08/01/25
Stocks gapped up higher on Thursday but once again we saw a negative reversal day as the indices closed down and near the lows of the day. Microsoft and Meta held onto big gains but the rest of the market was sold as the day wore on. Apple and Amazon reported earnings after hours on Thursday. Both reports were strong but Amazon was down in after hours trading, while Apple was up about 3%. Yields were flat and the dollar was up again.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
It was not a big loss for stocks yesterday but it was the size of the reversal off the early highs that was concerning. The action was similar to last year at this time during the week of the Magnificent 7 earnings releases. That is, an early pop higher because of the gains in the large market cap stocks, but the broader market lost steam into the close creating another negative reversal day.
There were other things going on in August of 2024 and the market was losing steam heading into those earnings last year, but there's no denying that early August historically has some issues.
The PCE Prices [inflation] data for June was mostly inline with estimates but a little higher than May's numbers.
"Personal income increased 0.3% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.4% decline in May.
"Personal spending increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following an upwardly revised unchanged reading (from -0.1%) in May.
"The PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) and 2.6% yr/yr (vs 2.4% in May); and the core-PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) and 2.8% yr/yr (vs 2.8% in May)."
Source: briefing.com
And of course we get the July jobs report this morning so the important data and numbers just keep coming. Estimates are looking for a gain of about 100,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Both of those would be weaker data than June's report.
I mentioned the S&P 500 (C-fund) above, but here is the full daily chart that I normally post. It remains above all of the key support levels so it isn't showing any signs of breaking, but once again those negative outside reversal days (red arrows) are not good signs, at least for the short-term.
Here's some comparable reversal data and stats from sentimentrader.com using the Nasdaq 100.
"Here's every time $QQQ gapped up > 1% to a new high then faded.[FONT=TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif] -- [/FONT] By 'new high', it's testing for 52-week high, not [always] an all-time high."
Source:
Short-term trouble (very short-term), longer-term almost a non event, and potentially bullish.
The dollar continues to leap higher and it helped hand the I-fund its 6th consecutive loss. More on the I-fund below, but UUP closed above its 200-day average for a second straight day. I usually look for 3 to 5 closes to confirm a breakout or breakdown.
The final July AutoTracker numbers are in. You can find the July winners posted here, and the final monthly standings here. The winners have been sent a message via the forum (and that should have sent an email to the address on file in the forum.)
Admin Note: I have an out of town family wedding this weekend so I will be traveling on Friday and Monday, which may impact Monday and Tuesday's commentaries. At the very least I will likely have to make them brief. Sorry for any inconvenience.
The DWCPF / S-fund has been flashing some warning signs with those negative reversal days in the last couple of weeks. It's been holding up so far and support continues to hold, although it is looking over a precipice below the key support near 2350. If that support does fail we have the 50-day EMA and an open gap just waiting for that breakdown.
ACWX (I-fund) has succumbed to the recent strength in the dollar and here it is after 6 straight negative closes, down by its 50-day EMA already. This is not a deal breaker and is normal pullback action, but if that 60 area fails, we could have some trouble on our hands. Yesterday's loss gave the I-fund its first negative monthly return of the year.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was flat after giving up a morning rally. The rising wedge formation held on the top side again, and these tend to break down but the overall chart has a bullish look to it. Today's jobs report could make or break the short-term.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend. Again, Monday and Tuesday's commentary may be brief due to a family wedding and travel.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks gapped up higher on Thursday but once again we saw a negative reversal day as the indices closed down and near the lows of the day. Microsoft and Meta held onto big gains but the rest of the market was sold as the day wore on. Apple and Amazon reported earnings after hours on Thursday. Both reports were strong but Amazon was down in after hours trading, while Apple was up about 3%. Yields were flat and the dollar was up again.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
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It was not a big loss for stocks yesterday but it was the size of the reversal off the early highs that was concerning. The action was similar to last year at this time during the week of the Magnificent 7 earnings releases. That is, an early pop higher because of the gains in the large market cap stocks, but the broader market lost steam into the close creating another negative reversal day.
There were other things going on in August of 2024 and the market was losing steam heading into those earnings last year, but there's no denying that early August historically has some issues.
The PCE Prices [inflation] data for June was mostly inline with estimates but a little higher than May's numbers.
"Personal income increased 0.3% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.4% decline in May.
"Personal spending increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following an upwardly revised unchanged reading (from -0.1%) in May.
"The PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) and 2.6% yr/yr (vs 2.4% in May); and the core-PCE Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) and 2.8% yr/yr (vs 2.8% in May)."
Source: briefing.com
And of course we get the July jobs report this morning so the important data and numbers just keep coming. Estimates are looking for a gain of about 100,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Both of those would be weaker data than June's report.
I mentioned the S&P 500 (C-fund) above, but here is the full daily chart that I normally post. It remains above all of the key support levels so it isn't showing any signs of breaking, but once again those negative outside reversal days (red arrows) are not good signs, at least for the short-term.
Here's some comparable reversal data and stats from sentimentrader.com using the Nasdaq 100.
"Here's every time $QQQ gapped up > 1% to a new high then faded.[FONT=TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif] -- [/FONT] By 'new high', it's testing for 52-week high, not [always] an all-time high."
Source:
Short-term trouble (very short-term), longer-term almost a non event, and potentially bullish.
The dollar continues to leap higher and it helped hand the I-fund its 6th consecutive loss. More on the I-fund below, but UUP closed above its 200-day average for a second straight day. I usually look for 3 to 5 closes to confirm a breakout or breakdown.
The final July AutoTracker numbers are in. You can find the July winners posted here, and the final monthly standings here. The winners have been sent a message via the forum (and that should have sent an email to the address on file in the forum.)
Admin Note: I have an out of town family wedding this weekend so I will be traveling on Friday and Monday, which may impact Monday and Tuesday's commentaries. At the very least I will likely have to make them brief. Sorry for any inconvenience.
The DWCPF / S-fund has been flashing some warning signs with those negative reversal days in the last couple of weeks. It's been holding up so far and support continues to hold, although it is looking over a precipice below the key support near 2350. If that support does fail we have the 50-day EMA and an open gap just waiting for that breakdown.
ACWX (I-fund) has succumbed to the recent strength in the dollar and here it is after 6 straight negative closes, down by its 50-day EMA already. This is not a deal breaker and is normal pullback action, but if that 60 area fails, we could have some trouble on our hands. Yesterday's loss gave the I-fund its first negative monthly return of the year.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was flat after giving up a morning rally. The rising wedge formation held on the top side again, and these tend to break down but the overall chart has a bullish look to it. Today's jobs report could make or break the short-term.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend. Again, Monday and Tuesday's commentary may be brief due to a family wedding and travel.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
