Market Talk

[The_Technician]

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High fuel prices affect consumer confidence in July...

Same store sales might be negative due to fuel....by end of month of July....

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=568&e=5&u=/nm/20050712/
bs_nm/economy_consumers_ibd_dc_2

:dude:

 

[vectorman]

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As I have mentioned in previous posts, the funds seem to follow the some trend, butone fund may not move as quickly or higher than anotherfund; ie the S fund doing much better than the I fund.I have noticed looking back at the charts for the C, I and S funds, that if two areclimbing higher or going down, its only a matter of time before the other fund switches direction and follows the upward or downward trend that the other two funds are following. Just an observation, but if you time it right it may net you some extra change.

 

[mlk_man]

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Wonder Woman wrote:

Technician,
I've been monitoring and reporting on the weekly Key Economic Indicators for this board. You point out two additional indicators that are due out today, the Canadian interest rate and the Redbook. Would you have any idea why the Redbook is not listed in this week's list of indicators as outlined on Briefing.com? I understand the Canadian interest rate is an International indicator and I'm not monitoring those at this time (the International indicator list is very long). However, as you explained the Redbook's Consumer Spending seems to be significant.
Any suggestions are appreciated.

Since he won't come out and tell ya where to find it, guess he wants to look important :shock:, you can find it here: http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Your welcome,

M_M

 

[mlk_man]

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BTW, it's much easier to read this way then when posted here...................:^

 

[The_Technician]

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Gee,I look important.....hmmmm thats a complement!!!


U been holding back on us MM????


Here is the 4 week treasury, notice the reference to the Fed Funds rate...



[align=left]
class=econo-sectiontitleDefinition
Treasury bills are sold at public auctions every week. The competitive bids at these auctions determine the interest rate paid on each issue. More than 20 primary dealers, securities dealers who are authorized and obligated to submit competitive tenders at Treasury auctions, do the competitive bidding. Dealers can hold them, resell them to their clients or trade them with other securities firms. Since these are public auctions, the Treasury must announce the size, date and time of the auction every week. Four-week bills are announced on Monday for auction on Tuesday.

[align=left]



class=econo-sectiontitleHighlights
The high rate for the Treasury's 4-week bill auction fell 4.0 basis points to 2.960%. The rate on the bill typically holds below the federal funds rate, which is currently 3.25%. [/align]

class=econo-sectiontitleTrends

class=econo-chartcaptionThe 4-week note was instituted to replace the necessity for sporadic cash management bills. This weekly auction is more predictable for investors. Predictability in the Treasury market is a highly rate feature that promotes demand for these bills. The 4-week bill rate depicted in this chart represents the high discount rate from the Treasury's weekly auction on Tuesdays. It only represents one moment in time, and is not an average of daily numbers. The date on the chart is associated with the issue (or settlement) date of the Treasury security, which is on the Thursday of the week that the security is auctioned. Our grid tables show the auction date of the security, which is usually on Tuesdays.[/align]

 

[The_Technician]

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Canadian interest rate increase nulled until future.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=aXLiVpPuoFHY

 

[Guest]

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mlk_man wrote:

you can find it here: http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Thank you mlk_man. I'm going to try and incorporate the extra items that the NASDAQ site has and Briefing.com doesn't on my daily updates - give it a try anyhow and see how it turns out - probably just the links as you suggest, to serve as a reminder.

PS
Technician, Will this be a duplicate of what you do? There's so much info it's hard for me to figure out. Spaf, what you think?

 

[The_Technician]

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Have at it WW....I'll be at ease now.....actually DMA led me onto the site....its been great info....miss the old boy......Hey DMA, you out there somewhere.........????

I think he left federal service and no longer has TSP...at least thats what he told me.....

Market action today was in the positive....but the disturbing fact is the Accumulation is only up to 80% of its high on or about 20 Jun from the low of 6 Jul....with a day like today, you would like to see the Accumulation set new highs......:^

We could still see additional accumulation for the rest of the week....but its going to have to pick it up....

I hope the F fund closed down today.....so that those who got in it like I have today may have thatincrease coming tomorrow.....and the next few days after....

