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Market Talk
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
imported post
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Sept. 26, Closing
Market News.
Kingdom Talk:.Krude rides! Lube rallies, stox retreat to small gain.
Elsewhere:....Uncertainty over damages by storm.
Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.
Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at............1215.63, up +0.34
CMF (money flow) at.0.052, up
RSI (strength) at.....44.5, up
MACD (trend)....bearish
S-STO (signal)...bullish*
P-SAR (signal)...bearish
ROC (change)....bearish
Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at...........65.82, up +1.63
Tea Leaves:.................Red. *Do I see a green leaf?
Yak.
Remarks:.....Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:...Alert: NA, Trail: NA
Oil Markers:.<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.
The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date: Sept. 26, Closing
Market News.
Kingdom Talk:.Krude rides! Lube rallies, stox retreat to small gain.
Elsewhere:....Uncertainty over damages by storm.
Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.
Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at............1215.63, up +0.34
CMF (money flow) at.0.052, up
RSI (strength) at.....44.5, up
MACD (trend)....bearish
S-STO (signal)...bullish*
P-SAR (signal)...bearish
ROC (change)....bearish
Light Crude (NYM)
Closed at...........65.82, up +1.63
Tea Leaves:.................Red. *Do I see a green leaf?
Yak.
Remarks:.....Holding 100/0
S&P Stops:...Alert: NA, Trail: NA
Oil Markers:.<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.
imported post
Greenspan is at it again ...
Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said speculative buying may be driving up housing prices and creating a risk for the U.S. economy because so many Americans rely on home appreciation to support their spending.
The so-called froth in housing markets may now be spilling over into mortgage markets, Greenspan said in a speech to the American Bankers Association annual convention in Palm Desert, California. The abundance of interest-only loans and ``exotic'' variable-rate mortgages ``are developments that bear close scrutiny,'' he said.
The unconventional mortgages are letting buyers who barely qualify purchase homes at inflated prices, and a slump in price gains may lead to losses for both borrowers and lenders, Greenspan said. The risk to the economy is magnified because about half the money consumers pull out of their homes when refinancing is used for consumption or repayment of debts.
``In the event of a widespread cooling in house prices, these borrowers, and the institutions that service them, could be exposed to significant losses,'' Greenspan said. Any retraction in sales or refinancing raises the risk of an ``adjustment'' in overall spending. How much is an ``open question,'' he said.
Home Sales Surge
For now, the U.S. housing market shows few signs of slowing down. Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly surged in August, and prices reached an all-time high, a report from the National Association of Realtors today showed. The median price rose 15.8 percent in the last 12 months, the biggest jump since 1979, to a record $220,000.
Sales of vacation houses, or homes that aren't always occupied by owners, are ``arguably at historically unprecedented levels,'' Greenspan said. ``This suggests that speculative activity may have had a greater role in generating the recent price increases than it customarily has had in the past.''
Adjustable-rate mortgages now represent 29.8 percent of all applications, according to a weekly survey covering about half of all mortgages that is conducted by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Two years ago at the same time, adjustable-rate mortgages were 22.7 percent of the market.
Housing stocks erased gains after the Greenspan speech. The Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding Index of 15 companies was up 0.4 percent at 4:15 p.m. after rising as much as 1.9 percent after today's housing report.
Home Equity
Douglas Duncan, chief economist of the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association, said Greenspan's comments arise from his roles as a steward of both monetary policy and bank regulation.
``Lenders who have risks should be careful, but there are mitigating factors out there that say there isn't likely to be any broad-based collapse of home prices with major economic implications,'' Duncan said.
The Fed chairman concluded that a fourth to a third of home equity cashed out by households is being used to finance consumer spending, the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth. Another 25 percent goes to repay credit card debt for goods and services already purchased.
For the year ending July, consumer spending rose 4.2 percent while salaries and wages were up 3.7 percent, adjusted for inflation. Households have filled the gap by spending their gains on assets such as real estate. The personal saving rate reached a record low of minus 0.6 percent in July.
