ebbnflow
Ebbchart
I meant down, sorry. :cheesy:
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Playing the I fund
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
I meant down, sorry. :cheesy:
sugarandspice
Well-known member
Boy was that a dumb idea......I'm surprised you didn't do it Sugar.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
funny... I thought you said you were getting out of the market because you suspected a pullback. note: when I came across this I figured it looked like a Monday QB dance, and looking at the earlier post I'd say we have a lucky monkey saying - yeah, I planned it that way...
350zCommTech
Well-known member
How was that a dumb idea? I don't recall anybody here thinking the Fed would be so dovish and the market would rally 100 points. Everybody that was in the market today and benifitted from the rally got LUCKY, plain and simple.
If the Fed had been hawkish and the market had tanked, would that have been a great idea?
For me, I don't ever let outcomes, bad or good, affect my decision making process for the future. I chalk it up as bad luck.
ATCJeff
Well-known member
350zCommTech
Well-known member
I'm expecting a +17 cents FV for a total of 12 cents tonight.
ATCJeff
Well-known member
anybody have a guess on the pin action tomorrow.......
I'm thinking we could see an additional 1.5% (not cumulative) in the all three funds!
My thinking is we could see alot of money come in from the sidelines.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
anybody have a guess on the pin action tomorrow.......
I'm thinking we could see an additional 1.5% (not cumulative) in the all three funds!
Todays rally left all the funds at the top of their current range. If the USM moves up again tomorrow, it will be a blessing and a perfect time to take profit.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
The_Technician
Active member
Yeap your right....whatever...I suppose noone could possibly have thought that.....
ATCJeff
Well-known member
I'm not so sure anymore. I feel the dollar has finally entered a downward trend. We could possibly see all the indexes break out on top.
You have to go with Birchtree on this one, we may see a huge inflow of money from the sidelines after today's FOMC statement. This bull doesn't want any riders but my feeling is tomorrow many people will join the bullish talk about the market and Joe investor will pick up the phone and place his order. Tomorrow has the potential to be a very big day in the US markets.
Another thing. There has to be many shorts that are real close to being squeezed. Think of all the doom and gloom talk we heard over the last month or so. Many short traders are going to be caught on the wrong side tomorrow.
If we have a good manufacturing report in the morning, watch out!
Just my two cents......
TiCKed
Member
Will be interesting to see if it's that much....
Reason being, I'm also invested in the Vanguard Total International Fund, which has similar FV rules. They just posted prices for the day....and came up with No Change.
I haven't done any serious comparisons, but I wonder if they are generally less aggressive in their FV calculations since they have other rules preventing trading in-and-out.
(Sorry if this is only interesting to me.)
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Jeff,
That is a good point. As for the ISM, I think if it comes lower than expected, bond yields will fall again and USM will rally, as long as it doesn't come in too low(45 or less). Ofcourse, the dollar will fall too.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Jlpost, your first post, great! Yep, I got it ready and I'll post it tonight with a chart showing how the new ebbtracker did from Jan. 16 to Jan. 31 as compared to the I-fund. It's a real eye opener, at least for me. I would have been invested in stocks only half of the time (six days out of twelve) and gotten almost double the I-fund's gain.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Will be interesting to see if it's that much....
Reason being, I'm also invested in the Vanguard Total International Fund, which has similar FV rules. They just posted prices for the day....and came up with No Change.
I haven't done any serious comparisons, but I wonder if they are generally less aggressive in their FV calculations since they have other rules preventing trading in-and-out.
(Sorry if this is only interesting to me.)
No, no, I find it interesting that they didn't FV. Does Vanguard manage the FV process? Does Vanguard have their own international index or do they use MSCI's EAFE or something similar? And have they apllied FV's on the same days as our I fund?
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