Market Talk

Spaf

Honorary Hall of Fame Member
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The Kingdom of TSP

Sunday-Weekly
(Early Edition)

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves, & Yak Date: July 10, 2005


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Busy week planned for Horseman Earnie. Report Cards due!

Other News: -> http://www.briefing.com/SilverIndex.htm


Doodles, and Tea Leaves - Weekly.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1211.86, up +17.42
CMF (money flow) at -0.013, up +0.101
RSI (strength) at 58.2, up +10.3
MACD (trend) at 2.19, up +0.45 (bearish)

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closed at 59.63, up +0.88

Insert: S&P (3mo) chart ending 07-08. Added: 20dMA P-SAR, RSI, and MACD.


Tea leaves: Yellow / Green


Yak.

Remarks: Indicators turning favorable. Continuation could change the MACD tobullish.Caution, oil remains in worry range.

Holding: 100% G. May go to stocks if fundamentals and indicators hold.

S&P stops: Primary = 1188 (-24), Alert = 1200 (-12).

Oil factor: <55 = OK. 55-60 = worry. >60 = Panic.

Weekly TSP Returns: G= +.01, F= -.02, C= +.19, S= +.36, I= +.03


Rgds :) Spaf

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Futures are looking rather impressive for Monday. But Dennis may rain on the parade. At least my HD stock should benefit!:P
 
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Rod wrote:
Futures are looking rather impressive for Monday. But Dennis may rain on the parade. At least my HD stock should benefit!:P
keep the folks in the pensacola/mobile area in your thoughts and prayers....this storm is gonna be a monster:s

hopefully the loss of life will be minimal. those who have chosen to stay will find a situation as terrible as it gets on this planet. GOD help them....

the destruction of property will be on the scale of a hydrogen bomb and may very well affect the market next week. my gut feel is thatthe up trend will continue and may in fact recieve a boost from the anticipated spendingto rebuild the gulf coast.

the rigs in the gulf are also a variable 2 factor in...most allare west of the track which puts them on the softer side of the cyclone.

tekno
 
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We are at the high end of the trading range next week. Can we climb the wall of worry andbreak out?

Investors are still worried about the following:

We're still stuck in a trading range,$60 a barrel oil, the Fed is still in tightening mode, the yield curve, trading range long in the tooth.....and Dennis. I'm still bullish, I voted bearishnext week, but in my opinion the support holds on any pullbacks.



TSP Poll seems most are Bearish or Neutral......
 
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Tekno, Glad to see you are here - means you're safe!
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Hoping you see the Sun soon!
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for now! From all of us >
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teknobucks wrote:
form your own conclusions......:^
So far the way they are handling the hurricane season this year, seems to be a lot better than in the past. Thats just the impression that I seem to hear!
 
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Since I voted bearish on sentiment, the market will probably go up 10% this week. :P

Looks like we are no longer matching 1994 on the chart. I'm now contemplating ~1190 as the entry point and playing this as a trading range with a trailing stop instead of expecting a big move one way or the other.

If $60+ oil can't kick the market in the shins and send it into the 1170's, I really don't know what else can. It's puzzling that the C fund continues lagging well behind the other two. Large caps are long overdue to take hold and lead the way. :%
 
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Mike wrote:
Looks like we are no longer matching 1994 on the chart.



1934;)

however:


Does Intel win with technology -- or threats?
by Bill Fleckenstein
July 11, 2005
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P121537.asp

Explaining isn't Justifying
by John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
July 11, 2005
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc050711.htm

Are There Too Many Hedge Funds?
by John Mauldin
July 9, 2005
http://www.safehaven.com/article-3406.htm

Global: Back to the Drawing Board
by Stephen Roach
July 8, 2005
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

The Destruction of Old and Creation of New Bubbles!
by Dr. Marc Faber
July 5, 2005
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/marketcoms/mcdownloads/050705.pdf
 
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Almost totally agree with you Mike...that 1190 level sure looks inviting....I'm still cautions of the future break down that I believe is coming right after the 1st of Sept throught Oct......gonna really sit that one out...

