Nordic's Account Talk

[Nordic]

now what?

"More market gains ahead? The Investors Intelligence bullish sentiment indicator is currently at the lowest level since late January. That's when stocks bottomed out after an early-year tumble and eventually rallied to fresh all-time highs.



While weekly data can be a bit volatile, the recent trend is telling. The percentage of bullish investors has declined each of the past three weeks.
"That contraction means there is still room for more market gains," John Gray of Investors Intelligence wrote in the latest report."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fewer-people-loving-stocks-now-185100949.html


I had a bad case of itchy finger today and almost pulled the trigger to the 'pads. Stopped myself at the last second and decided to wait until tomorrow. I honestly have no idea where this market is going next, and wouldn't be surprised if it broke either way. Charts aren't a tremendous help right now either...treading water at the moment. Not sure how long I'll stay invested, my gut says time for a breather, but who knows.

 

[Nordic]

out

"EARNINGS FOCUS: Company earnings will be an important focus for the market in the coming weeks. Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to report that average earnings-per-share shrank by 3.1 percent in the first quarter, according to S&P Capital IQ. If the forecast proves accurate, it will be the first time since 2009 when the U.S. economy was emerging from the Great Recession that earnings have contracted."

"Oil companies are suffering from a big drop in oil prices and a rising dollar will crimp profits for big multi-national companies that make a lot of sales overseas.THE QUOTE: "If the U.S. market is going to advance this year, it's going to need to advance mostly on the back of earnings," said Russ Koesterich, chief investment strategist at BlackRock. "That has been a struggle so far.""

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-edge-lower-morning-152854782.html


Decreasing earnings, decreasing oil, and what appears to be coiling equities charts are enough for me to pull the plug for the time being. Nice start to the year, no need to get greedy at this point.

DWCPF chart...S Fund.

 

[Nordic]

continued caution warranted

I'll continue to lean bearish while we are at these elevated levels, although there may be some corrective upswings we can take advantage of with our limited IFTs. Safe trading.


"The giant bearish Rising Wedge in the S&P500 index shown on its 8-year chart below is now closing up rapidly and looks set to force a breakdown soon. While an upside breakout is possible, it looks highly unlikely, for a variety of other reasons that we will look at shortly. The top line of this Wedge is certainly of importance as the index has retreated from it on several occasions."

US Stockmarkets Update - Getting Scarier by the Day | Clive Maund | Safehaven.com

 

[Nordic]

shoeshine?

“I had a terrifying moment this week when I was at the dentist and it didn’t have to do with my teeth at all,” he says. “I was walking out of the building and there was a doorman-- and he was talking about tech stocks, what he was buying and what he was selling.”

Serwer says the frightening part was that it reminded him of another time-- right before the dot-com bubble burst.
“I haven’t seen that kind of a conversation since 1999,” he explains. “Where it becomes cocktail fodder.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/r-i-p--bull-market-173605287.html

 

[userque]

Re: shoeshine?

“I had a terrifying moment this week when I was at the dentist and it didn’t have to do with my teeth at all,” he says. “I was walking out of the building and there was a doorman-- and he was talking about tech stocks, what he was buying and what he was selling.”

Serwer says the frightening part was that it reminded him of another time-- right before the dot-com bubble burst.
“I haven’t seen that kind of a conversation since 1999,” he explains. “Where it becomes cocktail fodder.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/r-i-p--bull-market-173605287.html

I get what they want to communicate.

I wouldn't lump all 'doormen' and "shoe shine boys" [I quote from the video clip] that discuss stocks together as being market-challenged, just as I wouldn't assume all 'traders' that discuss stocks together as being market-savvy. :smile:

Consider this 'parking attendant.'

Meet Mr. Earl. Mr. Earl is not just a parking lot attendant, he’s also an investment and saving guru. Earl has had this job for decades, and is known for “preaching the gospel of investing.” He has never earned more than $12 dollars an hour or $20,000 per year. His net worth is over half a million dollars from his investing.

Parking Lot attendant makes just $12 an hour and is worth $500,000 – Financial Juneteenth

 

[alevin]

Re: shoeshine?

I like it. That guy will be able to retire some day, when he decides he's had enough of parking other people's cars. good for him.

 

[Nordic]

locking in some profits

I took half off the table today, mostly based on levels of the VIX and bumping up against the Upper Bollinger Band. I think there's still a good chance we go a bit higher this week, so I left some in the two recently higher performing funds C & I. All time highs and seasonality (May) are also factoring into my decision.