Interest Rates
``The implied increase over the past decade in consumption expenditures financed by home equity extraction, rather than by income and other assets, would account for much of the decline in the personal savings rate since 1995,'' Greenspan noted.
Greenspan noted that a slump in investment spending channeled global savings into bonds, keeping long-term yields low and supporting interest-sensitive spending.
The Fed raised the benchmark short-term lending rate 11 times since June 2004 to 3.75 percent. Since that time, yields on the U.S. 10-year note, a benchmark for long-term mortgage rates, have fallen to 4.2 percent from 4.69 percent.
``This decline in mortgage rates and other long-term interest rates in the context of a concurrent rise in the federal funds rate is without precedent in recent U.S. experience,'' Greenspan said.
Trade, Current Account
Greenspan said if home purchases or refinancing declined, consumption would probably retrench and the saving rate would rise. This would also point to larger adjustments in the U.S. economy, he noted.
``Imports of consumer goods would surely decline as would those imported intermediate products that support them,'' he said. ``And one would assume that the U.S. trade and current- account deficits would shrink as well, all else being equal.''
Greenspan is at it again ...
Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said speculative buying may be driving up housing prices and creating a risk for the U.S. economy because so many Americans rely on home appreciation to support their spending.
The so-called froth in housing markets may now be spilling over into mortgage markets, Greenspan said in a speech to the American Bankers Association annual convention in Palm Desert, California. The abundance of interest-only loans and ``exotic'' variable-rate mortgages ``are developments that bear close scrutiny,'' he said.
The unconventional mortgages are letting buyers who barely qualify purchase homes at inflated prices, and a slump in price gains may lead to losses for both borrowers and lenders, Greenspan said. The risk to the economy is magnified because about half the money consumers pull out of their homes when refinancing is used for consumption or repayment of debts.
``In the event of a widespread cooling in house prices, these borrowers, and the institutions that service them, could be exposed to significant losses,'' Greenspan said. Any retraction in sales or refinancing raises the risk of an ``adjustment'' in overall spending. How much is an ``open question,'' he said.
Home Sales Surge
For now, the U.S. housing market shows few signs of slowing down. Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly surged in August, and prices reached an all-time high, a report from the National Association of Realtors today showed. The median price rose 15.8 percent in the last 12 months, the biggest jump since 1979, to a record $220,000.
Sales of vacation houses, or homes that aren't always occupied by owners, are ``arguably at historically unprecedented levels,'' Greenspan said. ``This suggests that speculative activity may have had a greater role in generating the recent price increases than it customarily has had in the past.''
Adjustable-rate mortgages now represent 29.8 percent of all applications, according to a weekly survey covering about half of all mortgages that is conducted by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Two years ago at the same time, adjustable-rate mortgages were 22.7 percent of the market.
Housing stocks erased gains after the Greenspan speech. The Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding Index of 15 companies was up 0.4 percent at 4:15 p.m. after rising as much as 1.9 percent after today's housing report.
Home Equity
Douglas Duncan, chief economist of the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association, said Greenspan's comments arise from his roles as a steward of both monetary policy and bank regulation.
``Lenders who have risks should be careful, but there are mitigating factors out there that say there isn't likely to be any broad-based collapse of home prices with major economic implications,'' Duncan said.
The Fed chairman concluded that a fourth to a third of home equity cashed out by households is being used to finance consumer spending, the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth. Another 25 percent goes to repay credit card debt for goods and services already purchased.
For the year ending July, consumer spending rose 4.2 percent while salaries and wages were up 3.7 percent, adjusted for inflation. Households have filled the gap by spending their gains on assets such as real estate. The personal saving rate reached a record low of minus 0.6 percent in July.
Interest Rates
``The implied increase over the past decade in consumption expenditures financed by home equity extraction, rather than by income and other assets, would account for much of the decline in the personal savings rate since 1995,'' Greenspan noted.
