Playing the I fund

[ayla]

ayla,

while you're here, what was you're interpretation of today's $VIX?

One wild possibility is that the VIX "peak event" is possibly over until the next event in 5 to 7 months(or whenever). We know that it is very cyclical and that we seemed to be heading for it especially with the crossover of the 20 SMA over the 50 SMA (which has now reversed for anyone who hasn't noticed).

Could Dec 7th have been the peak? Reason I think this even possible is the time frame. Seems that the cyclical nature of the periodic VIX peak events seems to be a fairly regular time interval. And Dec 7th would have been about the right time. Also, consider the "peak event" on Jan 20th of last year, it was a very "non-notable" event as well so there is a bit of a precedent.

The argument to make to oppose my suggestion here is that the VIX values never got above its 200 SMA. One could build a case saying that since the peak event in June was fairly large compared to ones in the previous 12 months, perhaps there was a balancing process that caused this "peak event" to be very small.

Hey, I like to speculate a lot. I'm not basing this on much technical analysis (maybe just wishful thinking) except simply looking for symmetry and thinking that the symetrical thing for the VIX to do right now is to continue on a downward spiral until the next event in maybe in May or June (or whenever)...

To be really wishy washy - I guess I can argue either way. I see that the VIX %k stochastic had similar values and a couple of days serious downturn on April 19th and April 20th of this year which was a precursor to the drop that started May 9th.

Crazy time, IMO.

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey, I like to speculate a lot. I'm not basing this on much technical analysis (maybe just wishful thinking) except simply looking for symmetry and thinking that the symetrical thing for the VIX to do right now is to continue on a downward spiral until the next event in maybe in May or June (or whenever)...

To be really wishy washy - I guess I can argue either way. I see that the VIX %k stochastic had similar values and a couple of days serious downturn on April 19th and April 20th of this year which was a precursor to the drop that started May 9th.

Crazy time, IMO.

I'm more concern about the short term(days) at the moment. When the crash comes, I don't believe the $VIX will warn us until after we take a 1-2 day hit. Today for example, the $VIX has once again dropped to 10, so I think a short term pullback is coming next week. What do you about the $VIX dropping to 10?

 

[ayla]

I'm more concern about the short term(days) at the moment. When the crash comes, I don't believe the $VIX will warn us until after we take a 1-2 day hit. Today for example, the $VIX has once again dropped to 10, so I think a short term pullback is coming next week. What do you about the $VIX dropping to 10?

Yes I agree about the 1 or 2 day hit before the warning from the VIX but that is still helpful IMO.

As far as short term for the VIX, I don't have the knowledge about option puts that is necessary to be able to evaluate. Here is one fairly recent article pretty much over my head at http://tinyurl.com/ueooo
or http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200701111545DOWJONESDJONLINE000940_FORTUNE5.htm

I think the market seems to be "on a freakin' bull run" in the opinion of some. But please only consider my agreement with this opinion in light of my VERY limited experience with this stuff.

So yes, I wouldn't be surprised if the VIX went down to 10 which doesn't mean a pullback to me for the market but does mean a pullback for the VIX - I assume that is what you meant.

To reach the peak that most are leery of, the VIX would have to make at least a 27% jump just to reach its 200 SMA much less actually form some sort of peak above that as it has in the past. There needs also of course for the 20 day SMA to crossover the 50 day to re-occur - so since all that takes time, as a minimum, I can't see the VIX hurting the market next week and it possibly will help at least in the short term.

With all three funds being very oversold at nearly the same time this past week, it has the feel (to me) of a race that is just about to take off or maybe it took off today.

 

[Oldcoin]

sorry for the double post.

 

[Oldcoin]

I'm more concern about the short term(days) at the moment. When the crash comes, I don't believe the $VIX will warn us until after we take a 1-2 day hit. Today for example, the $VIX has once again dropped to 10, so I think a short term pullback is coming next week. What do you about the $VIX dropping to 10?

http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Yesterday we had discussed the rising channel on the VIX that was a trend which correlated with a down
movement trend for the market.

As long as the VIX remained in its upward channel, the pressure on the market would be to move down.

This morning, the VIX broke through the bottom support of the VIX channel which means that the VIX will now
move down to each fan line support level and test it. See the chart below ...

This was posted last week about the VIX. Good read, pretty chart :cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

"However, should we see the Dollar drop down to 77.00ish, we are in a high risk situation of a devaluation of the dollar all the way down to 40.00".
Excellent graph on the dollar, otherwise Bobby is crazy.

http://safehaven.com/article-6696.htm

 

[Wheels]

Nice little pop from Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia tonight. That'll give the I fund a little head start for Tuesday.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

dollar continuing lower slighty -.04

 

[James48843]

Nikkei up big. +0.90%

Dax up big. +0.42%

CAC up +0.22%

FTSE up +0.45%

Dollar split- slightly higher against Yen, slightly down agains Euro.

Looks like a very, very postive day for the "I".

 

[James48843]

Since nobody else tried to calculate the affect on the "I" price from today's action, I'll take a stab at it.

I'd say we're looking about about a plus 8 cents. Maybe only 7 cents, but could be 8 cents.

 

[Wheels]

Since nobody else tried to calculate the affect on the "I" price from today's action, I'll take a stab at it.

I'd say we're looking about about a plus 8 cents. Maybe only 7 cents, but could be 8 cents.

Morgan Stanley says .756% or 17 cents to 22.31.
However, without the influence of U.S. market action, I would sort of expect Asia to give back some of those gains tonight. Europe too, except that Europe could then be positively influenced by U.S. markets tomorrow if we get a little something going on.

 

[nnuut]

Morgan Stanley says .756% or 17 cents to 17.31.
However, without the influence of U.S. market action, I would sort of expect Asia to give back some of those gains tonight. Europe too, except that Europe could then be positively influenced by U.S. markets tomorrow if we get a little something going on.

You mean $22.31, right?

 

[Wheels]

You mean $22.31, right?

Yep. Correction made.

 

[ebbnflow]

I-fund up +.03 cents tonight as of 2:50 A.M. ET. FTSE expected to open 8 to 10 points lower.

 

[Griffin]

World stock markets performed well yesterday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070115/world_markets.html?.v=3

The dollar index is taking a hit today, so far to the tune of about .24%.

Go I-fund!

 

[350zCommTech]

Early Estimate: Down .295% (-7)+ yesterday's .759% (17) = 10 cents total.

 

[James48843]

Anybody think that TSP will screw it up, and forgot the trading yesterday, like they did back when Gerry Ford gave us the day off?

 

[350zCommTech]

Anybody think that TSP will screw it up, and forgot the trading yesterday, like they did back when Gerry Ford gave us the day off?

I don't think so, because yesterday was a reoccuring holiday. Gerarld Ford's was on short notice.

 

[350zCommTech]

Down .524% or -12 cents, + yesterdays 17 = 5 cents total.

 

[weatherweenie]

Eafe -0.492%