Another day, another dollar, just in time for someone to holler.....:l so sic!!!

:dude:

 

[ou81200]

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Does anyone know what the share prices are for today???

I'm getting that same message that was posted yesterday

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date July 12, 2005, Closing


Market News.

Kingdom Talk: Krude rides on stormy news! Lube was up on fears of more storms for the waters. Several Barges reported to be shutdown.


Doodles and Tea Leaves - Daily.

Doodles:
S&P 500 (Index)
Closed at 1222.21, up +2.77
CMF (money flow) at 0.033, up
RSI (strength) at 63.0, up
MACD (trend) at 4.70, up, and bullish

Nymex (Crude oil)
Closed at 60.62, up 1.70

Tea Leaves: Yellow (Caution): oil


Yak.

Remarks: Oil in panic range
Holding: 60/40
S&P stops: Alert: 1210 Trail: 1298

 

[Birchtree]

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The Technician,

Yes I am a moderate risk taker with the C fund - but I'd be taking a degree more risk if I were buying the S fund at these levels. Frankly, there is very little risk in TSP - I choose to increase that risk by going 100% in a particular fund using the power in my account as leverage for greater gains. Kinda showing the way - really nothing to it.

You say I'm in the unknown zone - to me it feels like the sweet zone. I've been in similar situations before going all the way back to the 80's. Have no fear. Today there were 708 new individual stock highs on the NYSE and I'm participating to the extent that I can - I may do some profit taking and buying in a few weeks - just want to ride the wooley beast for now. And possibly may blow right through the $1M figure real soon. When you own a large account like the oceanic you have to be able to accept a temporary loss on occassion and allow income growth to be dominant over capital gains growth. I did considerable buying on the previous bottom of Dow 10,051 locking in some pleasant yields and now those shares are making a contribution to the portfolio. It's not always about protection and conservation.

My TSP tugboat account is holding firm to 100% C fund. Not interested in the S fund at this point in the cycle - the reason will become more evident as this bull leg progresses. The tugboat does lend itself to rapid conservation moves because it is a mutual fund index- but at this point I prefer to ride this wooley beast also and just dollar cost average for now - a 100% position will pay more even with less point gains.

 

[macdtrader]

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vectorman,

Thanks foryour illuminating charts and moneymaking ideas.In your opinion,will the recent uptrend continue for S, I, and C? I am still 100% in stocks but noticed thatmost recent posts by the other members are bearish or neutral. Thanks and best of luck to you and everyone trying to make money in TSP.

 

[The_Technician]

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We have the Import/Export prices and International trade data reporting today....

As well as the Petro status and Treasury Budget report today.....

It should all make good news except for the petrol status...

Sell on the news.....isn't that what you should do....??? What do u think there Birch....???

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Released on 7/12/05 For wk 7/9 2005













Store Sales, W/W change

Actual
0.1%


class=econo-sectiontitleHighlights
ICSC-UBS's weekly chain store index rose 0.1% in the July 9 week, pushing the year-on-year rate to 3.9% and near the top end of its recent range. The report cited pre-hurricane stocking of emergency goods in the Southeast ahead of Hurricane Dennis. In a special question, ICSC-UBS found that high gas prices are beginning to crimp higher income groups.

 

[mlk_man]

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The Technician wrote:

Gee,I look important.....hmmmm thats a complement!!!

Oops, there shouldn't be an "r" in that I don't think...........:shock:

Sorry to tellya, but bond yields are up today......

 

[The_Technician]

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Trade gap narrows.....bonds tick lower

http://money.cnn.com/2005/07/13/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm

 

[The_Technician]

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A good article on bond yield inversion....

http://money.cnn.com/2005/07/08/markets/bondcenter/inverted_yield/index.htm

 

[robo]

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This market will not give up......The longs look good for the rest of the week...... How about that I Fund!!!!!!!!! Still grazing.



The S&P 50-day moving average continued its advance and reached 1192.78 yesterday, well within the support band between 1190 and 1194.90. The 200-day moving average closed at 1178.27, and on Thursday it will reach the S&P 500 recovery high at 1179, reached in May. There is strong support at this level in the unanticipated event that 1190 fails to stop a decline.