 

[Nordic]

I Fund

I'm going 100% I Fund COB today. This is strictly a chartology move based on what I see below...hitting lower BB, MACD at lower levels as well as RSI near the 30 buy level. I'm never completely comfortable going 100 I Fund, so we'll see how this goes in the coming days. I think there is still more pain to come in June, and I may be using all my IFT bullets earlier in the month than I would like. Good luck

 

[Nordic]

rocket ship EFA

Dang, the EFA is currently up 2.18% today with about half hour to go till IFT deadline. Very tempting to take that and run, but there's so much of the month left and I'd be sitting in G for the next three weeks. Tough call, and there's definitely room to run to the top of the BB.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: rocket ship EFA

It's a good time to look at some KRE. Small banks are on a roll.

 

[Nordic]

moves

I decided to exit to the G Fund yesterday after the nice two day rally on Wed - Thur. Today is down 1% + in the I fund, so I'm glad I was able to avoid that drop. Still a volatile environment right now and I'm just looking to lock in some profits when the opportunities present themselves. Looking at the EFA (I Fund) chart below, there's still quite a bit of room for it to run to the upside if it wanted to, but the situation in Greece and the movement of the dollar are glaring uncertainties that may suppress the I Fund in the short term...time will tell. Will wait for the next batch of IFTs in July and see how things are looking then. The SPX (C Fund) chart looks similar, but may be a safer play if you're looking at staying in equities through the rest of the month. Good luck

 

[remark]

Good tactical move and great info!

Packer/Badger Fan? I was born and raised north of LaCrosse and left the area 29 years ago for the career - Forever a cheese head!

 

[Nordic]

Good tactical move and great info!

Packer/Badger Fan? I was born and raised north of LaCrosse and left the area 29 years ago for the career - Forever a cheese head!

Hi remark - Actually, I grew up in Duluth and have been a life-long and long-suffering Viking and Gopher fan...should be an interesting NFL season coming up. Is GB looking for a soon-to-be 31 year old RB? :suspicious: I expect the Pack to be in the running again for the NFC title this year, just gotta keep Mr. Rawjas on the field.

 

[Nordic]

sentiment

"A technical analysis pattern called a Hindenburg Omen was triggered Thursday thanks to divergences between price, new highs, new lows and advancing and declining measures of market internals. Just look at the way the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 50-day moving average has been rolling over since late May.

While not a perfect signal (admittedly, there is no such thing in technical analysis), Hindenburg Omens have in the past been somewhat reliable warnings of approaching market weakness since they reflect a withdrawal of broad buying interest. (Admittedly, they have appeared numerous times in recent years without being followed by massive selloffs.)"

Say goodbye to Dow 18,000 -- for a while



We've seen many Hinbenburg Omen's recently not amount to anything, but it is something to be aware of. As for this summer, I have no idea how it's going to play out. I'm not sure I've ever performed very well timing the market during the summer months, aside from my buy and hold days. I tend to play it conservatively, but that doesn't always work either, many advances in equities have been missed during the summer months by being too conservative.

 

[Nordic]

Greece

"News which has dramatically altered the Greek situation and is expected to have an immediate impact on the worlds' markets came out after the close on Friday. If nothing has changed by Monday morning, a sharply lower opening is expected. If so, this could be the beginning of the intermediate correction which has long been expected."

Market Turning Points | Andre Gratian | Safehaven.com


Really hard for me to say how this will play out in the next couple of weeks, but volatility is definitely picking up.

 

[Nordic]

IFT

To the charts. This is the EFA (I Fund) chart, which shows another gap lower at the opening this morning....starting to feel more like a falling knife if this continues. Just going by the chart it looks like a decent place to buy in possibly, time will tell...I still don't like the level of volatility we're seeing, but let's roll with it for now. Could very well be another quick in and out for the month of July. We need more IFTs for this kind of action. 100 I fund COB today.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: IFT

100 I fund COB today.

I like it, just not there with you yet.

 

[Nordic]

charts and volatility

The I Fund play worked out the past couple of days, but really hard to say how long it's going to last with the volatility we're seeing. EFA has recovered quite a bit of ground and could recover some more next week, but it could just as easily turn on us and take it all back. Might have to make another move next week, depending on how things are looking after the weekend....summer trading is definitely keeping us on our toes. Hard to ignore the rounded tops and 200 DMA visits we're seeing in the equity funds...turning into hit and run territory and just be happy with a positive return for the summer months. Lots of reading to be done this weekend. Good luck.

 

[Nordic]

lightening up

I decided to pull some off the table COB today, and also re-allocate evenly to C, S, and I. 25% G, C, S, I.

 

[Nordic]

Megaphone setup in SPX

The charts currently aren't looking that great...MACD, RSI, and BB all suggest plenty of room to fall, more so in the SPX and EFA indices. Dow Completion Index (S Fund) is looking closer to a bottom before another bounce, but I won't be tempted for a while yet. Just feels like an ultra risky environment right now, especially with difficult seasonality ahead of us. There also appears to be a Megaphone pattern forming in the SPX since May, with a drop underway toward the bottom "jaw". Stay nimble.