MrJohnRoss' Account Talk

[MrJohnRoss]

It still appears to me that the market is on shaky legs, not sure which way it wants to go. A number of oscillators I watch are heading south, but prices haven't really followed suit quite yet. On top of that, now Mr Tran is acting like he wants to perk up. See chart below:





There's still no clear trend up or down these last few days, as we've just been bouncing around. Futures are pointing to a lower open by about 52 points as of this writing, but that often times doesn't mean a whole lot.

My composite system is still reading a -1 sell signal, but my VIX system is looking like it's very near a sell signal as well. My cycle analysis also says we're very near an intermediate turning point in the days ahead.

Good luck!

 

[jkenjohnson]

Is today the beginning of a pullback?

 

[ravensfan]

Is today the beginning of a pullback?

We have been on a tear since the election, so a pullback would certainly be in order.
Grab some popcorn and lets see what happens...opcorn:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Is today the beginning of a pullback?

Not sure jken, but the odds are looking like it's certainly possible.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

We're within a whisker of going to a full -3 reading on the composite system today. The VIX shot way up, but turned around and closed below the threshold for a sell signal. We remain at -1, but just barely.

It'll be interesting to see how tomorrow closes for the long weekend.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

A rough day for the markets today, but it staged a bit of a comeback in the final hour.

Could it be that after the November Trump rally, we're now entering a period of consolidation? Looking at the chart below, it certainly looks likely.





Compare the rally in late June of last year (post Brexit) with the Trump rally in November that looks to be consolidating. Let's hope we don't have another 4 1/2 month period of sideways market action.

Bonds had a nice rally today, as yields continue to fall. 10-year Treasuries now yield 2.33% compared to the high of 2.62% in Dec. The big driver there was the large gap down in the dollar, which finally broke the 50 DMA, something it hasn't done since late Sept. (See chart below).




This also helped the PM's and miners. Let's see how long they can continue their rally.

The VIX system I use has finally triggered a sell signal today. That puts my composite system at a full -3 sell signal.

Good luck!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Awesome charts MJR! Thank you! :smile:

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Impressive rally today. The VIX system triggered a buy signal yesterday, and today the PMO system triggered a buy signal. That puts the composite system at +1, a buy signal.

I'm not crazy about jumping in at this point, as I think the VIX has no where to go but up. Also, if the market stays range bound, I'm buying in at the top of the range.

However, I'm not going to argue with my system at this point. Moving to 100% I Fund as of C.O.B. 1/25/17.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Big sell-off, but a come back rally at the close. You can see the rally rather clearly on the 60 min chart:





That being said, it looks like volatility and choppiness are back in vogue. Momentum oscillators might get chewed up in this kind of market, so ya gotta be careful. Luckily, the markets don't always behave like this, and often trend in one direction or the other for long periods of time. Unfortunately, that time is not right now.

All of my oscillators went from a full buy signal to a full sell signal today. As I stated in my previous post, "I thought the VIX had no where to go but up, and that I might be buying at the top of the range". Bingo.

Having a system and sticking to your guns is a difficult thing to do. With all that being said, I'm gonna take this loss, follow my system, and put myself in park until the path higher becomes clear again.

100% G Fund as of C.O.B. 1/31/17.

Good luck!

 

[JamesE]

Thanks JR, appreciate the thoughts.

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Interesting to see how Mr Tran is behaving lately. Five straight down days from the peak on Jan 26. See chart below:




Technically, as long as we hold that recent low around 9046, we should be okay. I don't like the fact that we blew right through the 50 DMA. The PPO had a negative crossover, and is heading lower. The Stoch also crossed below the 50 line, so the gas pedal is being let up. Perhaps we'll stay in a range, but right now, things are looking dicey if we get much more downside. With Mr Tran usually being the market leader, that's not a good sign.

As far as the S&P goes, I think it's actually looking a little better:




After the Nov 7 Trump rally, prices have pretty much stayed "within the box", except for the little head and shoulders fake-out higher last week. Prices are still well above the 50 DMA, and a case could be made that there is a rising trendline in place from the 2233 low, to the lows of the last few days (dark green dashed line). Although the PPO is gliding lower, it's not plunging, and the Stoch hasn't failed the 50% line, at least not yet.

So we've got some mixed signals, that's for sure. The Nasdaq is sure looking good right now. The dollar looks to be continuing it's path lower, which should help PM's and miners.

My composite system remains at -3, a full sell signal, so I'll wait for the oscillators to cycle back (as they always do), before heading back into these choppy waters.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

After Friday's nice gain, both the PMO and VIX systems generated buy signals. That puts the composite at +1, which puts me back in equities.

100% S Fund as of C.O.B. 2/6/17.

Good luck!

 

[Cactus]

After Friday's nice gain, both the PMO and VIX systems generated buy signals. That puts the composite at +1, which puts me back in equities.

100% S Fund as of C.O.B. 2/6/17.

Good luck!

WOW! That's quite a change from your -3 (stay out) the day before. With the increased volatility this is going to make for some wild swings. Make sure you don't get whipsawed out of making some money.

 

[Whipsaw]

Did somebody say Whipsaw?!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Been a nice ride since jumping back in on 2/6. The 60 min chart of the S&P (below) is a good vantage point to see how strong this advance has been:




With that being said, I would not be surprised to see a pause or consolidation coming up. The daily chart is posting an RSI reading of 75, which is a red flag. Last time we had that high a reading, we went sideways for a month. We've also closed above the upper BB on the daily chart for three straight days; yet another sign of possibly too much too soon.

Nasdaq has been phenomenal, and Mr Tran is (finally) looking like he may break to the upside to record territory. My composite system is reading a bullish +3, so I'll hang on to this wild ride a little longer. Keep that bull tinky flowing Chief!

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Hmmm... another day, another 100 points higher on the Dow. Amazing.

The RSI on the S&P is now over 78. Rare air indeed. The "engine is hot" light is flashing now. The chart is looking a bit like a ski jump. See chart below:





Note that we had yet another day closing above the upper BB.

In the meantime, what I also found interesting today was that volatility, as measured by Mr. VIX, was higher by 11.45%, even though the market screamed higher. What's up with that?

That was enough to bump my VIX system to a negative, but my composite remains positive at +1. Early warning perhaps? We shall see.

Good luck!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

The Trump rally is finally looking like it's taking a breather. When I jumped on board the S Train on Feb 6, it was hard to tell if C or S had an advantage. That changed by the end of the month, as large cap stocks have decisively outperformed small caps.

As of today, my PMO & PPO oscillators are both reading -1, but interestingly, the VIX system has not given a sell signal yet. With the market just floating a little lower the last few days, perhaps there's no need for it to climb higher at this point. In any event, I'm going to step aside. Would love to see prices reach the 50 DMA before turning higher, but that may be wishful thinking.




100% G Fund as of C.O.B. 3/8/17.

Good luck!

 

[airlift]

MJR, we are missing your posts and will appreciate your current analysis. Are your undicators showing a wait, or a buy; or do you believe that a rally is ready to go? Thanks in advance.

 

[JamesE]

+1 🖒

 

[rktect1]

The Trump rally is finally looking like it's taking a breather. !

Just wait for the exhale on this one.