Stocks opened lower on Tuesday after a couple headlines that probably weren't surprising, but we were hoping they could be avoided. That was of course the longshoreman strike, and the Iranian missile strike on Israel. The indices closed off their early lows but stiff suffered some stiff losses with small caps and tech stocks lagging. Bonds were up as yields moved lower.
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Bond yields were down after the ISM Manufacturing Index came in weaker than expected. The JOLTS report showed more job openings in August than expected, but that's rear-view mirror data.
Nike was down sharply after reporting earnings after the bell yesterday and, being a Dow component, it should weigh on the Dow today.
According to the White House, Iran's missile attack was "defeated and ineffective." So, is that it? Turn the page?
The price of oil spike up to $72 a barrel before backing down again, but technically that's something it may have been looking to do at some point as it continues to knock on that descending resistance line and the 50-day EMA. So, if the attack in the Middle East is over for now, we could see the price decline resume. Demand may be decreasing with the expectation of a slowing labor market, and that may keep the price of oil below 80, which is just fine with Wall Street.
The dollar probably rallied more on the longshoreman strike as it could have the effect of raising prices and increasing inflation as the supply chains get a roadblock, although the reason the dollar rises during inflation is because interest rates are usually rising. That isn't happening, but it could if inflation changes direction. It will be interesting to see if UUP can get above that resistance area between 28.3 and 28.4.
Nvidia and Microsoft were big losers again yesterday and their charts are looking potentially vulnerable, but not dead yet. I'm actually optimistic for the market after perhaps a little backing and filling first, so I would be surprised if either of these breakdown, but the charts suggest it's possible. I'll probably be interested in nibbling on Nvidia if it fell near 110, but with a tight stop, for a test.

We'll get the September Jobs Report on Friday. Estimates are looking for a gain of 120K to 135K jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.
Admin Note: In the coming weeks we may be working on a server and software upgrade that could disrupt the website periodically. It's something I am not looking forward to, but I've procrastinated long enough and it's time to get it done. The maintenance could take part or all of the website down at times, but it will not impact Premium Service email and text alerts. I'll keep you posted.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) pulled back from the recent highs, and the test of the prior high is normal action. It just took a couple of bearish headlines to help it do that in this recent bullish activity. The breakdown from the F-flag is not usually a one day event, but there is more support below. The gap from September 19 is still open, while the one on the S-fund chart did get filled.
As mentioned, the DWCPF (S-fund) did fill that gap from Sep. 19, but it held as the bottom of that gap yesterday, and that happens to be where the 20-day EMA is also crossing. So there is a case to be made that the dip has been satisfied, but there is another open gap below near 2075, so...
EFA was down 0.75%, ACWX was down 0.19%, and the "ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index" was down 0.36%. ACWX was almost right on for Monday's I-fund returns so I will stick with that for now as the proxy for the I-fund. You can see the final daily price and return posted on our site each evening.
BND (F-fund) continues to test and hold at the 20-day EMA. This looks bullish and will continue higher as long as the 10-year yield stays below 3.9%.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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Bond yields were down after the ISM Manufacturing Index came in weaker than expected. The JOLTS report showed more job openings in August than expected, but that's rear-view mirror data.
Nike was down sharply after reporting earnings after the bell yesterday and, being a Dow component, it should weigh on the Dow today.
According to the White House, Iran's missile attack was "defeated and ineffective." So, is that it? Turn the page?
The price of oil spike up to $72 a barrel before backing down again, but technically that's something it may have been looking to do at some point as it continues to knock on that descending resistance line and the 50-day EMA. So, if the attack in the Middle East is over for now, we could see the price decline resume. Demand may be decreasing with the expectation of a slowing labor market, and that may keep the price of oil below 80, which is just fine with Wall Street.

The dollar probably rallied more on the longshoreman strike as it could have the effect of raising prices and increasing inflation as the supply chains get a roadblock, although the reason the dollar rises during inflation is because interest rates are usually rising. That isn't happening, but it could if inflation changes direction. It will be interesting to see if UUP can get above that resistance area between 28.3 and 28.4.

Nvidia and Microsoft were big losers again yesterday and their charts are looking potentially vulnerable, but not dead yet. I'm actually optimistic for the market after perhaps a little backing and filling first, so I would be surprised if either of these breakdown, but the charts suggest it's possible. I'll probably be interested in nibbling on Nvidia if it fell near 110, but with a tight stop, for a test.

We'll get the September Jobs Report on Friday. Estimates are looking for a gain of 120K to 135K jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.
Admin Note: In the coming weeks we may be working on a server and software upgrade that could disrupt the website periodically. It's something I am not looking forward to, but I've procrastinated long enough and it's time to get it done. The maintenance could take part or all of the website down at times, but it will not impact Premium Service email and text alerts. I'll keep you posted.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) pulled back from the recent highs, and the test of the prior high is normal action. It just took a couple of bearish headlines to help it do that in this recent bullish activity. The breakdown from the F-flag is not usually a one day event, but there is more support below. The gap from September 19 is still open, while the one on the S-fund chart did get filled.

As mentioned, the DWCPF (S-fund) did fill that gap from Sep. 19, but it held as the bottom of that gap yesterday, and that happens to be where the 20-day EMA is also crossing. So there is a case to be made that the dip has been satisfied, but there is another open gap below near 2075, so...

EFA was down 0.75%, ACWX was down 0.19%, and the "ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index" was down 0.36%. ACWX was almost right on for Monday's I-fund returns so I will stick with that for now as the proxy for the I-fund. You can see the final daily price and return posted on our site each evening.

BND (F-fund) continues to test and hold at the 20-day EMA. This looks bullish and will continue higher as long as the 10-year yield stays below 3.9%.

Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.