Playing the I fund

[Gilligan]

Originally Posted by eino
MSCI up 0.484% today (07/25)
I-Fund $18.99 down $0.02 down 0.11%

..........................................................................
P.S. I think your calculations are just slightly off. You show the I fund as currently priced .4% too low, but I believe all of the recent FV's have been corrected and the I fund is properly priced. Gilligan can check my math. He is the resident expert.

Where would “I” be without the FV?

Benchmark July 14th, I-fund price ....$18.59
July 17.…...-1.145%..……........………...18.377145
July 18…..…-1.065%........................18.181429
July 19…..…+1.974%........................18.54033
July 20...….+1.677%........................18.851251
July 21.…...-0.501%.........................18.756807
July 24…....+0.764%........................18.900109
July 25……..+0.484%........................18.991585
July 26..……-0.029%.........................18.986078

Rounded off $18.99

Wheels, your math looks good to me without the FV.

 

[JOVARN]

Japanese Stocks Surge; Dollar Down vs. Yen


(AP Photo/Katsumi Kasahara)
A Japanese businessman studies share prices in Tokyo Thursday, July 27, 2006. Japanese stocks were nearly flat Thursday, as investors awaited more news from a string of earning reports. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index edged lower 0.57 points, negligible in percentage terms, to 14,882.50 points shortly after the open of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. PDF | Email
The Associated Press
Jul 27, 2006 5:22 AM (35 mins ago)
Current rank: # 1,018 of 4,543 articles

TOKYO - Japanese stocks rebounded sharply Thursday on healthy earnings reports from Honda, Matsushita and other blue-chip exporters.


The benchmark Nikkei 225 index rose 295.71 points, or 1.99 percent, to finish at 15,179.78 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

"Earnings season is getting under way and for now it's the exporters that are leading this market as the exchange rate and the U.S. consumer powers demand," said Hitoshi Yamamoto, president of Commerz International Capital Management.
full story
http://www.examiner.com/a-196434~Japanese_Stocks_Surge__Dollar_Down_vs__Yen.html

 

[Ed]

www.thrifttrading.com called yesterdat for 100% in I Fund - Ed

 

[mlk_man]

If it was a Long "I" Land iced tea - this should mean to go long on the I fund.

Looks like you might be right. Not use to reading tea leaves yet............

 

[James48843]

Dollar sinking.

Japan up big.

Europe up big.

"I" going to be up big today.

(Figures. I moved OUT of being 100% in "I" at the close yesterday, and now hold just 40% in "I" fund. US stocks up, but very weakly, today.)

As I said before-- You want to make big money? Just watch what I do, and do EXACTLY the opposite, and you can't go wrong.

 

[frokker]

As I said before-- You want to make big money? Just watch what I do, and do EXACTLY the opposite, and you can't go wrong.

I feel the same way!! LOL

 

[ebbnflow]

How high does anyone think the I Fund can get today (+1%, +2% or +3%)? :nuts:

 

[mlk_man]

Doesn't it owe back like .8% from yesterday?

 

[ebbnflow]

Doesn't it owe back like .8% from yesterday?

Be that as it may, I think we still get to +3% after the day is over. Got my fingers crossed.

 

[FundSurfer]

View attachment 1025

Dollar has actually only dropped 0.25% so far today, most of the drop was yesterday, thus the FV. This is actually a reaction to the idea that the Fed will not raise interest rates in August. Slower housing market backs up the idea of the Fed not raising rates in Aug. I don't think we'll see 3% today. Japan ended +1.99%, I'd guess the Euro nations to be up about 1%, and the UK to be up 0.8%. That leads to a guess of up 1.2% for foriegn stox + +0.25% because of dollar decline minus yesterdays FV (~-0.8%). I'd guess +0.6% -- but the day is early. The dollar can still move a bunch between now and COB.

 

[Wheels]

Be that as it may, I think we still get to +3% after the day is over. Got my fingers crossed.

Between 1% and 2%, no 3%

Dave
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[Wheels]

Far East portion of EAFE up 2.56%.

Dave
<><

 

[Wheels]

Between 1% and 2%, no 3%

Wrong again. 2.1%.

A full 3% better than what I am getting in the S today. Ouch.

Dave
<><

 

[fabijo]

Of course. I am not surprised that the I Fund will be 19.39 today, since I jumped out yesterday. Again, that's what happens when I ignore the charts. Oh, well. I'll jump in on the next drop.

 

[FundSurfer]

Wrong again. 2.1%.

A full 3% better than what I am getting in the S today.

It ain't over yet. I'm betting they take back the FV today and maybe then some. The dollar turned around and is now back positive. With the US markets sinking as much as they did late, I'd think that an FV in the other direction may be in order.

 

[fabijo]

hmm FundSurfer, you may be right. At least against the Euro, the dollar is back to the levels of yesterday. And today's American markets losing ground, they may be expecting Asia to react tonight. Let's see.

 

[frokker]

$19.23 for today.

 

[ebbnflow]

I Fund gained only +.10 cents from 19.13 to 19.23 today. The FV owed yesterday was corrected (-.14 cents), but another FV of -.16 cents was assessed. Altogether -.30 cents was taken off the I Fund. I'm not complaining as long as they give it back tomorrow because I'm back on the F Fund come Monday.

 

[frokker]

See, here we have BACK TO BACK days of the FV's. With a correction thrown in for good measure. This is like the 5th FV in the last 8 or 9 days!

TSP says they do FV's about 20% of the time. (approx 4 times a month!) I have since emailed them and I have yet to receive a reply. I'd LOVE to read what they have to say about these ever other day FV's!!

 

[Wheels]

I have since emailed them and I have yet to receive a reply. I'd LOVE to read what they have to say about these ever other day FV's!!

You might have better luck asking Barclays Global Investing. They are the ones actually doing the FV'ing.

Dave
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