Greenspan noted that a slump in investment spending channeled global savings into bonds, keeping long-term yields low and supporting interest-sensitive spending.
The Fed raised the benchmark short-term lending rate 11 times since June 2004 to 3.75 percent. Since that time, yields on the U.S. 10-year note, a benchmark for long-term mortgage rates, have fallen to 4.2 percent from 4.69 percent.
``This decline in mortgage rates and other long-term interest rates in the context of a concurrent rise in the federal funds rate is without precedent in recent U.S. experience,'' Greenspan said.
Trade, Current Account
Greenspan said if home purchases or refinancing declined, consumption would probably retrench and the saving rate would rise. This would also point to larger adjustments in the U.S. economy, he noted.
``Imports of consumer goods would surely decline as would those imported intermediate products that support them,'' he said. ``And one would assume that the U.S. trade and current- account deficits would shrink as well, all else being equal.''
imported post
It is no coincidence that Greenspan says on Sunday that Washington has "lost control" of it budget deficit and the next day he says that U.S. consumers are depending on home appreciation --and thencashing out its equity in the form of a loan -- to financemore consumption at the expense of their own personal savings rate and home equity.
Hmmm, it is interesting. If many people-- say the ones who are taking out variable rate mortgages or interest only mortgages-- are buying into real estate at the expense of investing or saving for their retirement account, I see no big problem with that; hey, it depends on where one wants to put their priorities and money. If one wants to put all their savings -- present and future -- into their house/mortgage at the expense of their 401k, well, that is their perogative.
Meanwhile, if homeowners/mortgage payers want or need home equity loans to buy today what they don't want or need to defer somewhere down the line, well, that is their business too, however it will come at some cost in the future. Mortgaging the future is the same as extending one's mortgage into the future.
I would suppose one's personal savings rate is the difference between one's assets and liabilities. In theory, but in fact too, we all bare some part of the government debt and I'd be surprised if our tax rates are adequate to cover even the minimum payments on that debt. However, when one adds to that a zero or negative personal -- or individual -- savings rate, it just makes that burden even greater.
I don't know what is more efficient/cheaper: to increase taxes or to pay interest to those holding Treasury notes, bonds, etc. Probably it is best to decrease spending, or atleast stop its increase; however, even individual Americans can't contol their own urges to spend, thus a negative personal savings rate(?), so how can anyone expect the government to deliver on somethings its own people eschew?
It is no coincidence that Greenspan says on Sunday that Washington has "lost control" of it budget deficit and the next day he says that U.S. consumers are depending on home appreciation --and thencashing out its equity in the form of a loan -- to financemore consumption at the expense of their own personal savings rate and home equity.
Hmmm, it is interesting. If many people-- say the ones who are taking out variable rate mortgages or interest only mortgages-- are buying into real estate at the expense of investing or saving for their retirement account, I see no big problem with that; hey, it depends on where one wants to put their priorities and money. If one wants to put all their savings -- present and future -- into their house/mortgage at the expense of their 401k, well, that is their perogative.
Meanwhile, if homeowners/mortgage payers want or need home equity loans to buy today what they don't want or need to defer somewhere down the line, well, that is their business too, however it will come at some cost in the future. Mortgaging the future is the same as extending one's mortgage into the future.
I would suppose one's personal savings rate is the difference between one's assets and liabilities. In theory, but in fact too, we all bare some part of the government debt and I'd be surprised if our tax rates are adequate to cover even the minimum payments on that debt. However, when one adds to that a zero or negative personal -- or individual -- savings rate, it just makes that burden even greater.
