Playing the I fund

[Pilgrim]

I agree with you. Maybe Bernake says something that energizes the markets. But all the news coming out seem negative, and now the weekend is here. We can't forget that the markets are moved by many factors, and sentiment or the emotions weigh heavily. If I heard correctly, crude oil is rising influenced by problems in some oil fields, and many traders like to go home early for the weekend. And a storm is brewing, which might affect the Gulf of Mexico, threatening the oil platforms.

Has anyone got a clue about WHEN that storm will do whatever it's going to do?? It could be just what we need, if the timing is right.

Suppose, just for supposing, that it heads for the oil patch as a cat 1 or 2 and comes ashore on the gulf coast late next week. The actual damage should turn out to be small, but the fear of the first storm to hit this region this year will make the markets sell off the first part of next week. If the timing is perfect, they will get well oversold just in time for a relief rally to coincide with a seasonal labor day rally, possibly giving us a few really spectacular days.

Fantasy I suppose, but wouldn't it be nice to have it work out once in a while?

 

[airlift]

Even if it is speculative, if that scenario should play out, it would coincide roughly with the historical charts that Tom Crowley showed yesterday and today regarding seasonality and the Labor Day weekend. I think that I would not commit more than what I already have in the stock funds just in case a significant correction occurs before running up again.

Has anyone got a clue about WHEN that storm will do whatever it's going to do?? It could be just what we need, if the timing is right.

Suppose, just for supposing, that it heads for the oil patch as a cat 1 or 2 and comes ashore on the gulf coast late next week. The actual damage should turn out to be small, but the fear of the first storm to hit this region this year will make the markets sell off the first part of next week. If the timing is perfect, they will get well oversold just in time for a relief rally to coincide with a seasonal labor day rally, possibly giving us a few really spectacular days.

Fantasy I suppose, but wouldn't it be nice to have it work out once in a while?

 

[FundSurfer]

If the timing is perfect, they will get well oversold just in time for a relief rally to coincide with a seasonal labor day rally, possibly giving us a few really spectacular days.

Followed by saber rattling in Iran as August 31 passes and the UN Security council begins to discuss options for dealing with Iran.

Yep perfect timing indeed. Ever notice how things never happen quite like you think?

 

[Gilligan]

With only two or three writing in this thread, it feels quite deserted. I got used to reading you good people, and now all is silent on the western front. Don't hesitate to say something, even if its only to ring the bell! Have a good day, and my best wishes to all!

Some days like yesterday I get so busy that I dont have time to manage my TSP funds. So when you see me post two words and a figure like, "Ball park $123.45," it means that I dont have time to write my thoughts concerning my estimate. It also means that I didnt spend very much time figuring my estimate, leaving more room for error.

In the long term I am bullish for the I fund. I think it could reach $25 by the end of the fourth quarter. But with my poor TSP success rate this year I don't want to offer any advice and lead some to lose money.

 

[FundSurfer]

In the long term I am bullish for the I fund. I think it could reach $25 by the end of the fourth quarter. But with my poor TSP success rate this year I don't want to offer any advice and lead some to lose money.

State your opinion out loud and proud. It is for others to judge for themselves the worth of what you are saying. FWIW I'm bullish on the I-fund, but not necessarily 25% by the end of the year bullish. That's a lot of manure. We may have to start calling you Birchtree Jr. :cheesy:

 

[airlift]

Don't hesitate! I am satisfied with the opinions expressed here, because I know that you people are serious with your goals, regardless of the final results or the direction of the markets. I have learned quite a lot from you all, and nobody has a crystal ball!

 

[Gilligan]

Ball park estimate: local currency is around +0.064% and the dollar is higher at +0.12% so the USD should be around -0.056 for a loss of one cent to $19.92

 

[MacDaddy]

Gilligan,
You are awesome at predicting the final price for the I-Fund each day. I don't know much about what makes the market(s) tick. I vaguely understand what you use to calculate the price, but do you have any insight as to when the fund will rise and fall that could help myself and others out. I know no one will ever know for certain due to all of the external factors involved, but you seem to have the best handle on what drives it. Thanks for posting on here daily. I look forward to seeing what you have to say.

 

[Gilligan]

Gilligan,
You are awesome at predicting the final price for the I-Fund each day. I don't know much about what makes the market(s) tick. I vaguely understand what you use to calculate the price, but do you have any insight as to when the fund will rise and fall that could help myself and others out. I know no one will ever know for certain due to all of the external factors involved, but you seem to have the best handle on what drives it. Thanks for posting on here daily. I look forward to seeing what you have to say.

I don’t have a crystal ball. The Pacific markets close in the early morning hours and the European markets close right before our TSP deadline. Then I multiply those markets by their weight in the I-fund and determine where the dollar is trading at. I’ve been close the last couple of days because the dollar has been trading close to even.

I wish I could predict the markets 48 hours in advance, then I could make some money.

 

[MacDaddy]

Gilligan,
Thanks for the info, but you are a little modest. I don't think anybody expects that you will be 100% accurate. You're ability to be at or close to the actual price has already been shown.If you're off occasionally.......Big deal!! It's still just an "estimate".

