Playing the I fund

[ebbnflow]

So far the I fund is doing great currency-wise. The dollar is down, the euro and pound are up. The Nikkei is not doing that well, but we all know the dollar affects the I fund's price more.

Here's a real time, U.S. dollar rate: Tick by tick

 

[airlift]

THANK YOU!

So far the I fund is doing great currency-wise. The dollar is down, the euro and pound are up. The Nikkei is not doing that well, but we all know the dollar affects the I fund's price more.

Here's a real time, U.S. dollar rate: Tick by tick

 

[Show-me]

FTSE closed today. How do you play that?:blink:

 

[Gilligan]

So far the I fund is doing great currency-wise. The dollar is down, the euro and pound are up. The Nikkei is not doing that well, but we all know the dollar affects the I fund's price more.

Here's a real time, U.S. dollar rate: Tick by tick

The Pacific markets are are down about -0.833% which is a third of the fund, FTSE is closed. The dollar is falling. At this point in time it looks like the I fund will gain a few cents. If I have time this morning, I'll post my estimate.

 

[airlift]

I didn't know for sure that the dollar affects the I-fund more. For me this is great information. As you stated, the dollar is down today. At this time, according to the Bloomberg website, the CAC and the DAX are up. As noted by Gilligan, "The Pacific markets are are down about -0.833% which is a third of the fund, FTSE is closed." I suppose that if the CAC and the DAX do well until closing at about 11:30 A.M (EST), that combination should balance out for the benefit of those of us in the I-fund. Is this right?

So far the I fund is doing great currency-wise. The dollar is down, the euro and pound are up. The Nikkei is not doing that well, but we all know the dollar affects the I fund's price more.

Here's a real time, U.S. dollar rate: Tick by tick

 

[FundSurfer]

Thinking out loud....

If US stocks end the day up, that will have a positive effect on the start of overseas for tommorrow. US stocks reacting to good news about Ernesto not threatning oil in Gulf. This positive may carry forward as people look to EOM, but there is a lot of economic data this week and the market has been very sensitive to the data lately. (If US markets reverse tommorrow, this can lead the overseas to reverse late and probably to an -FV as well so positive finish to US markets today does not always spell gain for overseas for the next day.)

Oil is dropping. BP is a large part of the I-fund and is UK based. Negative from oil drop may show up in UK tommorrow via BP since FTSE closed today. Iran is also making noise so this can swing on a dime. I expect Iran news to hit with this evening news and may swing oil towards the other direction tommorrow. (I'm going to go shopping for oil stock for my other investments.)

Lower oil prices means less risk of inflation which means less need for the Fed to raise interest rates which means a decline in the value of the dollar (already happening today). Declining dollar means positive bias for the I-fund.

Bottom line: expect volitility in I-fund, seems to be to be slight positive bias for tommorrow if US continues up or at least does not double back. I'm leaning toward more I-fund for tommorrow.

 

[airlift]

FundSurfer,I liked this post a lot, although I missed your intention at the end. This is great reasoning. Many factors out there. IRAN sanctions are coming up on August 31st, which in addition to their blunt insistence of challenging the community of nations, this might offset the good benefits of the historically limited but traditional labor day rally and the end-of-month window dressing by mutual funds, etc. Please clarify, if your intention is to increase your position today or tomorrow. Thank you.

Thinking out loud....

If US stocks end the day up, that will have a positive effect on the start of overseas for tommorrow. US stocks reacting to good news about Ernesto not threatning oil in Gulf. This positive may carry forward as people look to EOM, but there is a lot of economic data this week and the market has been very sensitive to the data lately. (If US markets reverse tommorrow, this can lead the overseas to reverse late and probably to an -FV as well so positive finish to US markets today does not always spell gain for overseas for the next day.)

Oil is dropping. BP is a large part of the I-fund and is UK based. Negative from oil drop may show up in UK tommorrow via BP since FTSE closed today. Iran is also making noise so this can swing on a dime. I expect Iran news to hit with this evening news and may swing oil towards the other direction tommorrow. (I'm going to go shopping for oil stock for my other investments.)

Lower oil prices means less risk of inflation which means less need for the Fed to raise interest rates which means a decline in the value of the dollar (already happening today). Declining dollar means positive bias for the I-fund.

