Playing the I fund

[Gilligan]

Re: What a day!

After that fall back I can't imagine them not doing a FV today. The FSTE rocked on our data and then our market fell back after they closed.

I vote FV today also and I bet the share prices post late today.:blink:

They were about 30 minutes late. $19.70, should of been $19.80, so they took a 10 cent FV.

 

[ebbnflow]

30 minutes to decide how much they're going to stiff us today! :nuts: I'm just glad they didn't take the whole thing.

 

[SkyPilot]

I'll take it! I thought it would be much worse :nuts:

 

[Gilligan]

The longer the delay, the larger the FV.

 

[Show-me]

So what will the OS market reaction be?

Japan doesn't like it when the USD tanks and the FTSE will have a delayed reaction to our close.

 

[Griffin]

FV of -.53%

 

[Gilligan]

Since they underpriced the fund, I think that means Barclays is forecasting the overseas markets to be lower Monday.

 

[Griffin]

Since they underpriced the fund, I think that means Barclays is forecasting the overseas markets to be lower Monday.

I don't think that FV is done based on "expectations". The EFA tanked at the end of the day (along with every other international fund) which has a real world impact on the value of the stocks along with a late spike in foreign currency values.

As a result, a significant drop in foreign index funds Monday will not have as much of an impact on the I-fund, which gives those that want to bail on Monday a chance to get out at closer to the current price. If the foreign indexes are up or break even, I-fund holders could still see a nice return.

 

[nnuut]

I thought Chris was a dead issue!!

Looks like you were right about Chris. You should be a weather man!! Chris went left over Cuba and has been downgraded. Good news, might see Oil slack off a few cents? I hope!!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W5+gif/

 

[Dave M]

The Storm Formerly Known As Chris

Is making my evening miserable, as I type. Lots of cells with 35 knots, but stealthy, not showing up well on the Doppler.

Dave

 

[fabijo]

What a great couple of weeks the I fund had. I wish I didn't anticipate a drop so early. I missed some nice gains.

Since I'm supposed to watch my emotions, then I should be almost certain a big drop is going to happen next week, because my heart is racing and saying, "Get in so you don't miss the gains." That's exactly what happened in May when the I fund was jumping by leaps and bounds. I got in at the peak and rode the I fund to the bottom.

So now I'm confused. If I should always go against my emotions, then I start learning how to see through the hype and fear, my emotions should start to be the right ones. At what point does it become okay to trust my emotions? Will it ever be okay?

 

[fabijo]

Re: The Storm Formerly Known As Chris

Is making my evening miserable, as I type. Lots of cells with 35 knots, but stealthy, not showing up well on the Doppler.

Dave

Are you in the FAA? I'm an ILS tech for the FAA at LaGuardia.

 

[SkyPilot]

Never trust emotions, as they have little or nothing to do with investing. The problem is, once in a while, they seem to align with what would have been a fortunate decision, thereby affording the appearance of validation.

Once emotions enter into the picture, investing turns to gambling, and then you should start factoring in "luck".

Enjoy the emotional high when you make a good decision, and write off a bad decision and suck it up, and move on to your next decision.

 

[Pilgrim]

Looks like you were right about Chris. You should be a weather man!! Chris went left over Cuba and has been downgraded. Good news, might see Oil slack off a few cents? I hope!!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0306W5+gif/

I am a physicist by profession, but I teach a course in physics of weather at a local college. I love the subject and try to learn more but I'm really just a retread with enough knowledge to teach people who know nothing.

Dave M is our resident meteorologist; he is the real McCoy.

 

[Pilgrim]

Never trust emotions, as they have little or nothing to do with investing. The problem is, once in a while, they seem to align with what would have been a fortunate decision, thereby affording the appearance of validation.

Once emotions enter into the picture, investing turns to gambling, and then you should start factoring in "luck".

Enjoy the emotional high when you make a good decision, and write off a bad decision and suck it up, and move on to your next decision.

Perhaps the ideal investor would be a Vulcan. Yet, the market is driven by emotions and a vulcan would never get a feel for how the herd is reacting. I can see Mr. Spock looking at his dwindling TSP saying; "Illogical! Illogical! Illogical!"

 

[nnuut]

I am a physicist by profession, but I teach a course in physics of weather at a local college. I love the subject and try to learn more but I'm really just a retread with enough knowledge to teach people who know nothing.

Dave M is our resident meteorologist; he is the real McCoy.

Man!!! Lots of talent on this board, sharp cookies, as my late Father used to say.

 

[SkyPilot]

Perhaps the ideal investor would be a Vulcan. Yet, the market is driven by emotions and a vulcan would never get a feel for how the herd is reacting. I can see Mr. Spock looking at his dwindling TSP saying; "Illogical! Illogical! Illogical!"

Fortunately, if one is interested in sentiment, plenty of surveys are available that document others emotional response to the market. The trick is to avoid a personal decision based on personal emotion. Personal experience tells me that my emotional response anticipating Tuesday's FOMC tells me to jump in, but the rational tells me to wait and see, and grab some gains following a positive decision, and avoid losses should there be a further restriction and rate hike.

Remember, Vulcan's are emotional beings, they just repress emotions... and how healthy can that be?

 

[Fivetears]

The NIKKEI is at -45.75 (-0.29%) as post time stamped.
The AORD is at 1.20 (0.02%) as post time stamped.

 

[airlift]

Fortunately, if one is interested in sentiment, plenty of surveys are available that document others emotional response to the market. The trick is to avoid a personal decision based on personal emotion. Personal experience tells me that my emotional response anticipating Tuesday's FOMC tells me to jump in, but the rational tells me to wait and see, and grab some gains following a positive decision, and avoid losses should there be a further restriction and rate hike.

Remember, Vulcan's are emotional beings, they just repress emotions... and how healthy can that be?

I was out for the weekend. This post appears to be a wise choice. The very conservative alternative, would be to stay put in the G-Fund. But we have to find some sort of happy medium, because if we are not invested, we won't grow our nest egg. There are a bunch of reasons not to be invested. But the trend remains for a drop in the dollar in relation to other currencies. This would benefit the I-Fund. For the benefit of others who might be interested, I am keeping the bulk in the I-Fund, but also will keep some in G. This way, I can ride the market. If I see the FED pausing, then I will probably go full-throttle into the I-Fund (always keeping a cautious eye over international events, of course!).

 

[Dave M]

Physicists Wanted

My 4-yr degree is in physics. I only got into weather because I could not find work as a physicist, in 1975, a recession year. I went to grad school to support myself, heh.

We need more physicists on this board.

Dave