oleg850's Account Talk

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I had an individual on another thread question the performance of the trades that I have posted in real time since the inception of my Account Talk. I am attaching a spreadsheet containing the results of every trade that I have posted in real time, all of which are documented by my time stamped posts in this thread. In the computation, I have only included closed trades. For anyone wondering about my recent NUGT positions, I still hold all of the ones that I posted about. Those lots are currently DCA'd at around $35 per share. I have done additional trading that I did not have an opportunity to post that have reduced my DCA cost basis to around $22 per share. At this point, I see no reason that I will be closing this trade out for a loss, and fully expect NUGT to rebound into the $30 range in due time. I have become reluctant to post too much information regarding trades on this thread because it is public. In studying the performance of my various trading strategies as well as individual trades, I have come to the conclusion that the trades I have disclosed in the public domain have suffered from reduced performance compared to those I have kept private. I have witnessed the same phenomenon with several trading systems, whose performance has diminished year after year after going "live."

Anyone that questions my trading performance on this board can reference the attached .PDF document.
 

Attachments

oleg850 said:
In studying the performance of my various trading strategies as well as individual trades, I have come to the conclusion that the trades I have disclosed in the public domain have suffered from reduced performance compared to those I have kept private. I have witnessed the same phenomenon with several trading systems, whose performance has diminished year after year after going "live."
Click to expand...

Oleg - I agree with the above statement but I have always wondered why this happens? Any theories? It seems unlikely that the small community of people following the trades that you post would be enough to affect the performance of the system, unless there are much bigger players in the market lurking on these forums???
 
Don't presume anything. It's close enough to my buy-in price and at technical resistance, hence my decision. My intention for this trade was for a quick 2 week turnaround but I set my exit arget to high. Had to let it ride for a while to let the price come back up. I'm content with a small loss on this. I do think AMZN is a good long term hold, even at these levels.
 
oleg850 said:
I had an individual on another thread question the performance of the trades that I have posted in real time since the inception of my Account Talk. I am attaching a spreadsheet containing the results of every trade that I have posted in real time, all of which are documented by my time stamped posts in this thread. In the computation, I have only included closed trades. For anyone wondering about my recent NUGT positions, I still hold all of the ones that I posted about. Those lots are currently DCA'd at around $35 per share. I have done additional trading that I did not have an opportunity to post that have reduced my DCA cost basis to around $22 per share. At this point, I see no reason that I will be closing this trade out for a loss, and fully expect NUGT to rebound into the $30 range in due time. I have become reluctant to post too much information regarding trades on this thread because it is public. In studying the performance of my various trading strategies as well as individual trades, I have come to the conclusion that the trades I have disclosed in the public domain have suffered from reduced performance compared to those I have kept private. I have witnessed the same phenomenon with several trading systems, whose performance has diminished year after year after going "live."

Anyone that questions my trading performance on this board can reference the attached .PDF document.
Click to expand...

Don't worry about what other people say, as long as you are making that kind of money, you can tell them to kiss off.
 
buckeye113 said:
Oleg - I agree with the above statement but I have always wondered why this happens? Any theories? It seems unlikely that the small community of people following the trades that you post would be enough to affect the performance of the system, unless there are much bigger players in the market lurking on these forums???
Click to expand...

Still waiting on an answer to my question.
 
buckeye113 said:
Still waiting on an answer to my question.
Click to expand...

Your guess is as good as mine, but it is what it is. I think a lot more eyes are on this board than you think. Remember, it is public after all and you don't have to be a member to view the public threads. Even the Premium Service threads are a couple clicks away from being compromised if you know your way around the internet, not to mention the unknown amount of paying subscriptions that leak the signals. Then you have to deal with the algorithms that track the brokerage orders coming through on the fly. Those are all hurdles when following a system or having a group of people enter the same trades. All I know is I've had 18 consecutive winning NUGT and ERX trades over the last 2 weeks and I haven't posted any of them - to me that win percentage is worth something.
 
Just my person opinion which doesn't mean much but I don't see people on this thread being able to move the market. Even with that if you are buying and then posting your buys that should drive the price up, no? Probably just me buy still not sure how posting after you made a buy would drive a price down. I seriously doubt big players are watching this thread to short what is being bought. I think people over think it.


