Market Talk

[Spaf]

imported post

The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly

Early Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: Sept. 25, 2005


Market News.

Kingdom Talk:.Stox unsettled, as Vestors mull storm damages. Some talk that stox were strongly discounted, and are due for a lift, if lube would settle down, however, note the RSI, below. The current trend is bearish, and with the IFT delay any swing stox play could be risky. Conservatively, the G-fund looks to be warm and fuzzy until the weather clears and the market re-establishes the primary movement as bullish.

Elsewhere:....Note. Lube prices were higher for the past week.

Other News: -> http://www.briefing.com/SilverIndex.htm

-> http://www.bullandbearwise.com/


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at...............1215.29, dn -22.62 for the week.
CMF (money flow) at..+0.039, up
RSI (strength) at........44.3, dn [O.B.=70, O.S.=30]
MACD (trend)......bearish
S-STO (signal).....bearish
P-SAR (signal).....bearish
ROC (change)......bearish

Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at.....64.19, up +2.31 for the week.

Attachment:..S&P (3mo) chart ending 9/23. Added: 20dMA, P-SAR, RSI, MACD, S-STO, and ROC.


Tea leaves:......Red (short term).


Yak.

Remarks:.........Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:.Alert: xxxx, Trailing: xxxx.
Oil Markers: <64 = ok, 64-69 = worry, >69 = critical.
Weekly TSP Returns: G=+.01, F=+.01, C=-.24, S=-.30, I=-.15

 

[Dave M]

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It has to be the first time that the National Hurricane Center's forecasts -- inherently innaccurate -- have had such profound effects on the markets. They send out a plane which finds a slight increase the central pressure,the storm is downgraded from a 5 to a 4, or from a 4 to a 3,and the market rallies on the news.

Has this happened in the past and I just wasn't paying attention?

Dave

 

[teknobucks]

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Nigerian rebels occupy oil fields over leader arrest...

Fighters in Asari’s 6000-strong Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force set a deadline of this weekend for his release before the group unleashes what it called, in a statement, “violence and grave mayhem never before reported in the history of the Nigerian state”. The statement went on: “We will kill every iota of oil operations in the Niger Delta. We will destroy anything and everything. We will challenge our enemies in our territory and we shall feed them to the vultures.”

http://www.sundayherald.com/51904

 

[teknobucks]

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Dave M wrote:

It has to be the first time that the National Hurricane Center's forecasts -- inherently innaccurate -- have had such profound effects on the markets. They send out a plane which finds a slight increase the central pressure,the storm is downgraded from a 5 to a 4, or from a 4 to a 3,and the market rallies on the news.

Has this happened in the past and I just wasn't paying attention?

Dave

NO not that i know of..........the frequency of storm activity and the sophistacation of weather detectionequipment has got us here.

next thing u know there will be a document from noaa managementforbiding you to trade certain stocks.

tekno

 

[teknobucks]

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Greenspan: We've lost control of budget deficit taichi
NEW 9/25/2005 4:23:08 AM
Breton: Greenspan worried about deficit

French finance minister says both men are disappointed over how countries manage their budgets.

September 24, 2005: 9:29 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told France's Finance Minister Thierry Breton the United States has "lost control" of its budget deficit, the French minister said Saturday.

"'We have lost control,' that was his expression," Breton told reporters after a bilateral meeting with Greenspan.

"The United States has lost control of their budget at a time when racking up deficits has been authorized without any control (from Congress)," Breton said.

"We were both disappointed that the management of debt is not a political priority today," he added.

Ministers from the Group of Seven rich nations on Friday called for vigorous action around the world to curb rising imbalances in international trade and investment accounts.

A decrease in the U.S. budget deficit were cited by the G7 as one way to ease those imbalances. Treasury Secretary John Snow said the U.S. administration was still committed to halving its budget deficit by 2009.

Breton spoke as International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo Rato said U.S. plans to cut its government expenditures now looked ambitious in the light of huge reconstruction costs to be borne in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Breton said: "The situation that is creating tension today on the currency market ... is clearly the American deficit."

The United States needed to address its budget deficit, he said, adding: "It seems to me that my counterpart John Snow is completely aware of this, he wants to harness the problem, but it seems to me he doesn't have the room for maneuver."

