Market Talk

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wonder how or if this will effect Iran's plans to sell oil in euro's start 03-20-06?

Angry Iran to review ties
The Asian Age India | Seema Mustafa

New Delhi: Iran has decided to review all economic and trade ties with the countries that voted for the European Union resolution at the IAEA board of governors meeting in Vienna.

Iranian foreign office spokesperson Hamid Reza Asefi told reporters in Tehran that all "these countries will suffer as our economic and political relations are in coordination with each other." The strong response has completely negated India's confident assertion that economic relations, including the gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan, will not be hit. Mr Asefi said that Iran was "surprised by India," an indication that New Delhi had not taken the Iranian government into confidence.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad had telephoned Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the eve of the vote on the EU-3 resolution but had not been informed of the government's decision to vote against. Foreign secretary Shyam Saran admitted to reporters here on Monday that the decision was "taken late at night."

The Iran government, under tremendous public pressure to act against the countries that had voted against, has also decided to write formal letters of objection to the countries that voted for the resolution. It was very apparent from the first formal reference to India by the Iran government that it had taken strong objection to New Delhi's failure to inform it of the decision.

"Punish India" was the call from Iran's Majlis Energy Committee chief Kamal Daneshyar, the first salvo against New Delhi from a traditional friend. Sources spoke of a high-level of dismay and anger in Tehran against the Manmohan Singh government for supporting the EU-3 resolution at the IAEA.

Mr Daneshyar's remarks, not bound by government bureaucracy, are indicative of the mood within Iran with Majlis Energy Committee chief Kamal Daneshyar, the first salvo against New Delhi from a traditional friend. Sources spoke of a high level of dismay and anger in Tehran against the Manmohan Singh government for supporting the EU-3 resolution at the IAEA.

Mr Daneshyar's remarks, not bound by government bureaucracy, are indicative of the mood within Iran with the Tehran Times quoting him as saying, "Britain, Germany and France should be omitted from the list of economic ties with Iran." This, he said would be a response to those countries "that backstab despite having major economic ties with Iran." He added, "among the countries on the list that should be punished is India." New Delhi is currently negotiating a $7-billion gas pipeline with Iran, with the government here insisting that its anti-vote will not impact adversely on this project.

The Tehran Times known to be close to the government reported, "India danced to the US tune at the IAEA board of governors meeting, despite having signed a contract with Tehran to import Iranian natural gas." The Iranian government is now faced with volatile public opinion from within, that is reflected in the local newspapers calling upon a review of economic ties with the countries that supported the EU resolution. In fact, reports now suggest that the majority of members of the influential Iranian Majlis have signed a petition urging the government to back out of the additional protocol allowing surprise IAEA checks on its nuclear facilities.

Foreign secretary Shyam Saran, fielded by the government to defend the Indian vote, claimed that relations with Iran were not going to be affected. This is not the view coming out of Tehran with the influential Majlis members demanding a strong response from the government against the countries that voted for the EU resolution. The focus, presently is on what the newspapers there describe as the "European Big Three" with pressure building up to suspend economic relations with Britain, Germany and France as well as countries like India.

Iran's foreign minister Manuchehr Mottaki said that Tehran would never step out of a dialogue, but that it would expand this to "include new countries in talks." He said that Iran would use "all diplomatic measures to maintain our right." Mr Daneshyar was more forthcoming in demanding that the Iranian government should develop ties with countries that have "sincere and brotherly relations" with Tehran. The groundswell of public reaction within Iran against the EU resolution appears to have taken India by surprise that is finding it difficult now to hardsell its decision to vote along with the US to the Iranian government. The strong response from within the Majlis is expected to seriously affect relations between the two countries.

The Americans are, however, extremely happy with sources pointing out that the Bush administration had worked to solicit Indian support to counter Iran's claim that the issue was seen differently by the developing world as against the developed world. US undersecretary of state for political affairs who negotiated the civilian nuclear deal with India said, "this is a significant step forward in the international effort to isolate Iran."

An AFP report from Washington stated, "US officials claimed a victory after India, which had resisted hauling Iran before the world body (UN Security Council) voted for the resolution." The issue had been taken up in detail with Prime Minister Singh by US President George W. Bush as well as US secretary of state Condoleeza Rice, and Mr Burns of course. It was made clear to him that his support for the EU resolution was necessary to obtain US Congress concurrence for the civilian nuclear deal.

http://www.iht.com/getina/files/278885.html

Interesting to read the dialog, after the article.
http://www.aljazeera.com/cgi-bin/news_service/middle_east_full_story.asp?service_id=9700
 
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Cramer was talking about Saudia Arabia wanting to buy oil drilling rigs so that they could improve their production levels. Those things are almost strategic assets at this point in time. I have four pure drilling plays in my portfolio and don't plan to sell any any time soon - unless they want to pay a nice premium. That's the only way the Saudias will get rigs. Let their new friend the Chinese build some for sale, hah.
 
