MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

It's looking more and more like any hope for a short term rally is quickly fading.




The 4% box is still in play, as is the bearish descending triangle. Stoch has crossed below the 50 line, which is bearish. The PPO, which was rising last week, is now rolling over into the negative. We're also falling further away from the 50 DMA. There really isn't much bullish news about this chart at all, except the 50 is above the 200.

The S Fund even looks worse than the S&P, and the Nasdaq had a big bearish engulfing today to cross back under it's 50 DMA.

Oil has now officially failed it's test of resistance, and may be looking for support in the 47 area.




With WTIC falling, the dollar rising, and interest rates shooting higher, stocks are having a rough time going any higher.

Composite system now reads -3, a strong sell. As such, I will move to the sidelines tomorrow, and absorb yet another small loss. It's just the nature of the beast.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

A couple of quick charts to peruse on your Monday morning. BPSPX is the percentage of bullish P&F charts in the S&P500:




With a peak at 77 and change at the end of Aug, it's been all downhill since early Sept. Note the bearish crossover of the 20 DMA. This last week saw an especially steep drop off.

Next up, the NAAD, which is the Nasdaq Advances minus Declines chart:




Looks like a top was produced on Sept 22 (at 9228), and it began rolling over soon after. Price plunged under both the 21 and 39 EMA, and the 21 is now below the 39 for another bearish flag.

Unless the market can make a comeback this week, it's looking more and more like it's going down a slippery slope.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The Only Chart That Matters ~ Eric Parnell, Seeking Alpha

• The economic and corporate backdrop has been sluggish at best in the post crisis period.
• Yet the stock market has continued to rise in what is now the second longest bull market, although it has turned largely flat in recent years.
• One particular chart matters most when trying to explain performance in the post crisis period and exactly when we might see a sustainable correction in stocks going forward.

 

[konakathy]

Unless the market can make a comeback this week, it's looking more and more like it's going down a slippery slope.

Good luck!

Rut roh! I suppose I can wait another couple months before spinning the wheel.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The S&P went nowhere today, and is still looking very weak.




The only saving grace may be that the VIX is hitting the upper BB, which could signal a top to the VIX, and a short term bottom for the market.

The big story today is the dramatic fall in the price of oil. WTIC fell almost 4% today. See chart below:




Falling oil is hurting the energy sector, and also the high yield bond market, so a bit of a domino effect.

No changes to the composite system, as it remains at a bearish -3 reading.

Good luck!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Awesome charts Mr John Ross! Thank You!!!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Awesome charts Mr John Ross! Thank You!!!

TYVM, DBA!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Ruh-roh. The 2120 line in the sand has been broken.




We may get a short term oversold bounce soon, but I'm thinking we're going to test the 200 DMA near 2080. The bulls can point to the spike in the VIX outside the upper BB as a possible short term salvation, but I wouldn't want to bet on an immediate turn around here. Looks like momentum is very strong to the downside.

The dollar looks like it may be forming a short term top.




This may put a stop to the fall in the price of oil, as a weaker dollar should help commodities. Gold and silver both gapped higher. JNUG up over 10% today.

Bond yields look like they're going to continue to climb for a while. The window of opportunity for anyone looking for low interest refinancing on their mortgage is fading away pretty quickly.

One more note... here are the percentage of stocks above their respective 20 DMA's:

Large Cap: 34%
Mid Cap: 28%
Small Cap: 22%

When small caps are leading to the downside, it's yet another sign of an unhealthy market, IMHO.

Composite system remains at -3.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The bears look to have full control of this market right now. Take a look at the Nasdaq:




That is indeed a slippery slope it's going down. Yesterday and today it closed below the lower BB. RSI is now in oversold territory. Momentum is down hard right now, but the question is, where is it going to bounce? My guess is between the 200 DMA at 4934, and previous resistance at 4980.

I have been surprised to see Mr Tran holding it's own.




Everything else is bleeding pretty badly. Perhaps the bulls have a little hope? Certainly not much at this point.

Composite remains at -3, but the VIX spike could turn around any day. We shall see...

