Griffin
Well-known member
MSCI -.0074 today. Gotta be a FV, but Dollar Index +.021.Help Me!:nuts:
Definetly going to be an FV tonight.
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Playing the I fund
- Thread starter clester
- Start date
Definetly going to be an FV tonight.
Show-me
Well-known member
Dollar index is dropping and stock are rocking. Got to be a FV day!
MSCI -.0074 today. Gotta be a FV, but Dollar Index +.021.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Oldcoin
Member
The U.S. generally will pull the foreign markets up after a big day like today. So with the FV in place it mutes the amount of movement because the jump is already factored into the fund. Of course I could be wrong on this……but what the hay, made sense when I typed it.
Gilligan
Member
I just got back to this side of the island. It will take me a day or two to catch up, but it does look like a +15 cent FV is possible.
Guys/Gals -
I have been in the F fund since yesterday, and missed this rally. For sure this rally also took many analysts by surprise. So, I am humbled by my market timing expectations, but at least I might gain a bit by being in the F fund. I did follow Nnuut and FunSurfer as they jumped back in before noon, but failed to take advantage of the situarion. Congratulations. Great decision! I keep learning from you all! Will this rally last a bit or is this an exhaustion rally? --
I have been in the F fund since yesterday, and missed this rally. For sure this rally also took many analysts by surprise. So, I am humbled by my market timing expectations, but at least I might gain a bit by being in the F fund. I did follow Nnuut and FunSurfer as they jumped back in before noon, but failed to take advantage of the situarion. Congratulations. Great decision! I keep learning from you all! Will this rally last a bit or is this an exhaustion rally? --
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
I backed off the "I" a little today, was 50% "C" and 50% "I", went to 50% "C", 25% "I", 25% "F" for tomorrow. Dollar was in uptrend but backed off some when Oil went up a little. Thought there might be FV today in the "I", that can turn around tomorrow. Will just wait and see what happens tomorrow, if this isn't the big RALLY I may go to the "G" for Friday or Monday.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
When looking at the EAFE on http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/stdindex/performance.jsp is the I fund going to play off the performance in local currency, or US dollars?
Either way, here's what appears to be another case where the EFA goes up just over 1%, while the EAFE goes up 0.223% in local currency, and actually goes DOWN (0.074%) in US dollars!!!
Either way, here's what appears to be another case where the EFA goes up just over 1%, while the EAFE goes up 0.223% in local currency, and actually goes DOWN (0.074%) in US dollars!!!
Griffin
Well-known member
Well that's about a 1% FV on the I-Fund today. Even if tomorrow is up another 1%, we won't see a penny for those of us that moved in today unless we get a real significant drop in the dollar.
It may be worth taking a shot at moving to the domestics tomorrow, on the off chance that the FV does not get corrected immediately.
It may be worth taking a shot at moving to the domestics tomorrow, on the off chance that the FV does not get corrected immediately.
James48843
Well-known member
So- what's the consensus?
Is it too late to join the bulls and run back into stocks tomorrow?
Or should we try to run with the herd and jump back in?
Is it too late to join the bulls and run back into stocks tomorrow?
Or should we try to run with the herd and jump back in?
Griffin
Well-known member
James, I believe we have about one more day of big gains, then we are going to see some sideways action for a day maybe three. We have a very narrow, very steep channel forming. It will only take a few days of sideway's action in order for the top of the channel to become the bottom of the channel. Historically, trying to time this type of channel is virtually impossible. You definitely want to be in. However, this growth rate is completely unsustainable for any extended period of time, so we are setting up for a pullback. The higher we go, the farther we fall.
I think a ballpark estimate is that May's highs will be this next pullback's lows. So every inch of gain will be retraced. There is definitely opportunity to make some gains during all of this. Watch the S&P channel and when it breaks below it, get out.
My recommendation is stay in stocks and watch the dollar.
Gilligan
Member
We got about a +20 cent FV today!
weatherweenie
Well-known member
Is 20.40 a new high for the I fund?
Gilligan
Member
$20.95 is the high which was on May 9, 2006.
I must be learning something from reading these boards because this actually made sense to me.
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