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I see u pulling out of the S fund today Tekx$

I guess the rally is over......

Better watch your pockets Birch!!!!
 
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I see the S&P volume is about 40-50% higher than normal....must be time to get outta there Birch....my impulse curves haven't really made any impressive numbers this morning even with the high volume......accumulation still isn't cllimbing ....

It looks like a title mark made without any power behind it this morning.....means the market run is at its end...for now.....

Waiting for a safe bottom ......:^
 
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The Technician wrote:
I see u pulling out of the S fund today Tekx$

I guess the rally is over......

Better watch your pockets Birch!!!!
naaahh....big caps should follow whatwe have seen in the s over the last year.

it's time for the c 2 shine:^

tekno

you never comment on the 29-40 dow similarity....Why?
 
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Similarity......500 is less than 5000.....different quality......not trying to pick its trend....should I mentioned anything else....??

:dude:
 
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What do you think, Technician are we looking at the bottom of the F fund?

What a beautiful picture. I hope the break out holds.

big.chart
 
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Seems to be ....I'm in ...Mikes been in for a few days earlier...

I left some comments in the F Fund thread....

I was hoping that I could time it better than I did by getting in a couple of days ago.....I think we could get a 1% increase here soon.....then it would probably be time to get out....I noticed the F fund will dive a month before the market.....so I figured we had till Sept.......wish it would come on, I'd like to catch the G fund also on 18 or 19th.....

After next week somewhere around the 22nd, I think I'm going to try the C or S funds for a short rebound....depends on if and how it drops........

I'm still leary of the Sept Oct breakdown.....this is a major point in time for the market....not like around May ...it was a minor point....its a very very very risky time to be in the market......this new mark that was made this morning may move the break down some.....I'm sitll going to be cautious through Sept in any case.....

Dang thing looks so much like 2000.....same months.......uncanny similar!!!!

:dude:
 
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Break-out or Fake-out!!!!

The S&P just hit 1230 and pulled back…..Is this it? A new 4 year high is possible.

Some comments from a Tech….


The S&P is challenging its former high and has moved slightly beyond it. Prices have entered the second projection zone of 1229-1241, but in an overbought condition.There are some indications that the first attempt at going through will fail. The hourly A/D is showing negative divergence and the hourly BSP index has not beenable to getout of the down trend it started a few days ago. It needs to show that a new wave of buying is coming to push prices higher, and this should come within the next two hours.



Is it bye-bye to the 1190’s ????? Hummmmmmmmmmmm....
 
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U know someone not long ago ask what do I look at when I analyze the market......

I'll give you a taste of it.....

St. Dev -peaked out on top....due to come down

multiple stochs -peaked to the max.....all due to come down

Accumulation -peaked in June......lack of setting new acc highs of late even though the market is higher.

impulsive rates -not impressed, no power of late except to the downside.

Various other factors have a steering current, some elliott wave considerations, human nature etc....golden rule ....

Other Immediate considerations

the economic factors -yeah we have some sales, but we don't have the base for making a great rebounding economy....alll things require a good base....failure is due........changes to the base will be made to change the economic direction.

economic cycle -wrong time for a market rebound, it will be a couple of years from now.....

Guess that'a alot of it...

:dude:
 
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Why is everybody always pickin on me? Technician, I certainly appreciate your arduous comments, but not for the reasons you might think. From my selfish renegade contrarian perspective we (you) need to keep as many folks off this train as possible. That is just the rule of a new bull market leg. The venturi effect will start to bring in more participants at higher levels to keep the momentum in tact.

This morning there is a considerable amount of internal profit taking going on, so things perhaps won't open up until after 1400 hours. At least my (our) friends sitting in the G fund shelter won't be subjected to the initial vagaries of this move which may develope some extreme volatility. Are you looking at the 8 year down cycle for Sept/Oct? I actually in preperation for my own profit potential went out and bought some larger pants with deeper pockets to hold everything. Tomorrow will tell the story once everyone is aware of this fine opportunity.

Teknobucks - been looking at the Dow from 1929 - 1939. The 1929 bubble peak was at 381.17 - the bottom in 1932 was under 50. From there on it's golden. I still prefer the move from 1995 to 2000. So why is everybody pickin on me?
 
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Not pickin on ya Birch...just teasing a little or helping you keep your $$$$...

Can't compare the Dow of then to today....and then can't compare it to S&P 500.....maybe a faint relation to the Wilshire......but its not the same as then....stick with the most recent to make a fair comparison....

Still Accum is off......its either go soon up or go soon down......figuring on the profit taken this morning...it will be go soon down!!!!
:dude:
 
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Interesting note about the S fund. The last three consecutive down days was back in April 26 ( 13.84 ), Apr 27 ( 13.83 ), Apr 28 ( 13.63 ). Since then, it has never went more than two down days in a row, Not counting Jun 24 & Jun 27, same price 14.85, before the S Fund would resume its climb. That's what you call a great up trend.
 
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The Technician wrote:
Similarity......500 is less than 5000.....different quality......not trying to pick its trend....should I mentioned anything else....??

:dude:
yeah u should.....since history is repeating itself!;)

why is it a almost mirror image to .82 dev?????:shock:
 
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Birchtree wrote:
Why is everybody always pickin on me?
NOT ME!:xhell i agree with ya on the C fund fwiw!
Teknobucks - been looking at the Dow from 1929 - 1939. The 1929 bubble peak was at 381.17 - the bottom in 1932 was under 50. From there on it's golden. I still prefer the move from 1995 to 2000.


sure has been golden for my stoxthe last year bro!:cool:

we rally thru EOY with two dips remainder of year....in 2007 we will be back to this point where the markets are now. i'm banking on it!

tekno's ho....:cool:

 
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very good quote off TT:;)

I hear everyone always talk about volume, and how low volume on up days is a bad thing...blah, blah, blah. What I don't hear people talking about is how much volume is takes to move a stock or index a certain amount.

Did anyone who read about Jesse Livermore ever wonder what his tape reading was all about? How in the heck did he know what the path of least resistance was way back in the early 1900's using ticker tape where all you see is price and volume? There was no Elliot Wave, MACD, RSI, or genetic algorithms.

I have to take an educated guess that he figured out that when it's tough to bring a stock down (meaning the change in price / volume is lower than average), but it's easy to take a stock up (change in price / volume is higher than average), the path of least resistance is up.
 
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Tekx$....I believe he could sense the power of the buying.....like I have mentioned lately....this mornings trading on the S&P was weak....even though they have great numbers....if you, a miniscule trader, try to trade in or out at this time your trade could easily be pushed aside until larger traders get their fill....its sort of like horses at a trough.....you get whats left, and by that time, it isn't what you wanted.....watch out if it drops....by the time you get traded, you could be eating the dirt that the high grass was growing in!!!!:shock:

Also recently, I see they have been touting stop lossesand such instruments for an individual trader to have.....do you realize they could read all the stop losses made on a certain stock if they wanted to ........its a great tool for others to take your stock or sell stock to you right before it moves the other way............I never register stop losses or others trade intentionsuntil right before I need them.....I find it criminal.....and when it come up at this time, I wonder about the health of the market when I see that kind of suggestion come up.....:^

Same thing about this board, if someone wants to know how you trade, they would get you to tell them....which alot of people do onboards like this one....it could be detrimental if the wrong people are watching your moves.....

Birch, I hope you put away some cash today.....

:dude:
 
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