I don't know what is more efficient/cheaper: to increase taxes or to pay interest to those holding Treasury notes, bonds, etc. Probably it is best to decrease spending, or atleast stop its increase; however, even individual Americans can't contol their own urges to spend, thus a negative personal savings rate(?), so how can anyone expect the government to deliver on somethings its own people eschew?
imported post
Quips---
I agree 100%. To live the American dream to the average worker is to become grossly in debt. I know because I've been there and done that. What concerns me is where are all these financial institutions coming up with the monetary resources to back up all their loans and credit lines. With bankruptsys at an all time high, someone has got to be paying the bill. It would seem that people with good credit are also suffering because of all the defaults that are going on. But I blame the banks also. They should more stringent with their loan policies.
Quips---
I agree 100%. To live the American dream to the average worker is to become grossly in debt. I know because I've been there and done that. What concerns me is where are all these financial institutions coming up with the monetary resources to back up all their loans and credit lines. With bankruptsys at an all time high, someone has got to be paying the bill. It would seem that people with good credit are also suffering because of all the defaults that are going on. But I blame the banks also. They should more stringent with their loan policies.
G
Greg
Guest
imported post
Show-me wrote:
Show-me wrote:
What happened? I didn't hear.
G
Greg
Guest
imported post
Rolo wrote:
A home has tax benefits. If you need/want money, you can out it out of your house. These tsp accounts are locked up til your 59 (with only exceptions being fun stuff like paying for cataphophic medical pays and lawyer bills for messy divorce) - joy-joy.
Rolo wrote:
I'm starting to think is that a nice home is a better investment for the future/retirement than these phoney-baloney plastic-banana bad-time tsp accounts.
A home has tax benefits. If you need/want money, you can out it out of your house. These tsp accounts are locked up til your 59 (with only exceptions being fun stuff like paying for cataphophic medical pays and lawyer bills for messy divorce) - joy-joy.
robo
Well-known member
imported post
Birchtree,
This Tech has the best charts....
Comments From a Tech before todays action...
Birchtree,
This Tech has the best charts....
Comments From a Tech before todays action...
Allthe Techs I follow are in the wait and see mode. This one currently has 75% in equities...The S&P 500 50-day moving average continued to decline and reached 1226.94 with the S&P below it at 1215.29. The 200-day moving average moved higher to 1199.29. It is so close to 1200 that it looks like it will easily be accomplished this week , but a check of the data reveals that it will take a rally of 50 points to move it there this week. The problem is that calculation requires that we cast off days on some of which the S&P closed above 1200. This means that right now it is easier for the moving average to turn down than it is for it to continue to advance.
Having the 200-day average turn down is technically weak, but it is far weaker to see the 50-day moving average drop below the longer one, and the good news is that 50-day moving average will take several weeks to drop below the 200-day average, and it will take a rather sharp decline by the S&P to accomplish it.ary Index and Quick Summary Index
t
The S&P 500 14-day Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) fell to 48.5% and will drop all the way to 27% by Thursday even if the S&P stays put -- the good news here is that rallies are not far behind once the RSI drops below 30%.
The S&P 500 bounced smartly off an uptrend line drawn from the June 30 low through the low on August 26. This uptrend line along with the downtrend line above, form a narrowing pattern from which a breakout must occur, and which is likely to kick off a continuing move in the same direction.
robo
Well-known member
imported post
The Program Trading Indicator extended the advance it started two weeks ago and has approached the 100 level at which a buy signal will occur. In the meantime it remains neutral.
The total Commitments of Traders reports for the Dow, NASDAQ 100 and S&P full and mini-contracts show that commercial hedgers reversed their field and are again getting short. I have no conclusions based on this chart -- it is neutral. The individual charts have the same story to tell.otal of Dow, NASDAQ and S&P Full and Mini Contracts -- Commitments of Traders
through Friday, September
The Program Trading Indicator extended the advance it started two weeks ago and has approached the 100 level at which a buy signal will occur. In the meantime it remains neutral.
