Thanks Again

Although we made some new closing lows today, it wasn't as bad as all of us thought it would be due to those ugly futures. When I speak of the lows being tested, I am speaking of the intraday lows, and not the closing lows.
That test can easily come to fruition next week. I'll be on the look-out to see if those intraday lows are breached, or if they are hovered above.

It's going to be an interesting week next week.

God Bless

 

[Guest2]

Although we made some new closing lows today, it wasn't as bad as all of us thought it would be due to those ugly futures. When I speak of the lows being tested, I am speaking of the intraday lows, and not the closing lows.
That test can easily come to fruition next week. I'll be on the look-out to see if those intraday lows are breached, or if they are hovered above.

It's going to be an interesting week next week.

God Bless

Thank you for the blessing and your thoughts. A steep drop on a intraday
basis (early) and true capitulation is what many are waiting for. In a ideal
world, this will happen on Monday, November 3rd, 2008. At approximately
11:45am we all recognize the opportunity and jump in (head first) into the
most glorious rebound in recent history, come Tuesday. Just in time for the
National Election of 2008. I can hope, can't I ?

 

[Rod]

Thank you for the blessing and your thoughts. A steep drop on a intraday
basis (early) and true capitulation is what many are waiting for. In a ideal
world, this will happen on Monday, November 3rd, 2008. At approximately
11:45am we all recognize the opportunity and jump in (head first) into the
most glorious rebound in recent history, come Tuesday. Just in time for the
National Election of 2008. I can hope, can't I ?

Yes, we can all hope. But, if we are honest with ourselves, and with the rest of the global economy, a recovery may be at least 6 months into the future.

Yes, we will have some bear rallies along the way. But, this bear is hear to stay for a little longer...IMHO.

 

[Guest2]

Yes, we can all hope. But, if we are honest with ourselves, and with the rest of the global economy, a recovery may be at least 6 months into the future.

Yes, we will have some bear rallies along the way. But, this bear is hear to stay for a little longer...IMHO.

I do agree. I'm not hoping for a bottom. I'm hoping for a Rally to bail on
before November. Might be wishful thinking with the way things are going.
Its gonna take many more months of Economic Woes before the Bull appears.

 

[Rod]

I do agree. I'm not hoping for a bottom. I'm hoping for a Rally to bail on
before November. Might be wishful thinking with the way things are going.
Its gonna take many more months of Economic Woes before the Bull appears.

We'll have another one of those 900+ point rallies before the bottom settles in.

So, that would be the ideal time to bail if you plan on bailing!

 

[Birchtree]

I will sell no rallies and buy all dips while we are in this basing pattern - accumulation is my game. I've been here before in August 1982 and what a ride that turned out to be. No one will trust any rally and that's how many will be left behind - you have to be in to win as well as play give back.

 

[Rod]

Here's a helpful map of the market and its sectors:

http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/

 

[Corepuncher]

Here's a helpful map of the market and its sectors:

http://www.smartmoney.com/map-of-the-market/

This one is good too as you can use the slide bar at the bottom to scroll through the last few days

http://stockcharts.com/charts/carpet.html

 

[Rod]

... as well as play give back.

Yeah, that's been a losing game lately.

I'll enter once the bottom has been established and we are trending up.

Yes, I may miss out on 20% of the 50%+ rally, but at least I won't lose 50% bottom fishing.

 

[Rod]

This one is good too as you can use the slide bar at the bottom to scroll through the last few days

http://stockcharts.com/charts/carpet.html

Thanx!

 

[Corepuncher]

I will sell no rallies and buy all dips while we are in this basing pattern - accumulation is my game. I've been here before in August 1982 and what a ride that turned out to be. No one will trust any rally and that's how many will be left behind - you have to be in to win as well as play give back.

As far as I can tell, rallies out of bottoms don't occur due to everyone all of a sudden "guessing" that it was the bottom and it turns out to be the case. There has to be a light at the end of the tunnel in order to turn the tide for real...and there is no light.