Playing the I fund

I'm not sure what you are asking. All that this formula shows is EAFE in local currency - EAFE in U.S. dollars = the effect of the dollar for that day. There is nothing to "work".

While I don't want to speak for Gilligan I'll hazard a guess at what he is doing. He is watching the overseas markets. At 11:30 all of Asia is closed. He knows the Nikkei 300 makes up about a fourth of the EAFE. He probably knows what Australia and some of the other Pacific rim countries make up too. He also knows that Europe is almost closed and that the FTSE makes up about another fourth of the EAFE and he probably knows what some of the European percentages are too. From this he is able to come up with an estimate of the EAFE in local currency. Now, technically at this point he would need to compare each local currency to the dollar AT THE TIME each of those markets closed. But that seems way to labor intensive. So instead he probably just looks at the dollar index at 11:30 and applies that to the local currency and generates his estimate. Fortunately for us, the make up of the dollar index is pretty close to the make up of currencies in our I fund. So at 3:00pm when MSCI shows us the real figures, we can subtract the EAFE in U.S. dollars from the EAFE in local currency and the result should be awfully close to the dollar index figure that Gilligan uses at 11:30. Any differences would be attributed to slight difference in weighting and more likely to the timing of each markets close.

Gilligan was I close?

Sponsor, did I make any sense to you?
Wheels,
Thanks for explaining it, I have never been good at algebra or calculus. I just seem to trip over some numbers and somehow how get close to falling on the closing price. One day I might hit the bullseye and the next day I’ll be off by 10 cents.
 
Very reasonable explanation! Now we need Gilligan ro confirm this, --

Sponsor,
I’ll go to the other side of the island and let you post an estimate for the next couple of days. If your have any problems, Fundsurfer or Fabijo can help, they have been close on their estimates.
 
I'm not sure what you are asking. All that this formula shows is EAFE in local currency - EAFE in U.S. dollars = the effect of the dollar for that day. There is nothing to "work".

While I don't want to speak for Gilligan I'll hazard a guess at what he is doing. He is watching the overseas markets. At 11:30 all of Asia is closed. He knows the Nikkei 300 makes up about a fourth of the EAFE. He probably knows what Australia and some of the other Pacific rim countries make up too. He also knows that Europe is almost closed and that the FTSE makes up about another fourth of the EAFE and he probably knows what some of the European percentages are too. From this he is able to come up with an estimate of the EAFE in local currency. Now, technically at this point he would need to compare each local currency to the dollar AT THE TIME each of those markets closed. But that seems way to labor intensive. So instead he probably just looks at the dollar index at 11:30 and applies that to the local currency and generates his estimate. Fortunately for us, the make up of the dollar index is pretty close to the make up of currencies in our I fund. So at 3:00pm when MSCI shows us the real figures, we can subtract the EAFE in U.S. dollars from the EAFE in local currency and the result should be awfully close to the dollar index figure that Gilligan uses at 11:30. Any differences would be attributed to slight difference in weighting and more likely to the timing of each markets close.

Gilligan was I close?

Sponsor, did I make any sense to you?
--

Gilligan, I am not good at numbers at all. I must defer to others with better skills, but eventually I will go for the idea. If I don't find the exact numbers alluded to by Wheels, it will be vwey hard to do so! --
 
Nikkei up 0.79%
CAC up a little
DAX up a little
FSTE up a little.

Dollar down agains the Euro, yet up against the yen.

Overall- looks like its stacking up for yet another green day for the "I" fund.
 
A number of people are jumping into I fund for tomorrow. I wonder, since the dollar is down about 0.5% today, what is the historical likelihood of a down day again tomorrow?
 
I was going to make a play to the I because I thought it might set-up good for an FV steal today but the stampede by members to the I fund is spooking me out. It seems to easy. I'm suspicious. So I'm waiting.
 
SugarandSpice -
could you elaborate a bit on how to make an FV steal?



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Re: Playing the I fund
"I was going to make a play to the I because I thought it might set-up good for an FV steal today but the stampede by members to the I fund is spooking me out. It seems to easy. I'm suspicious. So I'm waiting."
 
It's just an educated guess. I thought that the market will give back later today and the dollar will regain it's strength as well so it would create an FV situation that they(tsp) will have to give back for tomorrows price. It's a guess.

Has there ever been a bigger run to the I fund?
 
I was going to make a play to the I because I thought it might set-up good for an FV steal today but the stampede by members to the I fund is spooking me out. It seems to easy. I'm suspicious. So I'm waiting.

I was thinking the same but now I see that we are a herd. Good or bad I'm all in.
 
It looks like most people were following EbbnFlow's tracker's recommendation...

Well, if I was going to use something that would be a good choice. You can't argue with the results.


Results are in at EAFE

+.71% which should be .14 cent gain. Any major adjustment from that would be an FV and if the market slides harder from here it is a good possibility.
 
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Man, I see the $iee symbol no longer works! Now how will I ever be able to play the I fund? I don't trust EFA as much.
 
Man, I see the $iee symbol no longer works! Now how will I ever be able to play the I fund? I don't trust EFA as much.

I just found this info on Bloomberg.com:

The iShares MSCI E.A.F.E IOPV is an indication of the estimated current value of EFA Equity, the iShares MSCI E.A.F.E Index Fund. The fund is designed to correspond to the performance of the MSCI E.A.F.E Index. The IOPV calculation is based in U.S. Dollars. Effective Sept 28, 2006 this index ticker has changed to EFAIV.

I just haven't been able to find this symbol on stockcharts.com
 
I fund was rewarded mighty high today.....Didn't think the overseas markets really performed today....dollar lost a liittle luster....

Makes you wonder about todays MSCI Local value to tell you the truth.....I wonder if they every made a mistake before and added an FV..:confused:

I hope to get out of there in the positive just to keep the streak going.....
 
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