The total Commitments of Traders reports for the Dow, NASDAQ 100 and S&P full and mini-contracts show that commercial hedgers reversed their field and are again getting short. I have no conclusions based on this chart -- it is neutral. The individual charts have the same story to tell.otal of Dow, NASDAQ and S&P Full and Mini Contracts -- Commitments of Traders
through Friday, September
G
Greg
Guest
imported post
Japanese Stocks Fall; Dollar Up Vs Yen
Monday September 26, 11:03 PM EDT
TOKYO (AP) — Japanese stocks fell Tuesday morning as traders sold shares of telecom giant Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp. to lock in profits following Monday's surge. The dollar was higher against the yen.
The Nikkei 225 index fell 37.32 points, or 0.28 percent, to 13,355.31 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to end morning trading. The index rose 1.77 percent to a fresh four-year high Monday.
The broader TOPIX, which includes all issues on the exchange's first section, rose 0,87 points, or 0.06 percent, to 1,383.69. The TOPIX rose 30.27 points, or 2.23 percent, the day before.
On Monday in New York, stocks fluctuated before closing modestly higher as oil prices neared $66 a barrel despite lower-than-expected damage estimates from Hurricane Rita.
The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 24.04, or 0.23 percent, to 10,443.63, and the Nasdaq composite index added 4.62, or 0.22 percent, to 2,121.46.
In currency trading, the dollar was trading at 112.66 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market at 11 a.m. Tuesday, up 0.14 yen from late Monday and above the 112.28 yen it bought in New York later that day.
The euro fell to $1.2039 from $1.2049 late Monday.
Japanese Stocks Fall; Dollar Up Vs Yen
Monday September 26, 11:03 PM EDT
TOKYO (AP) — Japanese stocks fell Tuesday morning as traders sold shares of telecom giant Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp. to lock in profits following Monday's surge. The dollar was higher against the yen.
The Nikkei 225 index fell 37.32 points, or 0.28 percent, to 13,355.31 points on the Tokyo Stock Exchange to end morning trading. The index rose 1.77 percent to a fresh four-year high Monday.
The broader TOPIX, which includes all issues on the exchange's first section, rose 0,87 points, or 0.06 percent, to 1,383.69. The TOPIX rose 30.27 points, or 2.23 percent, the day before.
On Monday in New York, stocks fluctuated before closing modestly higher as oil prices neared $66 a barrel despite lower-than-expected damage estimates from Hurricane Rita.
The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 24.04, or 0.23 percent, to 10,443.63, and the Nasdaq composite index added 4.62, or 0.22 percent, to 2,121.46.
In currency trading, the dollar was trading at 112.66 yen on the Tokyo foreign exchange market at 11 a.m. Tuesday, up 0.14 yen from late Monday and above the 112.28 yen it bought in New York later that day.
The euro fell to $1.2039 from $1.2049 late Monday.
Spaf
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
Ditto thatMM....my exact thoughts!!!!:^
Yep, get rid of them thar ponies, I spec I'd be camping out for a while until the wife gets a load off.....if them thar ponies ain't given a return, I spec I should seek investment advice somewhere......ya know anybody who knows better...??:%
For that matter, them houses aint doing ya much....can't really sell them unless you buy them later.....so what's the point in living in one....
o......sort of like them ponies, if you can't make money wit'em, they ain't the worth the grain they done ate....it really ain't the ponies either, its all that tack and stuffthat goes along with them Equine species....seems like if you come into someones life to be ridden, you should at least provide your own hardware to be operated wit....:i
I dunno how you feel about it, but them thar lumber pieces seem to be highly outpriced by any means....I remember my old grandpappy saying that if you working too hard to buy something, then make it yourself....that's back in thar depression days....they learnt how to do it themselves....thats where our ingenuity come from.....
