Market Talk

[The_Technician]

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Robo.....I was watching the action today and the market hit that recent high at 1219 and stopped, the market impulses today turned south and never really took a good look back.....a similar thing happened this time in 2000.....didn't surpass the spring high and dropped in the following fall mostly down till two years later..........765 on S&P

IMHO I really believe that the market players know its high, the economic picture isn't ripe, PPI and CPI and other news is out this week and they pulled back....thus leaving the market in limbo.....after the trading news and such this week, I think the consensus will be it isn't worth it and will slowly end their position over the next several months......of course I've been saying this for a short time now, but the further we go the more likely it will be.....unless something really fantastic happens.....we should be watching closely for a market drop....somewhere around early mid Sept or at least a start of one.....

All my data is slowly showing the market is turning south....the accumulation for the first time on a two-three week rebound is weak and failing to set any new high....that isn't good...I posted what I thought would happen up to Sept Oct on another thread today....read it, itmentions two cycles down before we should consider holding cash altogether by Fall.

Keep in mind I'm open minded and not a perm bull or bear.....its just it looks bearish and not worth risking hard earned retirement on a pinnacle of ifs and a weak economy......remember, there is alot of opinions on the economic strength right now.....we will return, but it will be in a couple of years.....I fear alot of people will soon be losing their homes and such until then.......who knows, maybe they will let all the hard criminals out to make room for honest hardworking people who work but are just caught in a tough spot....wouldn't that be great...



:^

 

[tsptalk]

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Mike wrote:

Looks like we are no longer matching 1994 on the chart.

I was thinking about that. It could be the late June sell off in 1994 was just more steep than the sell off that ended last week. That would mean weare now in the long uptrend that came afterward in 1994. Either that or we are closer to the 2004 chart and the drop will be a long slow process starting when we hit a new high.

So we'll either go up, or down. Any questions? :*

 

[smine]

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What did the shares end as today? The TSP web page won't retrieve the share prices......where else can we get them?

 

[robo]

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Tech,

Thank's for your comments..... I agree the wall of worry istall! But I'm playing the trend, and the 1190 support has held up. As long as it holds I'm going to try and play this narrow trading range..... I'm currently 100% fixed income, wating on the 1190's again and remain cautious.

 

[Birchtree]

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This technician has got my knees knocking together - or am I simply in a state of perpetual glee. We'll be leaving any semblance of trading range shortly - looks like 1995 all over again.

Spaf or Robo,

How do I shut off this white smoke trailing from my quad thrusters - can you see if it is still there?

 

[Spaf]

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AKA Flash Gordon... AKA Rocketman...

Plull back the thrusters to cruise. Or, put 10% in the G-fund. That should do it! However with out the trail of smoke...WW won't be able to track your orbit! Tech won't know where to find you, neither will anyone else! Maybe you should leave the smoke on.......unless you get low on rocket juice!

Rgds Spaf

 

[Spaf]

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TSP Share Price as of 07/11/2005: G=10.93, F=10.63, C=13.12, S=15.63, I=15.42

Rgds Spaf

 

[teknobucks]

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Birchtree wrote:

This technician has got my knees knocking together - or am I simply in a state of perpetual glee.

 

[teknobucks]

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Big BP oil rig listing badly in U.S. Gulf
By Jim Jelter, MarketWatch
Last Update: 8:08 PM ET July 11, 2005


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- BP Plc. said late Monday that Thunder Horse, one if its big Gulf of Mexico deepwater oil rigs, was listing badly after Hurricane Dennis swept through area this past weekend.

The semi-submersible rig, an essential component in the development of the Thunder Horse oil and gas field on Mississippi Canyon Block 778, about 150 miles southeast of New Orleans, was heeled over at an angle of 20 to 30 degrees, the company said.

While too early to say what caused the rig to lean, righting and repairing it could pose a costly delay to BP's plans to bring the field on line later this year.

BP (BP: news, chart, profile) is operator on the Thunder Horse field, holding a 75% stake in the project, with partner Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM: news, chart, profile) holding the remaining 25%.

The giant rig was evacuated Friday as a precaution ahead of the storm, which slammed ashore Sunday along the Florida-Alabama border.

The Thunder Horse platform is among the world's biggest deepwater production platforms, designed to process about 250,000 barrels of crude oil a day, 200 million cubic feet of natural gas and accommodate a crew of 229.

Semi-submersible platforms float atop huge pontoons and are kept in place by anchors run out from each of the rig's corners to the seabed, which in this case is 6,050 feet below the surface

 

[robo]

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Birchtree wrote:

We'll be leaving any semblance of trading range shortly - looks like 1995 all over again.

