10/24/25
Stocks rebounded on Thursday and the indices are back flirting with the recent highs, but they have continued to stall before breaking out. Inflation data and / or earnings could be the make or break catalyst going forward as the bulls and bears battle it out for position before the next big move. Small caps led on the upside, yields were up, and the 10-year Treasury Yield is back at 4%.
Intel was up 8% after hours yesterday after reporting earnings. What does this mean for today? Probably not a whole lot. Yesterday we were talking about Tesla and IBM being down sharply after hours on their earnings, but Tesla ended yesterday up nicely, and IBM nearly got back to even after being down 6% before the market opened, so the dip buyers showed up again.
An 8% gain in Intel after hours should put the wind at the backs of the indices, but we can't count on it.
The 10-year Treasury Yield moved higher and was over 4% again in late trading but it did close just below it at 3.99%. Again, the level is fine, not too low, but stabilization is what the stock market wants to see here. Based on the recent trend, it has some work to do to recapture 4%. 4.2% was the prior roadblock.
The dollar (UUP) was up slightly but you can see that the red 200-day MA is still holding it back.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) continued its back and forth, finding resistance at the recent highs, but also finding support at the rising trendline and moving averages. The CPI report today and / or next week's Magnificent 7 earnings could break the stalemate, although the trend had been intact for a long time so the bulls have a perceived advantage.
The Dow Transportation Index was up to its old tricks again - or down to them, I should say. This can't seem to get out of its own way. Every time it makes a move that looks favorable, something smacks it back down. Yesterday it was a sharp spike in the price of oil that sent the airlines stocks falling, so here it is back below its 50-day average and depending on what happens to the price of oil today, challenging its 200-day average again.
Oil spiked on the news of the Trump administration putting more sanctions on the large Russian oil companies. However, you can see the gain yesterday ran right into the 50-day average so it may have a tougher time moving higher from here.
We are supposed to get the September CPI data today, after being cancelled last week. It's been a while since we had an inflation related report.
DWCPF Index (S-Fund) continues to hold up at key levels, but it is still failing to breakout to a new closing high. The apex between support and resistance is narrowing so we could have an answer very soon. As I said above while looking at the S&P 500 chart, today's CPI and / or the Magnificent 7 earnings next week may be the catalyst on the next direction.
ACWX (I-fund) continues to trade well and it is hovering near the all time highs, even with the dollar (UUP) on the brink of a possible breakout above that 200-day MA. Those in the I-fund would prefer to NOT see UUP above 28 any time soon.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down with the 10-year moving back to 4%. There is room for a pullback here but the trend remains bullish for bonds.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rebounded on Thursday and the indices are back flirting with the recent highs, but they have continued to stall before breaking out. Inflation data and / or earnings could be the make or break catalyst going forward as the bulls and bears battle it out for position before the next big move. Small caps led on the upside, yields were up, and the 10-year Treasury Yield is back at 4%.
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Intel was up 8% after hours yesterday after reporting earnings. What does this mean for today? Probably not a whole lot. Yesterday we were talking about Tesla and IBM being down sharply after hours on their earnings, but Tesla ended yesterday up nicely, and IBM nearly got back to even after being down 6% before the market opened, so the dip buyers showed up again.
An 8% gain in Intel after hours should put the wind at the backs of the indices, but we can't count on it.
The 10-year Treasury Yield moved higher and was over 4% again in late trading but it did close just below it at 3.99%. Again, the level is fine, not too low, but stabilization is what the stock market wants to see here. Based on the recent trend, it has some work to do to recapture 4%. 4.2% was the prior roadblock.
The dollar (UUP) was up slightly but you can see that the red 200-day MA is still holding it back.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) continued its back and forth, finding resistance at the recent highs, but also finding support at the rising trendline and moving averages. The CPI report today and / or next week's Magnificent 7 earnings could break the stalemate, although the trend had been intact for a long time so the bulls have a perceived advantage.
The Dow Transportation Index was up to its old tricks again - or down to them, I should say. This can't seem to get out of its own way. Every time it makes a move that looks favorable, something smacks it back down. Yesterday it was a sharp spike in the price of oil that sent the airlines stocks falling, so here it is back below its 50-day average and depending on what happens to the price of oil today, challenging its 200-day average again.
Oil spiked on the news of the Trump administration putting more sanctions on the large Russian oil companies. However, you can see the gain yesterday ran right into the 50-day average so it may have a tougher time moving higher from here.
We are supposed to get the September CPI data today, after being cancelled last week. It's been a while since we had an inflation related report.
DWCPF Index (S-Fund) continues to hold up at key levels, but it is still failing to breakout to a new closing high. The apex between support and resistance is narrowing so we could have an answer very soon. As I said above while looking at the S&P 500 chart, today's CPI and / or the Magnificent 7 earnings next week may be the catalyst on the next direction.
ACWX (I-fund) continues to trade well and it is hovering near the all time highs, even with the dollar (UUP) on the brink of a possible breakout above that 200-day MA. Those in the I-fund would prefer to NOT see UUP above 28 any time soon.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down with the 10-year moving back to 4%. There is room for a pullback here but the trend remains bullish for bonds.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