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Rolo wrote:
Quips wrote:
Well, it depends how one defines "irresponisbility" and how it "affects" us all; one may also say that the abundance of gas guzzlers on the road is also a matter of the American consumer's choice and "how it affects us all" in the form of gasoline consumption and the price we all pay at the pump.
"That is why we have crap like" $3 a gallon for regular gasoline now...lots of luck ...
I don't complain about $3/gal. because I know what other countries pay. Also, it's like $60/mo. increase for me for every $1 increase per gallon. Chump change. Besides, we had a free ride with gasoline prices for about 15 years now; they haven't gone up like everything else has.

Enjoying the sound of my turbos suckin' in air to burn more gas hardly compares to irresponsibly retiring in poverty and expecting the the other, responsible people, to pay for it.

Quips wrote:
and a stock market that is directionless.

My 38% return over the past 12 months hardly seems directionless. Dahell are you talking about?

Quips wrote:
And besides that, we have seen how both investors and corporate America created the tech bubble in 2000, that resulted in a crash that wiped out half of most people's portfolios. And Wall Street is the answer? lots of luck

Fooey! The investors that lost their a$$ in the bubble were greedy. Why were they greedy? Because they bought on greed at/near the top thinking it was a "sure thing" and never got out for the same reason. At least the Dutch got to plant tulipsafter their bust. It is your money, you are responsible for it.
Many are complaining about paying $3-3.25 a gallon for gasoline; consumers are complaining that gasoline prices are cutting into discresionary spending and corporations -- apart from energy and directly energy related -- are complaining it is cutting into profit margins.

Again, it is a matter of priorities as to how one spends his own cash or what investments one makes; if one lives in a slum and drives a Cadillac that "sucks in air to burn more gas", well, fine, but that affect the whole economy too. Not that Rolo lives in a slum, but I like the use of that metaphor.

When a nation's economy and when it's overall corporate environment is affected one market segment -- energy -- as it is now, something is out of balance. That is just common sense. Much of that hinges on those who irresponsibly use energy.

If one spendsa disproportionate share of one's disposible income on a very nice primary residence that is financed with an ARM or an interest only loan, well, that is their own perogative too. And if those same people choose to take what equity they may have in that property and consume that in a multitude of ways, again, they are free to do so. And if that means a zero personal savings rate, and if that means the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, well then that's what it takes: however it is those same investors as a group that apply pressure to other segments of the economy to grow through the use of their assets, and not by debt.

New bankrupcy laws or no, many more will thus go broke on a hope that has far surpassed sound judgement and common sense.

The majority of investors -- institutional as well as individual -- were burned by the bubble. To call them all "greedy" is simplification. You may as well call Wall Street and tech companies greedy -- and stupid -- for creating an infrastructure that was not sustainable by the very market it was a part of and who weren't responsible for how they handled their shareholder's investments: it all came down like a house of cards based on the decisions of corporate executives and businessmen who exuded confidence but as a group wrecked over a trillion dollars in capital based on bad judgements.

Directionless market? Let the numbers point it out:

YTD "C" Fund returns: 1.78%

Five year return on the "C" Fund: -2.71%

The "S" and "I" Funds have done better.
 
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The market could be getting ready for a short term rally, before the sell-off everyone is talking about.

Comments from aTech:
While yesterday's 1.23 point gain by the S&P 500 was just 0.1%, it was still 20% bigger than the gains of previous four days combined!

Each of the three 3-day quiet periods circled in the next chart made a bigger change on the fourth day than the total change during the previous three. The first one, in December, declined on the fourth day while the next two made advances. The following days, both in December and in August, saw even bigger changes, and both were down. As I suggested above, a down day today would set the stage for a significant rally thereafter.
29derfSP.gif


Let's look at the chart of the S&P 100 for comparison. We have the same picture here. The 5-day average did not fall as low as it did for the NASDAQ 100, and that may explain the somewhat slower upturn, but the 20-day average has made up for it by reaching a new interim high. Both of these indicators are signaling strength directly ahead.

29derfOEXSig.gif


There were no changes among the 29 indicators
1210 on the S&P has held up and it could be tested again today..........
 
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Here is the relevant paragraph from the latest Tropical Discussion out ofMiami (805 AM Thursday)...

<<ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SIGNATURE
CURVATURE IN THE LOW CLOUDS. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
19N-27N BETWEEN 53W-58W.>>

This time of year, shear increases in the Atlantic as cold fronts increase in strength. The land is cooling so the temperature contrast is increasing -- it was in the 30's at International Falls MN the other day.We can expect this wave to remain undeveloped. For the same reason, the northern Gulf also is an unfavorable location as cold dry air is free to drain south out of the midwest. As they say in Texas, there's nothing between them and the north pole but a barbed wire fence.