Maybe them horses maybe worth something one day, they do have bloodlline, but right now how in the hell is my wife gonna make a herd with 3 mares.....:l....I tell ya, my wife is a blonde and I believe everything about them sayings about blonde women....it must be true because she married me!!!:x
:#
Ditto thatMM....my exact thoughts!!!!:^
Yep, get rid of them thar ponies, I spec I'd be camping out for a while until the wife gets a load off.....if them thar ponies ain't given a return, I spec I should seek investment advice somewhere......ya know anybody who knows better...??:%
For that matter, them houses aint doing ya much....can't really sell them unless you buy them later.....so what's the point in living in one....
o......sort of like them ponies, if you can't make money wit'em, they ain't the worth the grain they done ate....it really ain't the ponies either, its all that tack and stuffthat goes along with them Equine species....seems like if you come into someones life to be ridden, you should at least provide your own hardware to be operated wit....:iI dunno how you feel about it, but them thar lumber pieces seem to be highly outpriced by any means....I remember my old grandpappy saying that if you working too hard to buy something, then make it yourself....that's back in thar depression days....they learnt how to do it themselves....thats where our ingenuity come from.....
Maybe them horses maybe worth something one day, they do have bloodlline, but right now how in the hell is my wife gonna make a herd with 3 mares.....:l....I tell ya, my wife is a blonde and I believe everything about them sayings about blonde women....it must be true because she married me!!!:x
:#
Show-me
Well-known member
imported post
Dry lumber has went up 30% in my area. Treated went up more because of the new ways they have to treat it due to gov. regulations. No more, I believe, arsenic and they inject the lumber now with copper solution. Copper stops growth. Very expensive and it requires special nails or screws. With the large amount of copper in the wood it causes dissimilar metal corrosion and will corrode regular nails and screws in a few year.
Dry lumber has went up 30% in my area. Treated went up more because of the new ways they have to treat it due to gov. regulations. No more, I believe, arsenic and they inject the lumber now with copper solution. Copper stops growth. Very expensive and it requires special nails or screws. With the large amount of copper in the wood it causes dissimilar metal corrosion and will corrode regular nails and screws in a few year.
The_Technician
Active member
imported post
Hmm....could be one of them slip sliding away days here......got them same store sales figures coming out.....wonder if them are the same stores as last time......u know they gotta be......then they don't seem to know about them home sells.....have you ever heard of such......where are them home sells..... have you ever got a good deal on a home???
and then there is that thing call consuma confi-dence.....are you confident.....do youneed someone to tell you if your a confidentconsuma.....sounds likesomeone done convinced thegovernment to give'm a job.......:shock:
Wonder what my daughter would say if them horses left....:shock:
Wonder what the lumber will cost us if them home sells go off like they suppose to....:shock:
I know one thing, my wife, she don't like to do dishes, our dishwasher broke here lately and she got me doing the dishes.....I said honey, you need to go shopping for that new dishwasher that we need....so what does she do....she goes out and buys the most expensive stainless model there is.....after paying all that money, the people at the store had the guts to tell her it would be two weeks before it would be in.....now that service with a smile.....I'm waiting for service and they are smiling!!!
:dude:
Hmm....could be one of them slip sliding away days here......got them same store sales figures coming out.....wonder if them are the same stores as last time......u know they gotta be......then they don't seem to know about them home sells.....have you ever heard of such......where are them home sells..... have you ever got a good deal on a home???
and then there is that thing call consuma confi-dence.....are you confident.....do youneed someone to tell you if your a confidentconsuma.....sounds likesomeone done convinced thegovernment to give'm a job.......:shock:
Wonder what my daughter would say if them horses left....:shock:
Wonder what the lumber will cost us if them home sells go off like they suppose to....:shock:
I know one thing, my wife, she don't like to do dishes, our dishwasher broke here lately and she got me doing the dishes.....I said honey, you need to go shopping for that new dishwasher that we need....so what does she do....she goes out and buys the most expensive stainless model there is.....after paying all that money, the people at the store had the guts to tell her it would be two weeks before it would be in.....now that service with a smile.....I'm waiting for service and they are smiling!!!
:dude:
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