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marketeye712.gif
 
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oil should top st at 64-67 range then tank back to the low to mid 50's. (this will spark things up bigtime)

C fund should see the most upward momentum thru the EOY.....JMHO:cool:
 
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I thought it would be important to note that the Accumlation only increased a little over 0.75% from yesterdays increase....if you remember it has only recovered approx 80% of the loss since Jun 2005....so its appears that the impulsive buying is not there to support a sufficient advance with some power behind it.....

Could be if this keeps up that we will get a sudden drop one day sooner or later.....when is gas going up again......

:dude:
 
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The Technician wrote:
Could be if this keeps up that we will get a sudden drop one day sooner or later.....when is gas going up again......

:dude:
Click to expand...
As hot as it is, and with the changing gas prices. The gas station up the street had to hire extra help...So employment should be up!
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date July 13, 2005, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: More market data due tomorrow!

Elsewhere: Hearing that the oil barges are still pumping.



Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1223.29, up +1.08
CMF (money flow) at 0.057, up
RSI (strength) at 63.5, up
MACD (trend) at 5.67, up, and bullish

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closed at 60.01, dn -0.61

Tea Leaves: Yellow (Caution): oil


Yak.

Remarks: Oil on edge of panic range (>60).
Holding: 100%G.
S&P Stops: Alert: 1211 Trail: 1199
 
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I'll give you the best indicator of market direction yet.

I moved yesterday fully into stocks. I'm in C, S and I fund with everything I own.

A sure bet that stocks will go down.

Want to be a winner?

Be a contrarian to whatever I do, because it will make you the money that I lose.

Guaaruunnnteed!
 
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I know the feeling James. Sometimes we can't miss. Other times we can't pick the winner of a one horse race. I'm not sure I like your move at this point but I just saw my horse heading toward the glue factory.
 
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James Wrote:

I moved yesterday fully into stocks. I'm in C, S and I fund with everything I own.

A sure bet that stocks will go down.
Click to expand...

The support level continues to move up, and the downside risks decrease. At some point Birchtree is correct, and the 1190's are history.... Could be a very good play James.....

Since the SPX has overcome its overhead resistance, the resistance now becomes support and upon completion of this consolidation, it is likely that the SPX will go and challenge the March high.

I'm hoping for some kind of pullback this month, but the 1175 range is slipping away........ Maybe a littlemore consolidaition before the 1230 level is broken thru..... The question is no longer if, but when we make new highs.... I'm starting to think soon............. Still grazing
 
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James48843,

I would like to honor your request to use you as a contrary indicator - however the esteemed choice has already been chosen - it's a green frog. You should do well in your current positioning. Besides, I need and plan to make a whole lot more money than you might lose.

Robo,

The point when Birchtree is correct is when the sp500 reaches 1700 on the index. No credit can be accepted with good conscience until then Amigo. I ain't planning on breaking no legs on this run. This move could be classic - everyone is concentrating on the real estate play - not watching the dead equity market. The bull generally wants to take as few riders as possible on the way up - by the time public attention starts to refocus on the markets we could be several thousands of points higher on the Dow. Keep it a secret as long as possible.
 
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Some comments from Bryan Perry.....Many still think a pullback is coming, but the final result is up............. S&P 1300 conservative number.


From what I can tell by looking at the one-year charts of the three major indexes, it appears as if the investors are “buying on the rumor” (expected upside earnings surprises) and will be “selling on the news” (the actual posting of Q2 earnings) when it is reported. This is a classic stock market scenario. Sentiment indicators are again wildly bullish as we approach the March highs and therefore I would recommend being cautious about paying up for stocks that have already made 10%-15% runs. There are fewer more frustrating things in life than buying a high P/E stock at its top.


That said, the bulls definitely have the momo on their side, but I suspect we will get another opportunity to buy the market’s leaders on a decent sized pullback. On a very short-term basis I expect the market to “hit the wall” at Dow 10,700, S&P 1,230 and Nasdaq 2,150, where the tech-heavy index broke down badly last January.

But once the market does do some back and filling, I predict we will see the S&P 500 head up to 1,300 or higher before the end of the year. So show some discipline. Don’t chase stocks after big moves. Be patient and buy the dips. They will come. I can promise you that.

Many of us are waiting on this dip!!!!!!!!!! Getting harder and harder to be patient.......


Still Grazing............
 
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Well I tried a move 2 days ago when the indicators were up and oil was declining. Wrong!........The very next day oil was back up. Sorry about that victorman, I thought I saw something that wasen't to be! So I slipped back in the G-fund.

Tom this ain't a one horse race......Its a lubed up pig race.

Folks are telling me that the 2nd half of the year should be good, not great, but good, and in August we should see the market as moderately bullish.

Rgds! :) Spaf
 
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Looks like the Bush tax plan is working....lower tax rates, higher tax revenues.....strange, that is the way the great economy we use to have worked.....no reason not to work that way again.....maybe the overseas economies wanted ours so they pushed and pushed raising taxes thru various avenues here(overseas invested interest in the US encouraged it and are now discouraging the tax plan).....not to mention a slip in our social structure to go with it......sort of has shadows of the communist takeover of the US in the cold war period.....

Al Quaeda is still having plans go thru....the London terrorist attack I believed was thru aPakistan avenuefromAl Q,is starting to show in the news as more than likely..........

Expecting a good market for the time being......wouldn't alarmme if we break 1229 level for a short period, but I'm not putting my money on it......looking for a break down as I mentioned in Sept Oct timeframe.....

If we continue bringing home business, we could see foreign economies sinking and a good US market....but this takes time for a stable environment....a couple of years isn't too fast.....China is the wild card....

:dude:
 
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Looks like the market is positioned for a great day. Good info abounds. Just might be the point where the rest of the herd will start jumping in. Its been a great 2 1/2 month ride for some and the lust to take some profits is probably close at hand. For example, look how far the S fund has come since its $13.63 a share price on Apr 28. Patience has rewarded some greatly. I do think that its the 9th inning and now some have heard what a great game it has been and will be rushing to get in, just as the smart ones who have enjoyed the whole game are leaving so they won't get caught in therush to the exits by the masses. But you never know this game may go into extra innings. Dow 11,200 soon????



http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/050712/12732.html
 
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Goldilocks you sure are looking good, how about cooking something up with me. I see inflation is in check, retail sales are up for June. Futures got me nervous in a good way. Technician, I'd be careful of the venturi effect - you may get pulled in.
 
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Birchtree wrote:
Goldilocks you sure are looking good, how about cooking something up with me. I see inflation is in check, retail sales are up for June. Futures got me nervous in a good way. Technician, I'd be careful of the venturi effect - you may get pulled in.
Click to expand...
Birchtree, you are the man! Rock solid, unmoveable by the mass of fear that abounded. You stuck to your guns and continue to do so. Stay humble and enjoy yourjustly earn reward.:^ P.S. When you start hearing the trumpets and therejoicing about the market, that is the time to watch out.
 
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Awesome picture Tekx$.....just awesome...ROLOL!!!!:l

You know, I have a bottom line thats beenclimbing for two days now....I have been expecting something to happen, this jump wasn't out of consideration, just couldn't confirm it....the question now is..... is the lower 1180's is a possiblity from here.....will the market sell on the euphoria.....????

Wonder where they got the monkey.....uncanny how he resembles Greenspud....:^

:dude:
 
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