Playing the I fund

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We need some quantum physicists here. Then they can teach us about probability and which formulas need to be used for the fluctuations in the stock market.
 
Nikkei 225 DOWN -2.23%
CAC DOWN -1.35%
DAX DOWN -1.46%
FSTE 100 DOWN -0.86%


Dollar stronger against both the Euro and the Yen.

Looks to me like a BIG DOWN DAY for the "I" fund today.
 
While the dollar is up slightly against the Euro, it is holding near three-week lows. What scenarios would result in an immediate resumption of dollar decline? What COULD happen in the next day or so that would send European and Asian stocks up and the dollar down?
 
Pilgrim said:
What scenarios would result in an immediate resumption of dollar decline? What COULD happen in the next day or so that would send European and Asian stocks up and the dollar down?
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Say the FED does not raise and says something to the effect that they have to watch for economic slow down which would signal that maybe they went too far too fast with rate hikes would cause the dollar to drop further. This won't happen cause the Fed does not want the dollar to drop. I expect mixed signals from the Fed either way. Either they don't raise rates but suggest this may only be a pause or the do raise the rate but suggest this may be the final hike. Either way the reaction tommorrow likely to be wild.
 
After doing an analysis today, I have reconsidered my position. I am staying approx. 30% I and 70% G effective this afternoon. I prefer to be conservative, because the stock market is overbought. Moreover, the oil pipeline that busted in Alaska and the geopolitical issues have persuaded me that I better wait for the FED tomorrow. There is, of course, some lag time involved in waiting for the FED before moving back into the I-Fund, but I can always go in if news are positive. I suppose the dollar will probably drop some, if the FED pauses. But again, I took the more conservative road due to the above. See also, how Tom allocated his resources. I have to remember that the SP500 tends to drop less than the I-Fund in a correction.
 
I’ll ballpark the I fund around $19.43, Barclays owes 10 cents, which would put it around $19.53, and don't rule out another FV.
 
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BP, which makes up 2.18% of the I fund is down 1.5% to 2%. Meanwhile, one of BP’s partners, ExxonMobil (XOM) is up .67%
 
Gilligan said:
My guess was off. The dollar has risen more, looks like $19.39, if they give back the dime it should be $19.49
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I'd bet they do readjust the FV today. I moved into the I-fund. Based on my track record with FV's, they should give back the dime and about an extra quarter that I'll then "owe".
 
SkyPilot said:
Gilligan... On the money! Once again!
Click to expand...
Thanks Sky,
I was off by .04 cents @ $19.53, I didn’t get $19.49 until S&S posted MSCI’s returns. Today the currency market will go crazy after the FOMC meeting making it difficult to predict the I-fund price.

MSCI in local currency should be around +0.48% and at the current currency rates in USD about %0.5 to around $19.59 before any FV.
 
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