Playing the I fund

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Fabijo,
I also am seriously considering the G fund for many reasons. Take a look at Spaf's comments in the Market Talk thread.
 
roguewave said:
With theYen Carry Trade in full force and the US Fed walking a tight rope between destroying the domestic housing market or having foreign investors dump US Bonds in a stampede like fashion, look for the I Fund to do very well over the next three months, unless of course, the CB's try to coordinate another commodity shakeout.
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I agree, and it will be interesting to see if the BOJ will allowed to do their job at their next meeting. If not, we continue to go up.
 
ATCJeff said:
As of right now, I see no reason to get out of this market......
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Not saying it's a bad market, but why ride the share price back down when you can take profits and ride it back up, taking further profits?

It all depends on whether you are a "buy and holder" or a "day trader";)
 
qibovin said:
Feel free to confirm my complete ignorance of how these factors actually effect and/or reflect the actual I fund, but given the huge afternoon moves in the USM and the dollar, and the EAF, was this a somewhat conservative FV. And if so, does that mean that we are at least starting tomorrow in the black, even with the FV correction?
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Yes, yesterday's FV was very conservative. Barclays decided to not use the change in the dollar, which was significant enough. It seems like once I have them figured out, they make a change to their policy.

At the time of your question, we were 4 cents in the hole, after FV correction. We are doing much better now!:)
 
Rod said:
Not saying it's a bad market, but why ride the share price back down when you can take profits and ride it back up, taking further profits?

It all depends on whether you are a "buy and holder" or a "day trader";)
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Oh I agree, but I just don't see the down trend right now. I think were not at the top right now. Plus I'm a believer that the dollar has turned the corner into a downward trend once again. That's why I have 50% in the I.
 
ATCJeff said:
Oh I agree, but I just don't see the down trend right now. I think were not at the top right now. Plus I'm a believer that the dollar has turned the corner into a downward trend once again. That's why I have 50% in the I.
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I may bet on being at the top of the (I) after today.

At least we're all in decent shape!:)
 
350zCommTech said:
I agree, and it will be interesting to see if the BOJ will allowed to do their job at their next meeting. If not, we continue to go up.
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350, you're a quick study. Don't fight the juice that the BOJ is providing the Hedge fund guys which allows them to borrow darn near interest free and make the spread on US and Euro Bonds. If the BOJ should actually follow through and start to increase rates in earnest, then these markets will get much more volatile then they are now, but until then, ride the trend, it's been in place for a few years now. Many thanks for your precision reporting.
 
CURRENCIES
Dollar falls vs. yen; flat vs. euro

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell against the yen and traded flat versus the euro early Thursday, after a pair of U.S. government reports showing tamer-than-expected core inflation and initial jobless claims at a two-week low.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/dollar-falls-vs-yen-flat/story.aspx?guid={325766CF-7E8C-4477-AD4D-5CD4ADBDD749}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo
 
Rod said:
I may bet on being at the top of the (I) after today.

At least we're all in decent shape!:)
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Here's a good read.....

At the precise moment the yield on the ten year note fell through 4.85 support (200 dma), equities exploded to the upside. Obviously, computers were programmed to that conditional and off they went. TNX stopped right at 10 DMA support, 48.23, and until that falls, the uptrend (downtrend in bonds) is still intact. It will be interesting to see what happens with any attempt to reconquer 48.51.
I had commented on Monday, link, pthat my favorite contrarian indicator, a writer at MW that always misses the turns, was calling for an imminent correction and that tempered my short term bearish bias. I also mentioned the following: If yields keep climbing, short the rallies (like today), but if a rally starts forming while yields are falling, don't stand in front of that train. I hope you followed that advice. I still think Q1 could see a correction, but we might have a scenario similar to early 2000 when we saw one more push higher that wiped out all the shorts before the April collapse. Since we did have an April collapse last year, and the markets rarely repeat identical bearish scenarios year over year, a correction would either come next month, or later in the year. It's not about if, but about when, as usual. Traders should just follow the gyrations of the ten year yield. Keep it simple. Short equity rallies on yields above 4.85% and long below, if the trend is pointing further down. So far, we just witnessed an oversold bounce from bonds, that does not mean rates are going to fall off the cliff tomorrow. In conclusion, watch the chart of TNX, which I will post again.
ES is trading above its weekly R1 (1442.50) and that could set up R2 at 1457.50, a hair above 1450 for the cash index. That should calm things down after the usual post fed excitement. In fact, it might happen before that level, at least in the interim. The VIX is back down in lala land, where we have recently seen repeated pullbacks in equities, so be careful and don't buy all the hype. Trade this market day by day, watching bonds, especially ZN. Oil hit 58 secondary weekly resistance.

http://aheadofthenews.com/
 
350zCommTech said:
Jeff,

That is a good point. As for the ISM, I think if it comes lower than expected, bond yields will fall again and USM will rally, as long as it doesn't come in too low(45 or less). Ofcourse, the dollar will fall too.:D
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ISM just came in at 49. Below 50 suggest contraction. Multiple manufacturing numbers below 50( yesterday's PMI at 48) suggests recession is coming. Yields and dollar are falling.
 
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