Playing the I fund

[fabijo]

Should be 18.54. Just 5 cents less than when I went in.

 

[FundSurfer]

MSCI has +1.97% today which would equate to $18.63 if no FV. Taking Gilligan's calcs of 9-10 cent FV yesterday, if it is taken back that would end with $18.53. Based on the market's continued climb, I'd bet they don't take the FV back today but let it ride. (It would be to my benefit - if tommorrow continues up - for them to take it back today.)

My bet - COB $18.63

 

[Pilgrim]

The dollar has continued dropping through the afternoon, well after foreign markets closed. I would expect us to do better than the MSCI number as a result.

 

[GUCHI]

heres a dumb ????? from a newbie what the h-ll is a fv and what does it do for us???

 

[fabijo]

The Asian markets should help spring this coil further tomorrow!

 

[fabijo]

heres a dumb ????? from a newbie what the h-ll is a fv and what does it do for us???

Fair Valuation. It's been discussed a few times on this thread. The TSP website says that the I Fund will occasionally go through a fair valuation to keep people from taking advantage of trading on stale prices. Example - the MSCI EAFE index might go down 2%, but the I Fund only goes down 1.5%. That amound that the I Fund didn't go is the fair valuation - it will be corrected within a day or two.

 

[ebbnflow]

I Fund is up +.48 or +2.62% from 18.27 to 18.75. FV is piling up on top of FV like before. Shades of Hezbollah. Here's hoping cooler heads prevail in that region. Peace.

 

[Pilgrim]

So how to play it?? I went all I fund today expecting Asia and Europe to join the party tomorrow. If dollar drops some more, tomorrow will be a good day. Then what?? When peace breaks out we'll get a day or two of upmarkets on the news before reality sets in and fear of a declining world economy add to the summer doldrums. So what to do?

One play would be to hold I fund until a day or two after mideast cease fire, then jump to G to size things up. Riskier, but with prospects of higher payoff, is to try time a fall back after tomorrow but before any cease fire. There might not be a pullback inbetween. Opinions from our I-fund champs??

 

[Wheels]

my opinion is that the I fund could gain 50 cents today and end up somewhere around $18.77

You're on fire Gilligan. I fund is now over priced by about 20 cents.

When will the correction come? Place your bets.

Dave
<><

 

[Pilgrim]

When will the correction come? Place your bets.

Dave
<><

Seems to me that if the dollar drops after foreign markets close, they delay taking it back. I can't prove that, it would require some pretty extensive analysis of past patterns, but at least a few times that is what happened.

 

[robo]

Japan is headed up, but oil is in a Big Time Rally. Hope it doesn't spoil the party.. A couple of up days would be nice...

Oil Headed to 75.00 again. Japan up over 300 points...


http://www.kitco.com/market/

 

[robo]

Seems crude is not as high as the link at kitco indicates.. Still under 75.00...

 

[Gilligan]

You're on fire Gilligan. I fund is now over priced by about 20 cents.

When will the correction come? Place your bets.

Dave
<><

Well I was close 1 day out of 365, my returns prove that I'm not a pro. I think that the correction will be on Thursday unless the US markets continue to rally then the correction will be Friday.

 

[Pilgrim]

Seems crude is not as high as the link at kitco indicates.. Still under 75.00...

Where are you checking??

 

[airlift]

Seems crude is not as high as the link at kitco indicates.. Still under 75.00...

After you wrote this, I believe Pilgrim asked where you are getting this information. I don't know if there are better sites, but write down FutureSource.com. It is a free website, even though the information lags a few minutes. Throughout the day, I keep tabs on the price oil, natural gas, gasoline, etc. Hope this helps!

http://www.futuresource.com/markets/market.jsp?id=energy

 

[Brett]

Sponsor, that futuresource.com web site is a real Gem!! Thanks!

 

[Pilgrim]

Jumping out of I today, thinking that attention will turn back to war, oil, and slowing global economy. Next good entry point is when peace breaks out. Many commentators predict that the immediate result will be a sharp drop in the dollar and a surge upward for European stocks.

Lots of articles to the effect that Washington wants to give Israel time to damage Hexbollah sufficiently so U.S. is dragging its heels on any peace process. Things will turn quickly once Bush makes the decision.

For me, when we hear that Condoleezza Rice is on her way to the Middle East, its time to go I fund.

 

[airlift]

Sponsor, that futuresource.com web site is a real Gem!! Thanks!

You are welcome. I believe that the next thing should be to persuade the more skilled and knowledgeable people in the I-Fund thread to share their market timing skills in the I-Fund with the rest of us. It seems that some people here have been more successful in doing this than I have been. I don't think sharing this info here will diminish the performance of others in any way, because in any case we are only a few persons interested in this. What I mean is, that it is not like sharing information with the rest of the world, in which case I would understand that no one would benefit!

 

[airlift]

Jumping out of I today, thinking that attention will turn back to war, oil, and slowing global economy. Next good entry point is when peace breaks out. Many commentators predict that the immediate result will be a sharp drop in the dollar and a surge upward for European stocks.

Lots of articles to the effect that Washington wants to give Israel time to damage Hexbollah sufficiently so U.S. is dragging its heels on any peace process. Things will turn quickly once Bush makes the decision.

For me, when we hear that Condoleezza Rice is on her way to the Middle East, its time to go I fund.

I appreciate this opinion. This news has been out there at least since yesterday, and the U.S. indices seem to be improving since this morning. I was considering staying 100% here, but you are probably right. At least I am considering taking some off the table. However, don't you think that you should keep a position just in case?

 

[nnuut]

MSCI 1.677%