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Playing the I fund
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
I meant in general. If currency moves through the afternoon, the increase (or decrease) is not reflected in today's index price, and does not trigger an FV, can anyone here predict the change from closing price of the index today to the opening price tomorrow?
350zCommTech
Well-known member
I knew what you meant. And Yes I can predict the change from closing price of the index to the opening price of tomorrow. I do this all day, every day. Unless I'm working day shift.
I can tell you right now what it's doing.
Last edited:
350zCommTech
Well-known member
I've said this before and I'll say it again. That EFA is almost completely useless. The ONLY thing I use it for is to guage the possibility of a FV. I know that Frizz thinks he's on to something by tracking the differences and thinking that the actual MSCI EAFE will eventually catch up and pay the difference. I totally disagree with him. He made a prediction 2 days ago and he was wrong. I hope you're not trying to do what he's doing.
So what do you track to follow the I fund?
350zCommTech
Well-known member
I use a spread sheet that I developed. It's a lot of data entry, but the end result is the current I fund gain/loss, there's no guessing involved.
sugarandspice
Well-known member
EAFE says -.015% Probably be a wash today.
ayla
Member
Me too. I just started a couple months ago. I like knowing what is really going on. It did take some work. I keep thinking of some other way I want to look at the data. I've got numerous "alarms" set up for when crossovers happen etc. Always more to do.
I just added the stoachastic indicators for %k, %k(slow) and %d(slow) (from stockcarts.com tutorial section) and am amazed at some of the clues you can get.
We'll see how this works as far as real results. At least I think I'm protected from being as damaged as I was after the May 9th pullback this year. I stayed in and then I started jumping around. Won't happen the same way again if I take the time to look at my data (and keep it updated).
Does take time. Fact that I'm retired helps a lot.
Linear Prediction (LN)
This command performs either forward or backward linear prediction, depending on parameters set by the user. Backward prediction can be used to correct corrupted early data points, which cause rolling baselines. Forward prediction is used to predict data out to twice the actual acquisition time, and is used with severely truncated data, such as in the indirect dimension of 2D experiments as an alternative to zero-filling. :blink:
This command performs either forward or backward linear prediction, depending on parameters set by the user. Backward prediction can be used to correct corrupted early data points, which cause rolling baselines. Forward prediction is used to predict data out to twice the actual acquisition time, and is used with severely truncated data, such as in the indirect dimension of 2D experiments as an alternative to zero-filling. :blink:
Sugarandspice's evening posts. :nuts:
fedgolfer
Well-known member
If the I-fund price takes and closes with a big hit today, it could close below the lower trend line of a rising wedge that has been the I-fund's chart pattern since JULY. That bottom trend line sits at approximately at the 10-day MA of $21.13. The 20-day MA could provide support at $21.00, below that is the 50day MA of $20.48. Should be increased and more volatile swings in the upcoming days for I... anyone want to guess a support level/buying op?
http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/risingWedge.html
http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/risingWedge.html
fedgolfer
Well-known member
... EFA price on my TDAmeritrade account is crossing the lower SAR right now (9:38 AM EST), when it does that its a clear sell signal. EFA already -1.15% and dollar rising. It will be interesting to see if the market reacts more negatively to this and to what degree.
You're right. The increase in EFA is entirely due to the sudden drop in the dollar. It seems to be caused by rumors of the imminent collapse of a major U.S. hedge fund (see market talk a little while ago). If the rumors are discounted by afternoon, dollar should recover with predictable effects. I don't know what would happen if a big hedge fund actually collapsed.
FundSurfer
Well-known member
I have it at -0.4% at 11:10.
This is reminiscent of 1998, when Long Term Capital investments caused a big correction in the markets. Anyone know how big a hedge fund this is, or what is to be expected in terms of an additional negative impact on the stock market?.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pilgrim
Dollar falls on talk of problems at hedge fund
By Wanfeng Zhou
Last Update: 10:47 AM ET Nov 17, 2006
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell against the euro and yen in mid-morning trade Friday on market talk that a major hedge fund is in trouble."Rumors of a major U.S. hedge fund collapse appear to be behind the dollar's latest dip," said Brian Dolan, director of research at Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital. Others traders said the speculation centers on Citadel Investment Group. The euro was last up 0.3% at $1.2833, while the dollar fell 0.5% at 117.60 yen.
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