The Caribbean is the place to watch in October and November. Storms here encounter minimal shear and typically grow into very large systems, very juicy, which move in unpredictable ways.

Dave
 
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DANGGG! and I thought I was the only one talking about a selloff.....!!!!:shock:

I can't tell what is the most miserable, the wait for the market to make its move or knowing what powers to be have done to our economy....its just sickening....I guess growing up in the properous years of the 1900's didn't help much, but todays economy in my opinion isn't 25% of what we had.....I knowefficiencys and technology changed, but gee, if you had see this nation go to work back then, today just doesn't even compare.....:^

Where's that light switch......why do I feel like a somewhat of a depression coming our way......many losing their earnings, savings, and retirementswhile their indeptness makes them someones slave for years on end with nothing to show for their lives at the end.....ohhh the humanity.....:?

Gonna have to get something else moving in the future to pull us out of this one....

:dude:
 
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How about this comparison. In 2000 Dow failed to reach nice high after run in Apr and Sep. Then big pull back for Oct.

big.chart


Now....

big.chart
 
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Interesting pattern Vec.....but to not consider the overall economic picture of either time would be a poor evaluation of the situation.....

In 99, the economics (market)is different than today....today is more like 2000.

Take a look at the same period a year later than Oct 99 and see what you see....it's shocking as well as the economics (market wise)

:^
 
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Your right Tech, I should have looked closer. I deleted the 1999 chart so we can have a look see at the 2000 chart. Nice observation.:^
 
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The Technician wrote:
Interesting pattern Vec.....but to not consider the overall economic picture of either time would be a poor evaluation of the situation.....

In 99, the economics (market)is different than today....today is more like 2000.

Take a look at the same period a year later than Oct 99 and see what you see....it's shocking as well as the economics (market wise)

:^
take a look at April 05:^
 
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S&P came close to 1210 again.... Low was 1211 and we got some buying.... Could see a positive day due to end of quarter window dressing.... Talk about a narrow trading range lately!!!!!!
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Sept. 29, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:.Stox rise as vestors look past energy worries!


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at...........1227.68, up +10.79
CMF (money flow) at.0.000, dn
RSI (strength) at.....53.5, up
MACD (trend)....bearish
S-STO (signal)...bullish
P-SAR (signal)...bearish
ROC (change)....bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at...........66.79, up +0.44

Tea Leaves:.................Mixed red & green.


Yak.

Remarks:.....Holding 65/35
S&P Stops:...Alert: 1216, Trail: 1204.
Oil Markers:.<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.
 
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NOW LISTEN UP:
The I-fund has done well during the last 2 days.

That is all.
 
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Greg,

The Nikkei is now at 13,660, up another 42 points currently. This is the real deal and will eventually pull the Dow along. Step up and get some.
 
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Birchtree wrote:
Greg,

The Nikkei is now at 13,660, up another 42 points currently. This is the real deal and will eventually pull the Dow along. Step up and get some.
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!:cool:
 
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End of quarter dressing is on the table ......look out below later on!!!

Hey, the price of gas just jumped over 10% in one day here....with gas inventories and oil inventories near or at normal, I wonder what excuse do they have to give the newspapers today for the jump ....lets see....on yea the sun came up....kinda running out of ideas for gas price increases.....

Personally, with this volatility, I wouldn't blame people to propose putting regulation on gas and oil futures....or take them off the market all together.....end result would be a true mixed market since there is no play on current energy sources.....

I guess Greenspud reasons that the fuel costs are just temporary.....but they stick around enough to affect the economy you idiot!!!!! Therefore you thickheaded Greenspud....it's inflationary! What are you.....adumba$$!!!

There, I got it off my chest.....

Have a good day.......

:dude:
 
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The Technician wrote:
End of quarter dressing is on the table ......look out below later on!!!

Hey, the price of gas just jumped over 10% in one day here....with gas inventories and oil inventories near or at normal, I wonder what excuse do they have to give the newspapers today for the jump ....lets see....on yea the sun came up....kinda running out of ideas for gas price increases.....

Personally, with this volatility, I wouldn't blame people to propose putting regulation on gas and oil futures....or take them off the market all together.....end result would be a true mixed market since there is no play on current energy sources.....

I guess Greenspud reasons that the fuel costs are just temporary.....but they stick around enough to affect the economy you idiot!!!!! Therefore you thickheaded Greenspud....it's inflationary! What are you.....adumba$$!!!

There, I got it off my chest.....

Have a good day.......

:dude:
by nav on TT.....

Now we need to see some disbeleif in the rally, in the form of

This is the end of the quarter window dressing.
This is a wave C of B or wave 2 (Prechter) ending here .
This is a dead cat bounce that will crap out.
Internals suck on this rally. Where's the breadth ? Where's the volume ?
Fannie mae imploding, Consumer imploding, All the nasty fundamentals out there in the world, etc
 
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