Good luck!

 

[felinecrl]

Thanks for the charts MrJohnRoss, and information. It is in line with what was thinking, so that's a good indication I'm learning how to read and interpret some of the investing principles and jargon.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

A bad week all the way around for equities. Updated weekly chart of the S&P:




The downturn took a little longer than expected, but it definitely showed up. There are so many indications of an oversold market right now... VIX has spiked for nine straight days, the NYMO has reached oversold levels that it hasn't seen since January, and the S&P RSI has reached 28, to name a few. We could see an oversold rally soon, but I doubt that we'll meet or exceed that 2184 high.

Here's an updated chart of the NAAD (Nasdaq Advances - Declines):




There was a lot of internal strength in the Nasdaq since the Feb low, but since the middle of Sept, it's all evaporated with a massive fall these past few weeks. The 21 EMA has crossed the 39, which is bearish. However, when prices get too far away from their moving averages, they want to tend to snap back, at least somewhat.

If Trump wins the election, I think there will likely be a lot of market uncertainty and volatility. We could see some wild swings in the market ahead, so buckle up.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Short term bounce is in play.

100% S as of C.O.B. 11/7/16.

 

[ravensfan]

Short term bounce is in play.

100% S as of C.O.B. 11/7/16.

So with you entering the market today, are you thinking this will be more than just a one day bounce?

 

[MrJohnRoss]

So with you entering the market today, are you thinking this will be more than just a one day bounce?

I certainly hope so raven. I'd hate to buy in at the top of the bounce just to see it drop lower from here. There's always that possibility, and with the election looming, anything is possible. It's a roll of the dice, but I'm hoping the probabilities of a longer term bounce of a week or two will take place. We'll soon find out.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Mr Tran up over 3% today:




The sectors that have been beaten down the hardest seemed to rally the most. R2K and health care both up 2.5%. Biotechs up over 4%.

I usually wait to buy after I've confirmed the end of day signal, but this morning's big move was a tip-off that the oversold rally was taking place. My VIX system and PMO system both generated buy signals today, so the composite now reads +1, a mild buy signal. Very little time to post, so that's all for now.

Good luck!

 

[FogSailing]

Like I've mentioned before...We've got them just where they want us...

FS

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Not going to post any charts tonight, because quite frankly, they don't even matter. Everything is about the election results. The market is currently pricing in a probable Trump win, but that could change by the hour. Dow futures currently down -704 (-3.85%), S&P down -95 (-4.44%).

Buckle your seatbelts, indeed.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Wow wow wow. Who woulda thunk it? Market down at the limit (-5%) last night, and this morning it all turned around.




The Dow is just a hair below it's all time high on massive volume, with the S&P not far behind, about 30 points from it's high. I was shocked to see the S Fund (W4500) up 235 bp. Yowza.

Perhaps even more surprising was the normally "safe haven" bonds, AGG, had a huge fall:




I would expect a bounce higher in bonds in the very near future.

Biotechs were one of the big winners with this rally. BTK (Biotech index) was up over 9% today. Mr VIX plummeted 23%. Just incredible numbers all around.

It'll be interesting to see how much staying power this rally is going to have, or if it peters out soon. For now, I'll ride the wave, with my composite reading a healthy +3. I'll be keeping my eye on internal strength, and the oscillators to stay informed of any changes.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Keeping my seat belt fastened. Dow up nicely to a record high. S&P and EMW both printed spinning tops. Nasdaq down. Utilities down. Bonds down. Mr Tran up. VIX up. Oil down. Dollar up. Gold down. Small caps up.

The market seems to be attempting to come to equilibrium, and money is rushing to where it thinks it's going to get it's best return based on Trump's policies.

I'll stay the course for now, as my composite remains at +3.

Good luck!

 

[ravensfan]

Congrats MJR. It looks like you timed your entry perfectly$$$

Unfortunately I listened to the talking heads and bailed a few days to soon. I'm not totally disappointed though as I was able to get back into positive territory, so for the time being, I'm on the sidelines waiting for that next entry.

Good luck and congrats again!!!