I agree the blast off is coming, but I think we will have pullbacks and consolidationsbefore the blast off. Of course that is my current opinion, and could be wrong...... The market will have a tough time breaking thru 1250 while the Fed maintains it's current language.... If we break into the 1230's and hold I might have to raise up my trading range.... I will watch you fly high andenjoy watching you!!!! It's nice when you make the big bucks, I just don't have the stomach for the risks... It's always the risk takers who enjoy the biggest gains.... Go Birchtree............

 

[smine]

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Thanks for the share prices.

 

[teknobucks]

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:shock:

Analyst forecast further steel price slippage
http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA624644.html

Tanker rate peak in sight
http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA624645.html

Chinese exports depress aluminum's price
http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA624648.html

Rail demand, pricing remains high
http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA624649.html

Diesel way higher than a year ago
http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA624651.html

Iron ore prices to decline
http://www.purchasing.com/article/CA624652.html

don't worry if the hedge fund boyz don't buy the dips greeny will pump andprint us thru um...."MELT UP ERA"

HELLO....is anyone following the 1929-1940 dow V. 2000-20XX naz????? this calls for a nice rally thru EOY. (note: first part of 1934 was down = running mirror image to this year so far!!!

Technition, DMA et al forget the fundamentals, just ignore reality for ten minutes and check this out! I tell ya there is something 2 it.

http://www.zealllc.com/commentary/nasdaq1929.htm

tekno

 

[The_Technician]

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Yep Birch...you big risk taker.....we're in the unknown zone and you're still in it....but you know, I firmly believe you would have reached your 1 Mil goal a while ago if you had taken some opportunity to protect what you have....your risk of losing what you have gained here recently is very high.....its a time of conservation....consolidate and protect, especially after a recent gain like we have had this past week....then let it do the correction......get back in it later on.....

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Can't really disagree with that Robo....I'd go with 2 cycles myself, but remain cautious after that.....looking for a yo-yo until around the 22nd, then we should get another uptrend....


I got another signal showing up....its coinciding with the peak we hit yesterday...expecting that fact for a downtrend over the next week or so....also the accumulation on the S&P during this rise has been rather flat-weak....not the characteristic of the past year where you have regular set new Acc highs on every new peak.....


:^

 

[The_Technician]

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Today is the Canadian interest rate announcement. Here is why we should be interested......read the last paragraph especially......it does tell you about our current picture......

[align=left]
class=econo-sectiontitleDefinition
The Bank of Canada Governing Council consists of 6 members. The Council makes an announcement about every six weeks to indicate the near-term direction of monetary policy. There is no meeting schedule as there is for the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and European Central Bank.
[align=left]

The Bank of Canada Governing Council determines interest rate policy for Canada. The Council is composed of the Governor, Senior Deputy Governor, and four Deputy Governors. There is no predetermined meeting schedule, but rather the Bank issues an announcement schedule at which time, monetary policy changes, if any, are made public. Unlike the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, or the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada has an established inflation target range of between one and three percent but is focused on the mid-point of two percent. Because interest rate decisions affect market interest rates to varying degrees, the Bank has created its own core consumer price index, which eliminates eight volatile products.
As in the United States, market participants speculate about the possibility of an interest rate changes. If the outcome is different from expectations, the impact on Canadian markets can be dramatic and far-reaching. The interest rate set by the Bank of Canada, serves as a benchmark for all other rates. A change in the rate translates directly through to all other interest rates.
The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, few homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the stock market, while lower interest rates are bullish.
[/align][/align]

 

[The_Technician]

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The Redbook is due today also....its tells the consumer spending story....

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001 and again in 2003.
The Redbook is one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits.


Something for us to look forward to during Christmas season.....I guess some kids will be getting gallons of gas for presents...:shock:

:dude:

 

[Guest]

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Technician,
I've been monitoring and reporting on the weekly Key Economic Indicators for this board. You point out two additional indicators that are due out today, the Canadian interest rate and the Redbook. Would you have any idea why the Redbook is not listed in this week's list of indicators as outlined on Briefing.com? I understand the Canadian interest rate is an International indicator and I'm not monitoring those at this time (the International indicator list is very long). However, as you explained the Redbook's Consumer Spending seems to be significant.
Any suggestions are appreciated.

 

[The_Technician]

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The Redbook survey is a weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the ICSC-UBS index. This index is correlated with the general merchandise portion of retail sales, covering only about 10 percent of total retail sales.

Maybe you should just look for the ICSC-UBS index.....

:dude:

 

[Guest]

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Thanks I'm pretty sure the ICSC-UBS index is a listed indicator.

 

[The_Technician]

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I've been mentioning the Accumulation on the S&P of late...

I firmly believe that if we don't see any significant uptrend of this curve in the next couple of weeks, we will see the start of the market making its move down for the year....

This is a challenging time for the market.....its the time of the truth of its future.

:dude: