RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Remind an old man... to cash from long?
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oleg850's Account Talk
- Thread starter oleg850
- Start date
Remind an old man... to cash from long?
buckeye113
Member
The trending system is long-only, I believe, so it would have gone from long to cash.
MrJohnRoss
Well-known member
Ah, TQQQ! You're speaking my language! :nuts:
GEW
Member
Thanks Oleg! At least we know that you're still alive!
buckeye113
Member
Oleg - are you using the trending system for your own personal TSP account and if so are you willing to share your allocation? Are you going 100% S as of tomorrow's close?
oleg850
Active member
My personal TSP Account is split between the Sentiment Survey and Intrepid Timer. Has been that way for a number of years and I am content with the performance thus far. I have a separate pool of money dedicated to ETF trading via the trending system, as well as other strategies.
A person could use these signals for TSP trading, however this certainly isn't the only option, either.
Because this is a trending system, the signal grows stronger once a trade begins to move in the desired direction. Unlike traditional dollar cost averaging, I add to my position as price increases in my favor, instead of buying more shares if prices move against me.
Right now, the system is early into this signal and there is always the possibility of a whipsaw. If you are not confident going 100% in, consider going in with a partial position and increase your exposure as the uptrend is re-established.
It's important to understand the difference between counter-trend trading strategies and trending strategies. The same rules do not apply to both. Where we welcome falling prices as an opportunity to add to our position in trading, that technique is frowned upon with trending strategies, where buying into price increases is the preferred strategy.
I personally use a fixed pool of money for trending positions, but I am also well diversified across several strategies.
If I was using this strategy for TSP investing, I would go in with 50% now, and add the remaining 50% in a week or so, should the uptrend resume, and thus augment the LONG signal.
A person could use these signals for TSP trading, however this certainly isn't the only option, either.
Because this is a trending system, the signal grows stronger once a trade begins to move in the desired direction. Unlike traditional dollar cost averaging, I add to my position as price increases in my favor, instead of buying more shares if prices move against me.
Right now, the system is early into this signal and there is always the possibility of a whipsaw. If you are not confident going 100% in, consider going in with a partial position and increase your exposure as the uptrend is re-established.
It's important to understand the difference between counter-trend trading strategies and trending strategies. The same rules do not apply to both. Where we welcome falling prices as an opportunity to add to our position in trading, that technique is frowned upon with trending strategies, where buying into price increases is the preferred strategy.
I personally use a fixed pool of money for trending positions, but I am also well diversified across several strategies.
If I was using this strategy for TSP investing, I would go in with 50% now, and add the remaining 50% in a week or so, should the uptrend resume, and thus augment the LONG signal.
buckeye113
Member
Ok thanks Oleg. Yeah I am a little nervous jumping all in here, so I will go with a partial position. One possible drawback that I'm seeing is that there will always be a 1-day lag between when your trending system gives a signal (i.e. after the market close) and when I can actually act on it. This is not a criticism of the system but a frustrating restriction with TSP that we all have to live with. As you know a LOT can happen in the markets in one trading day.
oleg850
Active member
Re: Question for the "Most Consistent Trader of the Year"
You are correct, the 1 day lag is a nuisance, but unfortunately we just have to adjust and make due. The system was not designed for TSP trading, but it is possible to adapt the signals in such a manner. There are much better trading opportunities outside of TSP, with hardly any limitations. The downside to "trading freedom" is you have to be very disciplined because the freedom to make money inevitably comes with the freedom to lose it! As far as TSP goes, I cannot condone using only 1 system/strategy, as that goes against my principle of diversification. Although it's harder to diversify within the TSP limitations, it certainly is possible. I am not concerned about chasing returns with TSP, as I consider it my backdrop account. Steady gains year after year with $17,500 annual contributions and minimal losses during bear markets will make just about anyone a TSP multi-millionaire in 25 years. The real opportunities to be had are in brokerage and trade-able IRA accounts. Of course a person must have a reasonable time horizon and prudent money management ability. A get rich quick attitude towards the stock market will rob you faster than a hoodlum on the southwest side of Chicago!
You are correct, the 1 day lag is a nuisance, but unfortunately we just have to adjust and make due. The system was not designed for TSP trading, but it is possible to adapt the signals in such a manner. There are much better trading opportunities outside of TSP, with hardly any limitations. The downside to "trading freedom" is you have to be very disciplined because the freedom to make money inevitably comes with the freedom to lose it! As far as TSP goes, I cannot condone using only 1 system/strategy, as that goes against my principle of diversification. Although it's harder to diversify within the TSP limitations, it certainly is possible. I am not concerned about chasing returns with TSP, as I consider it my backdrop account. Steady gains year after year with $17,500 annual contributions and minimal losses during bear markets will make just about anyone a TSP multi-millionaire in 25 years. The real opportunities to be had are in brokerage and trade-able IRA accounts. Of course a person must have a reasonable time horizon and prudent money management ability. A get rich quick attitude towards the stock market will rob you faster than a hoodlum on the southwest side of Chicago!
oleg850
Active member
Sold the remaining 25% of my NUGT position for a total net profit of around 12%. This trade was a 6 week rollercoaster but scaling in/out appropriately and patience paid off. On to the next one..
FYI, barring any major sell off into the close, the System will remain LONG going into next week. It's not a strong signal by any means, just hovering around the entry price for the last couple of days.
Good weekend everyone!
FYI, barring any major sell off into the close, the System will remain LONG going into next week. It's not a strong signal by any means, just hovering around the entry price for the last couple of days.
Good weekend everyone!
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Nice NUGT trades Oleg. Question, some folks are having issues with their IRA's and not being able to sell an ETF and immediately buying the inverse fund. I know all brokers are different but I've never had this problem with any of my IRAs in any of the brokers I use. In your excursions, have you ran across this problem with trading ETFs using unsettled funds with any brokers? TIA.................
oleg850
Active member
I've ran into this problem with a cash only IRA at OptionsHouse, but nowhere else. I think all the decent brokers allow you to use the funds immediately. My IRA has margin so never had an issue there..
Who do you have your IRA with? Scottrade doesn't allow margin trading on my IRA.
oleg850
Active member
Update:
I unloaded 50% of my TQQQ at $116.50 here in PM for a 3% loss. I don't like betting against my system and unless this current support holds, next stop down is $110. I will look to re-enter with my other 50% at that level or when my System goes LONG again. That LONG signal could come as soon as COB today, depending on the market action, but the current support looks tired and was tested just last week.
From time to time, the System will get whipsawed for 1-2% on the QQQ (3-6%) on TQQQ, although that doesn't happen often. The reason I am being cautious is the fact that this signal never took off with solid footing and 2014 has gotten off to a rather weak start.
I will update later what I decide to do with my remaining half. If we have a decent bounce and the System fails to go LONG, I will likely unload into the strength.
I unloaded 50% of my TQQQ at $116.50 here in PM for a 3% loss. I don't like betting against my system and unless this current support holds, next stop down is $110. I will look to re-enter with my other 50% at that level or when my System goes LONG again. That LONG signal could come as soon as COB today, depending on the market action, but the current support looks tired and was tested just last week.
From time to time, the System will get whipsawed for 1-2% on the QQQ (3-6%) on TQQQ, although that doesn't happen often. The reason I am being cautious is the fact that this signal never took off with solid footing and 2014 has gotten off to a rather weak start.
I will update later what I decide to do with my remaining half. If we have a decent bounce and the System fails to go LONG, I will likely unload into the strength.
