Nordic's Account Talk

[Nordic]

bottom in? Probably not yet...

"We have not seen improvement in the ETF space or within our model that points to an imminent and sustainable turn in stocks. Could a dead cat bounce occur soon? Sure, anything can happen. Since our approach looks at the evidence in hand, rather than attempting to forecast, we will wait for meaningful improvement before shifting from our current incremental risk-reduction strategy to an incremental cash-redeployment strategy."

Is Evidence Piling Up For A Sustainable Bottom In Stocks? | Chris Ciovacco | Safehaven.com


It's very tempting, at least for me, to consider coming off the sidelines at these levels for a hit-and-run type of play. Our IFT limitations make me think twice about that however, so I have some careful thinking to do on re-entry. Patience

 

[Nordic]

MACD seasonal sell signal

"What makes April 2014 even more precarious is that MACD just triggered a sell signal (signals are stronger when technical analysis confirms seasonal patterns)."


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/historic-p-500-seasonality-turn-170155546.html


Volatility is on the rise, another rough day for equities so far. Transferred to F Fund a few days ago, not sure how long I'll stay there.

 

[Nordic]

Re: 2014

IFT into the S Fund today, looking for a short-term oversold bounce next week. I don't like using my last equity IFT so early in the month, but we'll see how it plays out. Right now it feels like anything can happen, including continuing below 1800.

 

[Nordic]

snort

As Betula papyrifera likes to say. I occasionally like to pop onto Daneric's blog to see what bearish news he is preaching, as he has over the past few years, and was almost shocked at the bullish EWT count he has established for the SPX...2000? That's one of the most bullish things this guy has said in recent years. I was ready to anoint him the PermaBear, so his wave count target of 2000 was a surprise to me. Better than a sharp stick in the eye if it indeed panned out.


"We have a more classic extended wave [v] of 5 count shown in the SPX. Either way, both charts suggest the same thing so don't get hung up in the squiggles. Target 2000 SPX if this count pans out."

Daneric's Elliott Waves

 

[Nordic]

lightening up

I took half off the table COB today, going 50 G / 50 S. Nice run this past week, but I don't expect it to last with May right around the corner.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: lightening up

"The recovery from the recession has been nasty, brutish and long. It also is shaping up as one of the most enduring."

 

[Nordic]

out

Close enough to 1900 for me, IFT to the F Fund COB today. Will look for another entry point if we get a meaningful pullback in the next few weeks.

 

[Nordic]

entry point

“This to me looks and feels like just a normal pullback, correction right back to the 200-day, and a great buying opportunity,” Johnson said. “At this pullback here, we’re starting to look a little bit oversold.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talk...n-the-past-year--stocks-surged-210221440.html


I re-entered equities a couple of weeks ago and am looking at hopefully staying in until at least the 16,900 area in the DOW. The garbage going on internationally is keeping things interesting.

 

[Nordic]

bear market rally

"It is my opinion that this is a bear market rally and once done a steep plunge will ensue.

I have added moving averages with time periods of 14 (purple), 50 (blue), 100 (red) and 200 (black). We can see price found support at the 200ma. Also, we have one of the first signs of a potential bear market being the 14ma crossing over the 50ma. I'd like to see this bear rally get up over the 50ma level which currently stands a touch above 16850.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from the July top to recent low. I generally favour a deep retracement on the first bear rally. Hence, I'm targeting the 76.4% level at 16958. Now price may fall a tad short. I'd like to see price at least clip the top of the very bearish candle from the 31st July at 16869. This is also just above the 61.8% level."

Dow Bear Market Rally | Austin Galt | Safehaven.com


These are the levels I'll be watching for before leaping to the 'pads.

 

[Nordic]

big picture

"The low volume confirms it is corrective, not impulsive. This means it will be muted, and not exceed the highs in July. It is simply working off the oversold condition of the market from the last three weeks' decline. The rebound could take the Industrials toward 16,800ish and the S&P 500 toward 1,960ish. Once this b-up subwave finishes, possibly by the end of August, maybe sooner, then a strong decline, wave c-down of d-down will follow, taking stocks to new lows below the August 7th levels."

How Low Do Stocks Go from Here? | Robert McHugh | Safehaven.com

The macroscopic "Jaws of Death" have been discussed many times in the recent past, just something to ponder.

 

[Nordic]

Re: bear market rally

"It is my opinion that this is a bear market rally and once done a steep plunge will ensue.

I have added moving averages with time periods of 14 (purple), 50 (blue), 100 (red) and 200 (black). We can see price found support at the 200ma. Also, we have one of the first signs of a potential bear market being the 14ma crossing over the 50ma. I'd like to see this bear rally get up over the 50ma level which currently stands a touch above 16850.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from the July top to recent low. I generally favour a deep retracement on the first bear rally. Hence, I'm targeting the 76.4% level at 16958. Now price may fall a tad short. I'd like to see price at least clip the top of the very bearish candle from the 31st July at 16869. This is also just above the 61.8% level."

Dow Bear Market Rally | Austin Galt | Safehaven.com


These are the levels I'll be watching for before leaping to the 'pads.

