Playing the I fund

[robo]

FV's to reduce profits on the one-day Market Timers like us. HA!!!



Love to Market Time, but only when it works....

 

[ocean]

I will take the profits whenever it comes to me. I felt lucky that I just moved into 100% stock funds today by following Tom's move. My returns today was 1.2% and not bad for one day investment. Tomorrow I will be 100% stock funds again but it has more weights on the I fund. Hope there will be some FV left for tomorrow then. (Still don't understand the FV stuff).

Ocean

 

[Wheels]

Hope there will be some FV left for tomorrow then. (Still don't understand the FV stuff).

Ocean

There will not likely be anymore tomorrow. They applied fair valuation tonight. They paid the I fund 9-11 cents more than it was owed. That money now HAS TO BE TAKEN BACK within the next few days.

Dave
<><

 

[airlift]

There will not likely be anymore tomorrow. They applied fair valuation tonight. They paid the I fund 9-11 cents more than it was owed. That money now HAS TO BE TAKEN BACK within the next few days.

Dave
<><

I don't understand the FV calculations either. Why does the FV have to be taken back? What does the decision to apply FV depend on?

 

[Wheels]

I don't understand the FV calculations either. Why does the FV have to be taken back? What does the decision to apply FV depend on?

I know it's long but go back through this thread carefully. It's explained pretty well. If you can't find it let me know and I'll 'splain it to you.

Dave
<><

 

[nnuut]

Looks like the NIKKEI wants to play for a change, very, very good!!
06/22/05 NIKKEI 10:36 14943.42 +299.16

http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/

HONG KONG, Australia and Canada are up and playing too!
Could be another good day?

 

[nnuut]

Canada??? NO, NO not Canada! TYPO!!! yeah a TYPO!:embarrest:

 

[Gilligan]

The Nikkei 300 closed up 2.91%, London will open in an hour.

 

[ebbnflow]

Everything is shaping up well for those riding on the I Train. Here's hoping there's no sharp sell-off today. Pls. leave me some gravy for Friday.

 

[Show-me]

Dollar is rallying so thats going to take some cream off the top as well as the FV that should dilute the gain today.:blink:

 

[JOVARN]

If foreign buyers lose interest in U.S. debt, the Treasury will have to offer higher interest rates to attract buyers. The dollar could fall further. Import prices would rise. Inflation would surge. Higher rates, in turn, would slow the economy.

"If there's a slowdown, we could see stagflation," says Neal Ryan, director of research at Blanchard & Co., a major gold dealer. Those fears are amplified by the holders of U.S. Treasuries. Japan holds $639 billion in Treasuries. China holds $323 billion, the Treasury says. Oil exporters own $99.1 billion. "It's one thing to have your financing from Japan," Connelly says. "It's another to get it from China." Japan has a democratic government. China is a Communist nuclear power, and its relations with the U.S. have often been strained.

"There is a big risk of an adjustment in the dollar, but that doesn't affect U.S. creditworthiness," says Steven Hess, senior credit officer at Moody's Investor Services.

For U.S. investors, a long-term dollar slide means major portfolio adjustments:

•More international. As the dollar falls in value, U.S. investors benefit from converting overseas profits into dollars.

•More metal. Gold is one of the most volatile investments you can make. But a small investment in gold could protect some of your assets from inflation or a falling dollar.

Sooner or later, the Fed will have to stop raising its target for short-term rates or risk recession. Then, foreigners will have one less reason to buy dollars. The dollar's fall could resume. And so could the rise in gold.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2006-06-22-dollar-cover-usat_x.htm?csp=34

 

[ebbnflow]

I hope today doesn't turn into a "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in" type of day. By the way, that's a quote from Michael Corleone, from the Godfather III.

 

[Show-me]

Japan is said to be planning on raising interest rates from their near zero in July or August. To much Japanese investors sent their cheap money to investment in emerging market instead of in their own investment. Kind of back fired on them.

UK is holding rates.

European Central Bank just raised rates.

I think they will have to raise rate so that they can make their bond look more attractive. Plus they have the stronger currency than us.

Bad for the USD, but what will all the markets do?:blink:

 

[Wheels]

Dollar is rallying so thats going to take some cream off the top as well as the FV that should dilute the gain today.:blink:

Exactly on both counts. I think trying to catch these foreign bounces has become not worth the effort and risk.

Dave
<><

 

[nnuut]

Yes, it's been rough lately, but it will be back after the rate thing cools down. I don't think OIL is likely to straighten up in the near future, but if it stays within reason we will pay, what else?:worried: Dollar up +0.45, not good timing, maybe it will level off by the end of the day?

 

[Show-me]

I think trying to catch these foreign bounces has become not worth the effort and risk.

Dave
<><

I respectfully disagree because if your sitting in the G fund and want a nibble its a good opportunity. Some days they will not do the FV and some days the USD may go down. It's just a nibble but I happy with it.

 

[ebbnflow]

Dollar Gains on Speculation U.S. Will Maintain Yield Advantage
Dollar is up +.87

 

[Wheels]

I respectfully disagree because if your sitting in the G fund and want a nibble its a good opportunity. Some days they will not do the FV and some days the USD may go down. It's just a nibble but I happy with it.

I don't disagree that it might work out. But it's more of a crap shoot than it is a sound, albeit speculative play.

Dave
<><

P.S. It certainly seems to have not worked out for today. Dollar way up, European shares up but falling, and 10 cents of profit was already paid out and needs to be made up today. Even with huge Asian gains, we'll be lucky to come away with a few cents today.

 

[roguewave]

Exactly on both counts. I think trying to catch these foreign bounces has become not worth the effort and risk.

Dave
<><

It really is an extremely high risk proposition at this stage in the process to try and time these bounces in foreign markets and here at home in light of the CB's undergoing a coordinated effort in raising interest rates. They're squeezing the hedgies by tightening rate spreads across various markets forcing these players to adjust their margin positions in some way or another. Japan is the key here in terms of whether the Yen Carry Trade is on its way out and if we're in the initial stages of Japan changing its import/export strategy away from the U.S. toward China. Bernanke is catching the flack for what Japan is causing. Always, always remember, the HUGE and fast money is made taking these markets down. Good luck.

 

[Gilligan]

Let's see, Europe closes at what 10:30 EST, or when?

10:30 is correct in the winter, but when the US switches to daylight savings time the FTSE closes at 11:30 ET. NO matter what direction the FTSE is going before the US markets open the FTSE will follow the US markets the last 2 hours the FTSE is open.