Playing the I fund

[Wheels]

deleted

 

[Gilligan]

Thanks Gilligan. I know about the link... that seems to update soon after 3pm EST. What I don't know is where you get the local currency figure from and the dollar figure from so early in the day? Thanks again.

I wish I had a link that would show the closing prices or the local currency, now only for the current day but also the next day!

 

[Gilligan]

Thanks for posting this change. ASAP please explain where in that site do you get the other numbers which you cited but which I am not able to confirm. Thanks Gilligan! And, have a great weekend. --

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilligan
http://www.mscibarra.com/products/in...erformance.jsp
Just make sure the date on the top of the page is correct.
The I fund follows the EAFE, the first one on the list.
Today the local currency was +0.191%, the dollar was higher at +0.233%, so the USD price was -0.042%

The only number that is not listed is the +0.233% for the dollar. I get that by figuring the difference between the LC and the USD.

 

[Gilligan]

Give it up Gilligan!:nuts:

No, not even if you put me on an uncharted island!

 

[Gilligan]

The dollar has really been playing havoc with the I-fund in September keeping a damper on our gains. The dollar is 1.264% higher now that it was at the first of the month. That means if the dollar was at the same level it was a month ago the I fund would be about 25 cents higher to $20.40

 

[nnuut]

No, not even if you put me on an uncharted island!

Hee! Hee! Thats the spirit!

 

[airlift]

Gilligan,--

As you can see and savor, we are going nuts trying to figure out the Coca Cola formula as well as your formula for calculating the good numbers at 11:30AM! When I divide .042 (the daily USD) by .191 LC, I get .21989 and not +.233%. What am I missing? --

I had to interrupt my excellent week-end retreat just to keep in touch. But,even if you don't want to give up the ghost, I know it was a nice try! lol --

The only number that is not listed is the +0.233% for the dollar. I get that by figuring the difference between the LC and the USD.

 

[Gilligan]

Gilligan,--

As you can see and savor, we are going nuts trying to figure out the Coca Cola formula as well as your formula for calculating the good numbers at 11:30AM! When I divide .042 (the daily USD) by .191 LC, I get .21989 and not +.233%. What am I missing? --

I had to interrupt my excellent week-end retreat just to keep in touch. But,even if you don't want to give up the ghost, I know it was a nice try! lol --

.191 + .042 = .233

 

[Wheels]

.191 + .042 = .233

Actually it's .191 - (.042) = .233.

Subtle difference with the same result. The reason it's significant though is because you want to subtract one from the other, not necessarily add them together. Make sense?

 

[airlift]

Gilligan and Wheels, --

Thank you!. Gilligan, since these numbers are accesible on the MSCI site and they don't post them until the PM, how do you extrapolate the projection ae 11:30? Wheels, based on your experience, will this work out all the time, irrespective of whether one adds or subtracts the numbers?

.191 + .042 = .233

 

[Wheels]

Gilligan and Wheels, --

Thank you!. Gilligan, since these numbers are accesible on the MSCI site and they don't post them until the PM, how do you extrapolate the projection ae 11:30? Wheels, based on your experience, will this work out all the time, irrespective of whether one adds or subtracts the numbers?

I'm not sure what you are asking. All that this formula shows is EAFE in local currency - EAFE in U.S. dollars = the effect of the dollar for that day. There is nothing to "work".

While I don't want to speak for Gilligan I'll hazard a guess at what he is doing. He is watching the overseas markets. At 11:30 all of Asia is closed. He knows the Nikkei 300 makes up about a fourth of the EAFE. He probably knows what Australia and some of the other Pacific rim countries make up too. He also knows that Europe is almost closed and that the FTSE makes up about another fourth of the EAFE and he probably knows what some of the European percentages are too. From this he is able to come up with an estimate of the EAFE in local currency. Now, technically at this point he would need to compare each local currency to the dollar AT THE TIME each of those markets closed. But that seems way to labor intensive. So instead he probably just looks at the dollar index at 11:30 and applies that to the local currency and generates his estimate. Fortunately for us, the make up of the dollar index is pretty close to the make up of currencies in our I fund. So at 3:00pm when MSCI shows us the real figures, we can subtract the EAFE in U.S. dollars from the EAFE in local currency and the result should be awfully close to the dollar index figure that Gilligan uses at 11:30. Any differences would be attributed to slight difference in weighting and more likely to the timing of each markets close.

Gilligan was I close?

Sponsor, did I make any sense to you?

 

[airlift]

Very reasonable explanation! Now we need Gilligan ro confirm this, --

 

[Oldcoin]

I cannot find today's $iee anywhere. I went to prophet.net and stockcharts.com and they both show yesterday's closing price.

Fabijo, did you ever get a fix on the problem? I checked back with both sites and it's the same old thing. I'm using a Yahoo chart, but it's not the same. I think I'm starting to go through withdrawal.

 

[fabijo]

Fabijo, did you ever get a fix on the problem? I checked back with both sites and it's the same old thing. I'm using a Yahoo chart, but it's not the same. I think I'm starting to go through withdrawal.

I'm also going through withdrawal. I hope the charts come back!!! How will I make my trading decisions without these charts?

 

[fabijo]

Gilligan and Wheels, --

Thank you!. Gilligan, since these numbers are accesible on the MSCI site and they don't post them until the PM, how do you extrapolate the projection ae 11:30? Wheels, based on your experience, will this work out all the time, irrespective of whether one adds or subtracts the numbers?

I know that you can go to www.bloomberg.com and use the symbol MXEA to get the latest index values in the local currency.

 

[Oldcoin]

I'm also going through withdrawal. I hope the charts come back!!! How will I make my trading decisions without these charts?

Maybe we’ll have to switch to the C Fund with BirchTree, naw, that chart doesn’t look so good!

 

[Birchtree]

Oldcoin,,

The C fund is so nefarious that only those who dare to engage the dark side should attempt investing with such defiant risk. Keep close to the G fund and protect your pockets during the next three months. Leave the pultry pickings to the bullmeister to squander. If you dare come on over anytime.

 

[fabijo]

So far, Nikkei is looking good for the night. Will smart money sell at the end of the day?

 

[Oldcoin]

Oldcoin,,

The C fund is so nefarious that only those who dare to engage the dark side should attempt investing with such defiant risk. Keep close to the G fund and protect your pockets during the next three months. Leave the pultry pickings to the bullmeister to squander. If you dare come on over anytime.

Man, you gotta be loving last month! Sure hope you get another just like it or better.

 

[Gilligan]

................ Who'da thought the I Fund would go three days flat-line in a row?

ooo... what a lucky man... he was. :laugh:

Its déjà vu all over again. The last time the share price stayed the same for 3 days were the last 3 days of August, then for the next 2 days the I-fund had some gains then it took a 3.5% drop ($20.33 down to $19.61). Its tempting to get back in the I-fund for a day, but the FV can rob you of your profits.