This week we have several items of interest that will affect the market.

Store sales, bill and note autions announcements, CPI/PPI, import and export prices international trade, petroleum status, treasury budget, jobless claims, retail sales, business inventories, industrial production, and consumer sentiment.....

yeap, gonna be an interesting week.....F fund looks like its getting there....could be a good move after the G fund flips one to us this week...

:dude:
 
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We have a continuation gap this morning which usually indicates that the trend to advance is somewhat strong. I am sort of taking this as a signal that a current trade to stocks remains viable. However, with some degree of caution, being aggressive is not my passion. Will probably go 40% stocks and leave a buffer of 60% in the G-fund.

Caution: the continuation gaps can turn into exhaustion gaps, at the end of a strong trend.

Rgds, and be careful! :) Spaf
 
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3-Month Bill Treasury Rate 3.135 %

The high rate for the weekly 3-month bill auction slipped 1.0 basis point to 3.135%. The rate on the 3-month bill typically holds near the overnight federal funds rate which is currently 3.25%.


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chart.gif

The 3-month bill rate is usually similar to the federal funds rate target; often when bond investors expect a rising rate environment, it is higher than the funds rate, but when investors expect rates to decline, it will be lower than the funds rate target. The 3-month bill rate depicted in this chart represents the high discount rate from the Treasury's weekly auction on Mondays. It only represents one moment in time, and is not an average of daily numbers. The date on the chart is associated with the issue (or settlement) date of the Treasury security, which is on the Thursday of the week that the security is auctioned. Our grid tables show the auction date of the security, which is usually on Mondays.
 
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6-Month Bill Treasury Rate



3.355 %




class=econo-sectiontitleHighlights
The high rate for the weekly 6-month bill auction rose 3.0 basis points in the week to 3.355%. The rate on the 6-month bill typically holds above the overnight federal funds rate which is currently 3.25%.


class=econo-sectiontitleTrends




grid.gif




chart.gif

class=econo-chartcaptionThe 6-month bill rate is usually similar to the federal funds rate target; often when bond investors expect a rising rate environment, it is higher than the funds rate, but when investors expect rates to decline, it will be lower than the funds rate target. The 6-month bill rate depicted in this chart represents the high discount rate from the Treasury's weekly auction on Mondays. It only represents one moment in time, and is not an average of daily numbers. The date on the chart is associated with the issue (or settlement) date of the Treasury security, which is on the Thursday of the week that the security is auctioned. Our grid tables show the auction date of the security, which is usually on Mondays.
 
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I'm kinda looking at the import pricesspiking given oil influence coming up Wed......

Also given that the overseas economies are dropping I'd expect the International trade deficit should be dropping.....

A mixed signal but signs of changing times.....right now we have to worry about the consumer being able to consume.....

:dude:
 
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Tom I read your comments and you have good reason to speculate the market...

This current rebound isn't surmounting to much according to my accumulation curve...its seems that the most accumulation of late peaked in June....unless we get some sort of surge I doubt we will see any significant change for the next several months.....which leads us to the end of year....its bound to be affected by low spending for Christmas.....that alone is gonna seal the end of the current rise in market.....

:dude:
 
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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date July 11,2005, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Vestors Optimistic! Market buyers get deals and wheels. Horsemen Earnie and Krude reported on diet of Pepto-Bismol.

Elsewhere: Coastal folks reported that all barges were accounted for!


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1219.44, up +7.58
CMF (money flow) at 0.024, up
RSI (strength) at 61.7, up
MACD (trend) at 3.49, up, and bullish

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closed at 58.92, dn -0.71

Tea Leaves: Green


Yak.

Remarks: Transfer 60/40
S&P stops: Alert: 1207 Trail: 1195
 
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Soon to test the high's of the S&P..... If we get thru the 1220's, 1230 to 1250 is possible..... But the question is, do we consolidate backto the 1190's again before we test the 1230's??? If we do I will join Spaf with around 40%... For those staying long good call so far......;)
 
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