Breton added that after hearing Greenspan talk about inflation: "One has the feeling -- though he didn't say so -- that interest rates will probably continue to rise slightly until his departure."

Greenspan is due to step down as Fed chairman in January after 18 years in the post.

Asked if G7 finance chiefs would meet as usual in February next year as well as gathering for an extraordinary meeting in December this year -- partly to pay tribute to Greenspan before his departure -- the French finance chief said: "Yes, yes. Next February as well."

He said France was "not against" the idea of enlarging the Group of Seven, a notion that has gained impetus at these meetings.

CNN, Reuters

 

[teknobucks]

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Sunday session>>>>>>>>>>>>>

"London Brent crude, open for a special weekend session on the International Petroleum Exchange, was off 94 cents at $61.50 a barrel by 1025 GMT after sliding $2.16 on Friday."



[url]http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp[/url]

 

[teknobucks]

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since dma is no longer here....well as dma anyway...LOL

c&p off TT:

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told France's Finance Minister Thierry Breton the United States has "lost control" of its budget deficit, the French minister said on Saturday.

"'We have lost control,' that was his expression," Breton told reporters after a bilateral meeting with Greenspan.

"The United States has lost control of their budget at a time when racking up deficits has been authorized without any control (from Congress)," Breton said.

Greenspan to French finmin:US lost deficit control

[url]http://today.reuters.com/investing/finance...AN-UPDATE-1.XML[/url]

Stagflation + Debt Deflation = DEPRESSION!

With oil prices high and the pace of the US economic recovery in question, some in financial markets are becoming wary of a return to 1970s-style “stagflation” featuring spiraling prices and faltering growth.

[url]http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?p...7-7-2004_pg5_18[/url]

Please Allow 60 Seconds To Lock Limit Down!

CRANK It UP!

[url]http://www.maui.net/~mauiben/sep12dow2005.html[/url]

Da BULLZ Climbing Their "Wall Of Worry"!

 

[Greg]

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[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]Crude Futures Fall in Rare Sunday Trading[/font]

[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]Sunday September 25, 10:45 AM EDT[/font]

[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]NEW YORK (AP) — Crude oil futures fell sharply in unusual Sunday trading as it appeared that oil rig and refinery damage from Hurricane Rita was less than originally feared.

Oil prices had climbed steadily last week as Rita churned through the Gulf of Mexico as a category 4 hurricane, but fell Friday as the storm weakened before landfall early Saturday morning.

In early trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a barrel of light crude for November delivery was quoted at $63.08, down $1.12. Heating oil dropped 7.6 cents to $1.8895 per gallon, while unleaded gasoline fell 10.16 cents to $1.984 gallon.

On London's International Petroleum Exchange, which also opened trading earlier than usual, Brent crude futures tumbled $2.59 to $62.01.

The Nymex and IPE offered extended Sunday hours in hopes of mitigating any volatility in the wake of Rita. Given the relative lack of damage from Rita, especially compared to Hurricane Katrina's devastation, trading was light, however.

Rita did cause damage to some of the Texas Gulf Coast's refineries. Valero Energy Corp.'s Port Arthur refinery, which produces 255,000 barrels a day, could be out of service two weeks to a month due to damages.

Motiva Enterprises Inc. and Citgo Petroleum Corp. also reported damage to plants in Port Arthur and Lake Charles, La., respectively. However, other refineries in the Houston area operated by Exxon Mobil Corp., BP PLC, Marathon Petroleum Co. and Valero appeared to have sustained only minor damage. [/font]

 

[robo]

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Futures seem to like falling oil prices..... Nikkei rocking......

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

 

[Spaf]

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Greg wrote:

[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]Crude Futures Fall in Rare Sunday Trading[/font]

[font=Verdana,Sans-Serif]Sunday September 25, 10:45 AM EDT[/font]

See complete article above :}

Informative, Thanks..Greg,

Still they have to get back in production, which will take some time. Some need employees, some need power, some need repairs, some.....well it's going to take a while.

Energy has been a critical market worry for near two years.

