The_Technician said:
Recliner, I wouldn't get in ASAP and stay in....this thing failed to exceed its recent high the first week of Jun and thus it should drop even more. I'm fully expecting it to drop like a brick....Birchtree is a permabull, which means he only stays in and never gets out, even if the market is losing him money bigtime.....he is fully expecting everything to just go up and up and up....has been for the past year.....
Believe me, this thing looks like it could drop significantly.....another 10% wouldn't surprise me......but there are times when a shorty could be very rewarding...
Birchy Birchy Birchy...sometimes you really make me think you are being a paid poster.....sometimes....
Technician,
I understand that you are a Bear. I currently get a couple of them and I pay to here why they are bearish. They show me Technically and logically why the Market could go down.
However, I also get Newsletters from some Bulls and they think buying at current prices longer term is a good buy. Now, I don't think Birchtree is giving Bad advice it's just Bullish advice as yours is Bearish. Wouldn't you agree with that?
The list below is reasons the Market could rally. I will agree that the risk reward is high.
An end to the violence in Israel and Lebanon should pave the way for a higher market next week. IMHO, I do not believe this will escalate into a higher-scale “war.”
Quarterly contributions for calendar-year defined benefits pension plans are due today. And this cash should be immediately put to work in the stock market on Monday of next week.
The Barnes Index has plunged significantly with the recent roll-in of the latest earnings reports. The latest reading of 51.20 is a decline of a whopping 10.40 points from Wednesday at the close.
The latest spike in oil prices have mostly been caused geopolitical issues – and chances are that Ben Bernanke will take this fully into account at the next Fed meeting on August 8th.
Chances are now that the Fed will not raise again on August 8th. This should cause an immediate rally in stock prices.
Share buybacks and cash acquisitions by companies and private equity investors have been on a record tear recently – even up to as recently as this morning with the announced $1.7 billion buyout of Petco.
Bob Brinker also thinks buying at these prices for longer-term investors is ok. Could Bob be wrong? Yes!
I enjoy reading both Bullish and Bearish comments, but what does a paid poster mean? Birchtree seeks no gains from giving us his opinions, which I’m happy to get along with Tom’s and many more on this board.
Birchtree has been Bullish since I joined this board and has never waviered his opinion.
So Tech keep posting. I do read your post, but when you disagree just state that it's your opinion and why the person you DISAGREE WITH COULD BE INCORRECT. As we all know all the posts on this Board are just opinions.
Since you only have two choices up or down everyone gets it right some of the time.Take care and Play Fair. We need are Big Bull Posting as we need you.
Have a nice weekend. If you would like to comment on why the market should rally comments please do. Maybe I will go back to cash again soon. I do have very short stops in place.
recliner,
Some on the Board are long and some are in cash. The question for you is this.
What kind of investor are you? If your are a low risk kinda guy, maybe you should be in cash. Since you are close to retirement that must be considered. If you don't mind taking risk you could buy at these prices. However, good chance we could go lower before going higher.
The point is NO ONE, NO ONE, NO ONE KNOWS WHAT MR. MARKET WILL DO.
Everthing you read here is opinion. As for my above questions to you. Start
following Tom if you are a conservative investor, and if you are agressive investor/trader check out the board leaders. Most on the Board are traders. By that I mean they make frequent transfers. Some are Trend Trades longer term trades, but not many long term investors. Birchtree is one of the few.
Since he is a long term investor his advice might turn out good for you. Tech is talking about short-term trading. The Market will go down before it goes up.
Somtimes I want to send money to some of the the board leaders because they get it right so much. Again, the point is you must decided, and NO ONE, NO ONE, NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE.
I will say this Birchtree, Wheels, FundSurfer, etc.... Could not have acquired their current wealth by being incorrect all of the time.
Good luck in whatever you do. Investing in the stock market has risk! I'm also getting close to retirement and can't wait to start spending my TSP money.
OUCH!