 

[Gilligan]

Ball park estimate: local currency is around +0.064% and the dollar is higher at +0.12% so the USD should be around -0.056 for a loss of one cent to $19.92

MSCI has the EAFE in LC at +0.038%, however they figured the dollar at +0.502 (I only had it at +0.12) so the USD is -0.464% X 19.93 = -.09 cents to $19.84, Morgan Stanley must have gotten the dollar figure right before 12pm when it spiked up.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

 

[Show-me]

This may not bode well for the I fund my fellow I fund luvers.:notrust:

New Stage In Iran's Nuclear Progress
[SIZE=-1]CBS News - 37 minutes ago[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1](AP) A heavy-water production plant officially went into operation Saturday despite UN demands that Iran stop the activity, which Tehran says is for peaceful purposes but Western countries fear could eventually be used to develop a nuclear bomb.[/SIZE]

 

[airlift]

Isn't this something? There are many issues ceating uncertainty. But these will affect all of the stock market. Please note that when stocks fall, the fund drops more than the others percentage wise. This doesn't mean that we have to panic. The santions are to be discussed, I think on the 31st. I am now about 70& in the G, and 30% in I. Keep abreast of the news, and do read Tom Crowley each day. Quote=Show-me;54187]This may not bode well for the I fund my fellow I fund luvers.:notrust:

New Stage In Iran's Nuclear Progress
[SIZE=-1]CBS News - 37 minutes ago[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1](AP) A heavy-water production plant officially went into operation Saturday despite UN demands that Iran stop the activity, which Tehran says is for peaceful purposes but Western countries fear could eventually be used to develop a nuclear bomb.[/SIZE][/quote]

 

[Show-me]

I personally do not like to be in the I fund over the weekend.

 

[airlift]

I am in the I-fund at 30% only because I bought at lower prices. I do expect a drop of whatever magnitude in order to buy at lower prices with the remaining 70%. None of this might pan out, but the stock market makes big moves either way and if you are not invested at least partially you could lose big-time. All bets are off, if some big geopolitical event should occur, of course!

I personally do not like to be in the I fund over the weekend.

 

[The_Technician]

I am in the I-fund at 30% only because I bought at lower prices. I do expect a drop of whatever magnitude in order to buy at lower prices with the remaining 70%. None of this might pan out, but the stock market makes big moves either way and if you are not invested at least partially you could lose big-time. All bets are off, if some big geopolitical event should occur, of course!

The only thing I really worry about in the I is the value of the dollar getting stronger on a world event, I don't believe though that we are there yet even with Iran starting to make trouble for the rest of us.....those Iranians who think they are dutied to kill all non believers in their "faith" really have a real awakening coming to them. I think if I was them, I would drop that BS..... each and everyone of them should ask themselves if they are good humans and deserve to live on this planet. I think it would bring them better lives ahead in the future instead of hanging on this disgracing self proclaimed righteous BS that advocates harming fellow humans.....some religion I'd say, more like let me shove it down your throat BS.....whether you like it or not CRRRRAAAP.....I've got a 44 mag. waiting for them if they come my way, and it will go down their throat if need be....they don't want to come my way.

 

[JOVARN]

Don’t you just hate it when nation’s religious beliefs run the politics of that nation? They are all fanatics as far as I am concerned. Religion should have no role in politics. We need to stamp out such nonsense.
The below is an excerpt for a national election on how things should run. “Now this country has it Right”

So why did evangelical voters support him in such large numbers? First, many believe that God put him in office for a reason, a sense that will undoubtedly grow with his clear re-election. Rank-and-file supporters repeatedly made this point and a series of films and faith biographies distributed in churches during the campaign argued that Mr. Bush was called to the presidency.

Stones and glass houses come to mine here.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/06/o...=5ae5a56e5e6e3900&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland

 

[SkyPilot]

First, one must define "Evangelical", which is not as easy as you might think! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evangelicalism

Religion has always had a role in politics, as well as politics effect on religion.

Some confuse religion with spirituality.

Sometimes political and religious issues are inseparable. One might also ask, why did so many non- "Evangelicals" support the other party.

Didn't all candidates invoke faith during that election, many in southern minority churches (singing, "We Shall Overcome")?

Interesting subject, just not really related to "Playing the I Fund" thread.

Don’t you just hate it when nation’s religious beliefs run the politics of that nation? They are all fanatics as far as I am concerned. Religion should have no role in politics. We need to stamp out such nonsense.
The below is an excerpt for a national election on how things should run. “Now this country has it Right”

So why did evangelical voters support him in such large numbers? First, many believe that God put him in office for a reason, a sense that will undoubtedly grow with his clear re-election. Rank-and-file supporters repeatedly made this point and a series of films and faith biographies distributed in churches during the campaign argued that Mr. Bush was called to the presidency.

Stones and glass houses come to mine here.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/06/o...=5ae5a56e5e6e3900&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland

 

[JOVARN]

Interesting subject, just not really related to "Playing the I Fund" thread.

You are correct SkyPilot not an I fund issue. By not responding do you think I will be lucky enought to skirt the Wrath of Birch?

 

[SkyPilot]

You are OKAY!

You are correct SkyPilot not an I fund issue. By not responding do you think I will be lucky enought to skirt the Wrath of Birch?