The US gets hit by two big hurricanes in the Gulf production area. MHO this places the TSP in the same picture of peril!

Go to http://www.barchart.com and explore the exchange funds akin to TSP funds [IVV, IJR, EFA]. Then take a look at % Change and %YTD. How is Latin America doing? What about Brazil?

TSP is good, but the question I suggest is it good enough to place all the eggs in that basket?

Something to think about? Maybe!.

Rgds Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

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TSP does provide the opportunity to take a 100% position in the fund of ones' choice. To me that is a great advantage especially once a power account has been built allowing opportunity during our golden years. It takes money to make money.

 

[The_Technician]

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I have one thing to say....the Accumulation of current S&P is at April levels....and not showing any gains...still looking for continued failures through end of year....

Here's a funny...............Don't get your pants wet over it, move out of New Orleans!!!

:dude:

 

[Quips]

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TSP provides no index for developing markets, i.e. Brazil, Korea, India, China, etc.

That can be found in American Funds, for examle.

 

[teknobucks]

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will it gap and crap or run a bit???

either way i'm stepping back in C & I a bit......market goes up on diaster.... will it go down on relief??



tekno

 

[The_Technician]

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Here lets see if this shows up.....maybe I can show a Accum plot of late from my data......

Don't pay any attention to the green and red arrows, they're pointless at the moment....

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

imported post

I see we are getting some more early morning hype on the market.....the only thing I see as the result of it is just alot of air expelling in the afternoons:zz

Maybe not such an upbeat of a day ......week .....month ......:shock::end:

:dude:

 

[Spaf]

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Uh ho! It looks like Krude is scattering the Vestors!:'

 

[The_Technician]

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A rough perspective on things and prices…

Here’s a story about earnings, prices, taxes, and the torqued sense of economics.



As I was standing out in my yard contemplating building a three horse stall shed, I realized that I needed six 4x 6 treated lumber for the headers. The lumber would be covered so it’s debatable on whether it would really need to be treated. So I called up Lowe’s to get a price for such beams and before taxes it would be $28.00, after taxes (local rate is 10%) it would be $30.80 for each 4x6 beam.

It struck a nerve in my body and I said WOW!.....I however decided to experiment on time and money and decided to see how much it would cost me for what it would essentially be two 4 X 6’s from on of my pine trees taken down during the latest natural disasters. To do this I would have to cut one of my pine trunks that was about 10” diameter down the middle to get equivalent or better lumber. I had the lumber, I had the chainsaw, and I had the time. It took about an hour, taken it easy cutting away at the tree down the middle to get two fine, no knotted long leaf pine 4X10 split logs 15 ft long. Now for pine this was fine wood, no knots and slow growing pine, a 40 year old tree. I decided how much the equivalent lumber on the market would cost. It came about $70.00 after taxes and all….and I didn’t even figure in the gas to go get it! After contemplating it for a minute it occurred to me that it would have taken me approx. three hours of work to pay the earned income taxes and the cost of sale tax and the cost of lumber. That was outrageous, I would have to work 3 hours to buy two pieces of lumber!!!! Even at my high income bracket!!!!



Now I'mcontemplating where we have gone in this world….



:?

 

[cowboy]

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As I was standing out in my yard contemplating building a three horse stall shed, I realized that I needed six 4x 6 treated lumber for the headers.That was outrageous, I would have to work 3 hours to buy two pieces of lumber!!!! Even at my high income bracket!!!!


LOL! Just a thought butthe solution should be easy. Obviously you have 3 horses otherwise you would not need the stalls. I would personally sell the 3 horses and enjoy the inflated income you would get from them plus not having the labor or cost of feed to house something that is really non-essential. Or another thought would be to down size and sell two horses so that the remaining one fits in the one horse stall as you can only ride one at a time anyway. Now if your concerned about the wrath of a spouse if said horses were sold. Plead with here to donate the sale of the ponies to the disaster homeless. What women has the heart to say no. Therefor saving you money in the long run.:^If you took my post too seriously than you need to relax and enjoy the ponies and pay the price!

 

[pyriel]

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How much return are you getting by keeping your horses around. Are they giving you positive or negative cashflow? I would like to ride a horse (even a pony) one of this day...