 

[vectorman]

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macdtrader wrote:

vectorman,

Thanks foryour illuminating charts and moneymaking ideas.In your opinion,will the recent uptrend continue for S, I, and C? I am still 100% in stocks but noticed thatmost recent posts by the other members are bearish or neutral. Thanks and best of luck to you and everyone trying to make money in TSP.

Please don't bet the farm on my opinion. I have been watching this site for almost a year and have learned much from reading the post of Tom and others who have contributed to this site.I also enjoy the various links that some offered such as teknobucks, spaf ( dow theory ), coolhand ( market manipulation ), technician, wonder woman, Tspgo, Tgrmike, saraho (I sure miss her, she had great I fund info), and many others that truly wanted to help.I also want to take this moment tothank FundSurfer and Pyriel for taking the time to put out the account tally. With the tally it helps to show how some members are really doing with the various investment strategies that are presented. You may have noticed since you signed on back in March,thatsometimes there is some great information and sometimes not so great.I have no idea what the market is going to do.What I do know is the market bottomedat the end of Apirl and has been climbing since then. I don't know why it keeps on climbing with high gas prices and other negative market conditions that others have mentioned at this site, except for birchtree. But as you can seewe have been in an long upward trend since March 2003, but with many pullbacks and corrections.

This is my opinion, the herd as been in the G and F funds. The small caps broke out a while ago. The SPX may break out today or soon. The herdis tired of missing out and has already started to jump back in. Ie- Someone callingoil in the 'panic range', but is stillwilling to put 40% in stocks, after they had been sitting in the G fund for a while.At the end of Dec 04 someone at this site talked about howmany of the retail brokers were getting heavy in the market. A few days later we had the big sell off. I will add,nobody knows what the market is going to do tomorrow. The trend has been up, and for those who go long, I'm sure they are sleeping better at night, spend less time worrying about the market, and in the end will probably make out just as goodorbetter than those who are in and out of the market alot. There is money to be made (or lost) by moving your money in and out of the funds, but it is better to have a system so emotion is kept out of the equation.Just my opinion. Good luck.:^

 

[teknobucks]

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Ebbers gets 25 years
Former WorldCom chief, 63 years-old, could spend the rest of his life in prison.
July 13, 2005: 12:29 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Ex-WorldCom chief executive Bernard Ebbers was sentenced Wednesday to 25 years in prison for his role in orchestrating the biggest corporate fraud in the nation's history.

Legal experts said the sentence is the largest ever against a top executive convicted of committing corporate crimes.

Ebbers was convicted in March for his part in the $11 billion accounting fraud at WorldCom that was the biggest in a wave of corporate scandals at Enron, Adelphia and other companies.

WorldCom, now known as MCI, filed the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history in 2002. The company's collapse cost shareholders and employees billions of dollars in losses.

Ebbers, 63, was convicted in March of nine felonies that carried a maximum prison term of 85 years.

U.S. District Court Judge Barbara Jones ordered Ebbers to begin serving his sentence in October.

It's not yet known where he will be incarcerated, but the Bureau of Prisons has a policy of placing inmates within 500 miles of their homes, if possible.

In issuing the sentence, Judge Jones recommended a prison in Yazoo City, Miss.

Ebbers had asked for leniency, arguing that his heart problems, history of community service and personal financial losses from WorldCom's collapse warranted a lighter sentence.

Legal experts said they were not surprised by the stiff sentence. They pointed to a series of harsh punishments that have come down in recent years, including the sentences that came down last month for two former Adelphia Communications executives.

John Rigas, Adelphia's founder, and his son Timothy, the cable company's former chief financial officer, got 15 years and 20 years, respectively.

"When it comes to issues of fraud committed by chief executive officers, judges are very emphatic in trying to set a harsh tone," said Barry Felder, a partner in the law firm Brown Raysman Millstein Felder & Steiner.

Ebbers, on his way to be sentenced Wednesday morning, pushed a photographer out of his way.