Bottom line: expect volitility in I-fund, seems to be to be slight positive bias for tommorrow if US continues up or at least does not double back. I'm leaning toward more I-fund for tommorrow.

 

[FundSurfer]

Please clarify, if your intention is to increase your position today or tomorrow.

I'm leaning toward increasing I-fund allocation by maybe 20%.

 

[airlift]

I appreciate your input, but when are you considering this. Today, or tomorrow? Reason for trying to understand better is that you recognize, as I do, that IRAN might rattle the markets. In that case, a good entry point would be when the impact of the public statements lower the fund and present a lower buying opportunity. I know nothing is guaranteed but I would appreciate your opinion. Thanks!

I'm leaning toward increasing I-fund allocation by maybe 20%.

 

[FundSurfer]

Reason for trying to understand better is that you recognize, as I do, that IRAN might rattle the markets. In that case, a good entry point would be when the impact of the public statements lower the fund and present a lower buying opportunity. I know nothing is guaranteed but I would appreciate your opinion.

I expect Iran to effect market post Labor day. There is some lag. Iran's last statements had enough questions to give Russia and China wiggle room to delay immediate response to Iran. US will have to work hard to get santions. Iran will not rattle big time until that happens since they will let Russia and China do the heavy lifting until then. Depending on if there is upswing I may step aside. I'm playing agressive with the short term stuff right now. A less agressive approach would be to wait till a pull back occurs in September and then buy I-fund to hold through to January (along with C-fund and S-fund).

 

[airlift]

I increased my I-fund to 50%, and kept 50% in G -- knowing, of course, that I might take a hit. However, I consider FundSurfer's reasoning quite valid, and also consider that Tom Crowley has more experience and more research resources than I do. I figure that if he is willing o keep 50% in C, he must have good reasons. I know that the I-fund drops lower than C. But, it also rises more than C percentage-wise. So, with a declining dollar, end-of-month windoe dressing, the idea that the U.N. stated that troops would be deployed by next week in Lebanon?, and with labor day coming up, I am playing it this way. If geopolitical news hit the markets, I still have 50% in G, which would be dry gunpowder to be used at a lower entry point. Indeed, I Hope this pans-out as I expect. We shall see!

 

[vectorman]

Looks like it may be one of those FV days.:notrust: I wonder if those FV police are able to see all those TSP members jumping into the I fund today.:blink:

 

[Fivetears]

They're all probably card carrying members of TSP Talk. :nuts:

Looks like it may be one of those FV days.:notrust: I wonder if those FV police are able to see all those TSP members jumping into the I fund today.:blink:

 

[FundSurfer]

MSCI taking there time today.....

 

[Show-me]

Looks like it may be one of those FV days.:notrust: I wonder if those FV police are able to see all those TSP members jumping into the I fund today.:blink:

Man I hope they (the FV police) forgot about us.:nuts:

 

[sugarandspice]

G-0
F-0
C+.07
S+.13
I+.06

 

[Show-me]

Ooh, I feel good about that number. Up 0.30% feels real good. I was thinking I was going to get slammed by FV today. The FV police were at the coffee shop. heehee.

 

[Wheels]

Ooh, I feel good about that number. Up 0.30% feels real good. I was thinking I was going to get slammed by FV today. The FV police were at the coffee shop. heehee.

How do you know there wasn't an FV. I haven't seen the MSCI web page updated yet. Do you have an EAFE figure for today?

Dave
<><

 

[Show-me]

How do you know there wasn't an FV. I haven't seen the MSCI web page updated yet. Do you have an EAFE figure for today?

Dave
<><

I don't know if there was a FV. I too have not been able to get the MSCI site to update no matter how hard I hit F5. If there is a FV some where in that 6 cent gain........yippie. I was expecting more when compared to the EFA plus a big FV against me.


Check out that Asian market. Go baby go! Please don't loose it all in the afternoon session.:nuts:

 

[FundSurfer]

That was a 0.3% gain. Europe was positive, Japan was negative and I calculated about a 0.5% drop in the dollar index (Friday afternoon to Monday afternoon). It is possible there wasn't an FV.