Playing the I fund

[FundSurfer]

Federal Holidays

 

[fabijo]

Woops!! How did I do that??

 

[fabijo]

Looks like you are pretty close, Gilligan. Should be 20.15 when they correct the FV. I hope they don't correct it!

 

[Oldcoin]

I think I’ll take both Mondays off! It’s a good holiday.

 

[fedgolfer]

Yeah, we'll have to see. A guy I work with said that he'd wait at least another day, but I decided to just go 100% F. That candlestick pattern looks similar to many of the short term tops the I fund has had. I may go back in tomorrow or Friday, but this weekend will be a 3-day weekend (Columbus Day), I could even wait until Tuesday.

What candlestick pattern? EFA or $IEE or something else? Just curious because charting the I fund behavior on an ETF or $IEE seems like a random guessing game to me. The canlesticks in EFA and $iee, for the most part show little similarity and often contradict one another. I'm struggling to make sense of the I-fund. Everytime I've made money in the I, I feel like I was lucky. Every time I made money in G,F,C and S I feel like I did something smart. In other words, I still haven't found the best chart/ticker to use for this sucker. Yet I still I love it... it's the roulette fund in TSP!!!!

 

[fedgolfer]

Probably going to end up being a good move. I'm kicking myself for not reducing my exposure this morning. I was moving in that direction then had second thoughts. I guess we'll know tommorrow.

FS, what was it that made you stay in rather than get defensive? I'm curious because I too should have gotten more defensive and kept a little (15% S & 15%I remainder g&f) in equities for a potential chase. Is it greed that keeps us in and has us ignore our better senses and the charts?

I saw several people put more into equities today, to me it looks like chasing a good thing/euphoria... only time will tell. If history repeats itself could we recognize our psychology/feelings of the market one day in order to tell us where we're going the next? I'm really struggling to make sense of times like this, where the markets overextend the charts... usually only once or twice a year... but still, I'd someone to make some sense of it.

 

[FundSurfer]

My current method calls for me to follow the channels. Once we reach target I look for signs of red to hop off the train. In this way you don't jump out too soon. Between May and September, I'm trying to be much jumpier since the market has less positive bias. We've had a nice run up. We are getting close to the top of the channel for I-fund. This morning initially the markets dropped but then rebounded. Initially when I saw the drop I thought today US MArkets would end down and will lead OSM down tommorrow. I'd want to jump out prior. When US rebounded I was no longer sure. I'm trying to stick to my plan which says it is OK to not hit the exact top and bottom but rather to take the signals the market gives and take what the market supplies. I waited because US was still green and was showing strength. Then the market dove. You then begin to question yourself. Right now I'm in for tommorrow, at 3:00 I was wishing I'd pulled at least some off the table. Tommorrow morning I'll look at it again.

 

[fedgolfer]

Looks like you are pretty close, Gilligan. Should be 20.15 when they correct the FV. I hope they don't correct it!

Bingo! Looks to be the call. How the hell do you guys figure that out... where's a link to the calculation? I'd still like the $20.26 pre-FV.

 

[fedgolfer]

My current method calls for me to follow the channels. Once we reach target I look for signs of red to hop off the train. In this way you don't jump out too soon. Between May and September, I'm trying to be much jumpier since the market has less positive bias. We've had a nice run up. We are getting close to the top of the channel for I-fund. This morning initially the markets dropped but then rebounded. Initially when I saw the drop I thought today US MArkets would end down and will lead OSM down tommorrow. I'd want to jump out prior. When US rebounded I was no longer sure. I'm trying to stick to my plan which says it is OK to not hit the exact top and bottom but rather to take the signals the market gives and take what the market supplies. I waited because US was still green and was showing strength. Then the market dove. You then begin to question yourself. Right now I'm in for tommorrow, at 3:00 I was wishing I'd pulled at least some off the table. Tommorrow morning I'll look at it again.

Cheers! Thanks for elaborating.

 

[James48843]

Bingo! Looks to be the call. How the hell do you guys figure that out... where's a link to the calculation?

SShhhh......

Don't tell anyone, but Gilligan works as a federal worker in the BIG "skunk works".

In the "time travel" division. He simply goes into the transporter booth, goes over to tomorrow, takes a look at the TSP website "share prices", and then beams back to today. So far it only works about 12 hours in advance, but we're working on getting it out two or three days soons. (shhhhhhh...)

Of course, time travel is an absolute tip-top government secret. So don't let anybody know.

Cause my wife will be very, very angry if she finds out what I REALLY do for a living. She thinks I go to work every morning. In reality I just go backwards every day and cover myself to taking tomorrow off.

 

[frokker]

MSCI has it at + 1.281%

What's that come to?

 

[fabijo]

What candlestick pattern? EFA or $IEE or something else? Just curious because charting the I fund behavior on an ETF or $IEE seems like a random guessing game to me. The canlesticks in EFA and $iee, for the most part show little similarity and often contradict one another. I'm struggling to make sense of the I-fund. Everytime I've made money in the I, I feel like I was lucky. Every time I made money in G,F,C and S I feel like I did something smart. In other words, I still haven't found the best chart/ticker to use for this sucker. Yet I still I love it... it's the roulette fund in TSP!!!!

I always use $iee. Today's is a flying doji, but earlier it was looking like a hammer. Since it was near the top of the trading channel, the slow stochastics is at about 70, it was a big gap up, the weekly MACD is weak, and we are in an indecisive time, I just guessed that tomorrow will be a down day. The bears keep fighting this out.

 

[ebbnflow]

G ---
F ---
C ---
S +.08
I +.15

It's all even now folks! They used the -.12 cents FV.

 

[rym2001]

I hope the I will be up tomorrow so i can take my gain.Crossing my fingers.

 

[The_Technician]

G ---
F ---
C ---
S +.08
I +.15

It's all even now folks! They used the -.12 cents FV.

Gilligan gets the "EYE"

of the day....

I figured it would just make it even....didn't know it had it in it......

 

[fabijo]

Nikkei 225 opened higher, but is now -13.01.

 

[fabijo]

Looks like a zig zag, up and down day. It's a tug of war with the bears and the bulls. I wonder if these next few days are decisive times.

 

[Fivetears]

It's a bull ride on the I. It's gonna throw a few riders between now & January 2007. From here on out... you either ride the I... sail the S. Pick your poison, or drink a little of both. If there's gonna be money to be made, It'll be there.

Looks like a zig zag, up and down day. It's a tug of war with the bears and the bulls. I wonder if these next few days are decisive times.

 

[pyriel]

Since they took the FV for Wednesday, this means that we are even steven with Barclay, right?

 

[frokker]

Since they took the FV for Wednesday, this means that we are even steven with Barclay, right?

Yes, they corrected the FV and we are now even.