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oleg850 said:
All I know is I've had 18 consecutive winning NUGT and ERX trades over the last 2 weeks and I haven't posted any of them - to me that win percentage is worth something.
Click to expand...

Ah, the sound of a successful technical analyst. Keep up the good work.
 
voirdire1st said:
Even with that if you are buying and then posting your buys that should drive the price up, no? Probably just me buy still not sure how posting after you made a buy would drive a price down. I seriously doubt big players are watching this thread to short what is being bought.
Click to expand...

I'm not an IT guy but even just folks viewing are tracked, not PII but numbers.

I suppose if someone was inclined to do so they could say buy and sell stocks that fall within the top ten of a fund based on interfund transfers within TSP Talk. But TSP funds are specific to TSP. take the S Fund, On a day when every one is moving out of the S fund I suppose, theoretically, HTZ could fall some. Our transfers don't occur till after the close, I would need to wait for there to be an actual affect, no? And when you are in the S Fund, you don't actually own any HTZ where at some point if you held it long enough you would get dividends. The S Fund, just like all of the TSP Funds, are appreciation/depreciation driven. Big money looks at numbers (input/output), not necessarily all the eaches. Of course there are way smarter folks than me on here which might explain my Tracker position :laugh:
 
WorkFE said:
I'm not an IT guy but even just folks viewing are tracked, not PII but numbers.

I suppose if someone was inclined to do so they could say buy and sell stocks that fall within the top ten of a fund based on interfund transfers within TSP Talk. But TSP funds are specific to TSP. take the S Fund, On a day when every one is moving out of the S fund I suppose, theoretically, HTZ could fall some. Our transfers don't occur till after the close, I would need to wait for there to be an actual affect, no? And when you are in the S Fund, you don't actually own any HTZ where at some point if you held it long enough you would get dividends. The S Fund, just like all of the TSP Funds, are appreciation/depreciation driven. Big money looks at numbers (input/output), not necessarily all the eaches. Of course there are way smarter folks than me on here which might explain my Tracker position :laugh:
Click to expand...

I hear your point. I am more referring to OLeg's Nugt and other purchases outside TSP. I have a hard time believing that him posting his small NUGT purchases or even other relatively small buys are moving the market against him. I find it easier to blame posting the moves than just maybe acknowledging they were just bad entry points.


Sent from my phone using Tapatalk
 
Understand.

For the most part there are no bad entry points. No doubt there is some bad timing. IMHO an entry point can only become bad when you exit. If you bought gold in 2012, at the moment that seems like a bad entry. :D
 
voirdire1st said:
WorkFE said:
I'm not an IT guy but even just folks viewing are tracked, not PII but numbers.

I suppose if someone was inclined to do so they could say buy and sell stocks that fall within the top ten of a fund based on interfund transfers within TSP Talk. But TSP funds are specific to TSP. take the S Fund, On a day when every one is moving out of the S fund I suppose, theoretically, HTZ could fall some. Our transfers don't occur till after the close, I would need to wait for there to be an actual affect, no? And when you are in the S Fund, you don't actually own any HTZ where at some point if you held it long enough you would get dividends. The S Fund, just like all of the TSP Funds, are appreciation/depreciation driven. Big money looks at numbers (input/output), not necessarily all the eaches. Of course there are way smarter folks than me on here which might explain my Tracker position :laugh:
Click to expand...

I hear your point. I am more referring to OLeg's Nugt and other purchases outside TSP. I have a hard time believing that him posting his small NUGT purchases or even other relatively small buys are moving the market against him. I find it easier to blame posting the moves than just maybe acknowledging they were just bad entry points.


Sent from my phone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I don't recall ever saying that my posted trades were moving the market against me. Last time I checked, an 85% win rate (which I have for posted closed trades) was pretty good by anyone's standards. I did say that my win percentage for unpublished trades and strategies was better than for those that I made public, but both have been pretty exceptional. My conclusions were drawn by studying the performance of a myriad of strategies over several years. I don't care if you believe me. My primary objective is that my trades remain as profitable as possible.
 
Oleg - same here. I apologize if you feel it was an attack on you. I believe your track record is great. I just think it's being read into too much to say posting trades results in less profitable trades. I would have to see a lot of data for years to believe such an accusation. Either way your trades come out great as your stats show. Like you said that's all that matters. Since you alluded to being in Nugt more... What's your short term perspective on it? Feel it's bottoming?


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