Close enough for now, back to the G fund today. Will attempt to re-enter equities before the end of the month.

 

[Nordic]

Presidential Cycle

"In terms of the market’s current position, bulls will be heartened to hear that stocks are now entering the strongest stretch of the entire cycle. From the 4th quarter of the 2nd year of a president’s term (begins October 1st) through the 2nd quarter of the 3rd year (June 30 next year), the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a 14.6% return since 1900. This is far and away the best of any 3 quarter stretch."

Stocks Entering Best Stretch of Presidential Cycle...By Far | Tumblr Blog - Yahoo Finance


I jumped back into the C Fund yesterday, let's see how it goes.

 

[bmneveu]

Re: Presidential Cycle

"In terms of the market’s current position, bulls will be heartened to hear that stocks are now entering the strongest stretch of the entire cycle. From the 4th quarter of the 2nd year of a president’s term (begins October 1st) through the 2nd quarter of the 3rd year (June 30 next year), the Dow Jones Industrial Average has averaged a 14.6% return since 1900. This is far and away the best of any 3 quarter stretch."

Stocks Entering Best Stretch of Presidential Cycle...By Far | Tumblr Blog - Yahoo Finance


I jumped back into the C Fund yesterday, let's see how it goes.

Interesting. I wonder if 1st or 2nd term for the president affects the numbers, or if they are consistent with each other.

 

[Nordic]

strength of the dollar

Dollar up 1.44% so far today, it's been relentless is recent months and making life difficult for those sitting in the I Fund. I've read it could keep rising for awhile yet, but it's hard to tell.

 

[Nordic]

Dollar trend

"The current rise in the US$ has been almost straight up with little or no correction. A violent up move could be met with a violent correction and possibly soon. How gold responds during that correction should be watched carefully."

The Soaring US Dollar! | David Chapman | Safehaven.com


It is tempting...

 

[Nordic]

Re: strength of the dollar

Pulled the trigger and went all in to the I fund, this feels riskier than hell and is entirely based on the expectation that the dollar will reverse hard off its recent rally. I fund has been badly underperforming so far this year, so I'm utilizing the "buy low" strategy here.

 

[ILoveTDs]

Re: lightening up

We've been printing money like it's going out of style with QE @ 65 billion a month. Shouldn't printing money decrease the spending power of the dollar? While we've been doing this the dollar has continued to rise. How could this be? The only conclusion I can think of is our foreign partners are printing money faster then we are. E.g. our dollar spending power is decreasing but foreign currency are decreasing at a faster rate their by make the dollar increase in exchange rate.

If that is the case what could make the trend change? 1) increase QE 2) decrease interest rates 3) have foreign government stop their QE. I don't think we'll increase QE do you? It will stay the status quo or be tapered is all signs I see from the Fed. You can't decrease interest rates lower than 0%. Foreign government would have to first taper their QE to our's just to stop the exchange rate gaps and then taper it even more to reverse the exchange rate. I don't see Europe or Asia tapering their QE to that extent without our FED tapering QE.

Unless we are going to print 4.5 trillion and buy out foreign govenments in our national debt, I don't see the exchange rate reversing which no matter how good the Asia and Europian markets do will hurt the I Fund.

I ain't going any where near the I Fund anytime soon.

 

[Nordic]

continuing pressure on the I Fund

"For one, the EAFE has now put in a lower high and lower low for the first time since the post-2012 bull market began. This is the definition of a down trend. While it does not mean a long-term downtrend has begun, the onus is now on the bulls to prove that one has not begun. Additionally, in the process, the EAFE has formed a rounded top pattern that suggests more downside lies ahead. It will take a higher high above the early September level around 1937 to negate this pattern."

Surprise! International Stocks are at a 52-Week Low | Tumblr Blog - Yahoo Finance


The gambler in me wants to go all in the I Fund, but I'm reversing course and switching to the S Fund today. It's a tempting play at these levels, but I'm going to wait for confirmation first which may take a bit more time. I'll pick up a small gain in the I fund today, which I'll gladly take and move to Small Caps. Good luck.

 

[Nordic]

to the pads

Well, it's been an interesting three weeks in October, quite the ride to say the least. I'm going to consider this week a gift of sorts and head to the sidelines for the rest of the month. I'll look at re-entering equities sometime in November if conditions permit. Post-election markets could be interesting.

 

[Nordic]

getting overbought

"Now upward momentum is decelerating as the S&P 500 is getting overbought. The circles highlighted in the chart below are the current and most recent overbought signals; notice the index price normally pulls back at this level."

Market Summary | Gregory Clay | Safehaven.com

RSI at 67 and the S&P500 bumping up against its upper Bollinger Band. Tough call here on what to do for the rest of the month and only one IFT remaining. As Tom has pointed out, Reverse H&S also playing out with a possible RS needing to be formed for completion of the formation. Also, some open gaps needing to be filled below current levels. MACD is starting to reverse course a bit too. This all feels like a time to sit on the sidelines, but I'm not sure yet. :suspicious: