Market Talk

[Guest]

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coolhand wrote:

Sell-off? Down-trend maybe and even then limited to a few percent.

Wouldn't a 4% or 5% drop that didn't immediately go back up be called a sell-off?

 

[Skip]

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Got the sell sign today !!! Still left 20% in c and s 60% G to buy back in lower I hope...
I follow this guy for years and he has my approval..
From the master Ed Downs for the market Wedesday...

Updated Tuesday, 5/10 for Wednesday's market. print
Key DOW Levels for 5/11
UP Above 10,385
DN Below 10,200
Steady Decline
Dow breaks triangle to downside, trends lower to the Close.

From prior commentary, "...Watch the boundaries of the consolidation tomorrow, as a break will likely lead to another sharp move. Watch 10,400 up, and 10,325 down for a violation tomorrow. A break either way should yield clear movement..."

The Dow opened the session sharply lower, as the index tested the lower boundary of the triangle right from the beginning, as seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The Dow crossed the lower boundary of the consolidation at 10,325, which eventually led to a steady 103 point decline, also seen in the 60 Minute Chart.

Given today's downside break, we can expect the index to endure a period of pull-back from the recent highs, seen in the Daily and 60 Minute Charts. Look for the index to test 10,200 soon, as this is the next clear level of concern for the index. A break at this level will indicate an even steeper decline, possibly back toward 10,000.

We may see continued volatility as the index struggles to find direction. However, continued weakness is likely beneath 10,350. An upside push through this level will indicate near term strength.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the index has formed a clear range at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart from 10,250 to 10,285. Watch for a break from this range for movement tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short at 10,324, but stopped out with a breakeven trade. We later re-entered Shorts at 10,294 and are still in the trade. We will hold stops at the entry and will want to stay Short below 10,200. We will hold off on Longs, unless 10,350 is crossed to the upside; using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ and S&P each breached lower boundaries, sparking varying degrees of a retracement. Look for each index to remain slightly weaker, unless key levels are crossed to the upside.

Summary

The Dow ended the day near the session lows after breaking the consolidation to the downside. Look for a continuation lower in the near term, especially if the index holds beneath 10,350.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading!

Ed Downs
edowns@nirvsys.com

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Sr. Market Analyst
fochoa@nirvsys.com

 

[coolhand]

imported post

greg wrote:

coolhand wrote:

Sell-off? Down-trend maybe and even then limited to a few percent.

Wouldn't a 4% or 5% drop that didn't immediately go back up be called a sell-off?

Semantics. Why does it have to be immediate? Myreal point was that it would not last for long. Call it a sell-off, I suppose it is, but the fact is our political climate will not allow this market to enter a period of sustained pain. Too much at stake.

Timing is everything. Especiallyfor the market. I'm sure you would agree that economics is hopelessly intertwined with politics and banking (read monetary policy here and not just domestic). We can analyze all we want, but it's obvious that in the end monetary policy dictates to a very large degree what the market is going to do and things are quite political right now. That's why this market is makingso many "experts" look like amatuers, bears and bulls. Even the Oracle of Omaha is taking a beating.

I will say again as I've said a couple times this week, I am neither bullish nor bearish at the moment, just cautiously optimistic. I am now 100% invested in stox, but I'm comfortable with that at the moment, even if we continue to chop around. The time just isn't right yet for a hard and sustained "sell-off". JMHO

 

[learning]

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First Happy Birthday. A lot of good things in history have taken place on Friday the 13th. Seems people forget the good quickly.

To Spaf. No open that mouth or push those keys. People talk about what you say as you think and make good points.

I wish I could find a pattern to assure me themove to make.

 

[Skip]

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learning wrote:

First Happy Birthday. A lot of good things in history have taken place on Friday the 13th. Seems people forget the good quickly.

To Spaf. No open that mouth or push those keys. People talk about what you say as you think and make good points.

I wish I could find a pattern to assure me the move to make.

Here it is for the short term...

We may see continued volatility as the index struggles to find direction. However, continued weakness is likely beneath 10,350. An upside push through this level will indicate near term strength.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the index has formed a clear range at the lows of the 5 Minute Chart from 10,250 to 10,285. Watch for a break from this range for movement tomorrow morning.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Short at 10,324, but stopped out with a breakeven trade. We later re-entered Shorts at 10,294 and are still in the trade. We will hold stops at the entry and will want to stay Short below 10,200. We will hold off on Longs, unless 10,350 is crossed to the upside; using 20 point stops.
Skip
Below is the sell signal I got today...

 

[Spaf]

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learning wrote:

I wish I could find a pattern to assure me themove to make.

Learning! here is as close as I can get ya!

1. Take a look at The Dow Theory on the internet. A link is:

http://stockcharts.com/education/MarketAnalysis/dowtheory1.html

2. U dont have to re-invent the wheel. But consider getting a copy of Trading for Dummies. I just love the books, they are generally fairly middle of the road, and they have big print!

3. Two critical elements exist in trading: Fundamentals (the economy) and Technicals (charts, trends, etc). Both elements have to be considered, your assure (at best).

Daily activity can be hypnotic and can only illuminate trends at best. Weekly activity can slow the process and give a bigger picture, your pattern (at best).

I say at best because as U know there is no crystal ball.

When you get some time go to: http://stockcharts.com

See the Easy as 1 2 3. and check out two charts. One is the gallery view and the other is the sharp chart. Enter $SPX for the S&P 500.

The gallery view will give a daily and weekly chart.
The sharp chart will give a chart with various indicator options.

These are all free and I like free-bees

Regards! and enjoy! Spaf

 

[grandma]

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pyriel wrote:

That happens to be my bday... boo hoo...
... I was talking to one of my friends in Continental who happens to be in mgmt and he said that they are getting hit hard of this fuel situation. They are ending up lowering down the price just so they can fill up seats and break even. They are now pumping money in marketing, salesand customer service so that they can continue to entice customers (and keep them).

I bought my May 25 Continental tickets back in March - I needed to be sure I had seats, and that thefuel bill didn't add a few zeros to the price of the tickets!! I don't suppose they would refund anything they have reduced to??? You can be sure I woulnd't pay the increase on this end !! So I'll just settle for my flights NOT beingcancelled!!!

Happy Birthday, Pyriel!

 

[The_Technician]

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That one's cool there Grandma.....Happy Birthday Pyriel......

The Iran thing is a hanger.......you guys know how the market will focus on these and go with them.....of course its just talk at the moment on Bushs part....but, the Iraninans are not helping the situation....:?

Well time has come and yesterday afternoon shows you how fragile the market is.....I said itwas propped up and that action yesterday reaffirms my feelings....

Keep you eyes open for a slide ...just like it did right after the first week or so for the past two months.....

I have seen a possibility of the S&Pbelow 1100 to 1050 or so in the immediate future.....but you can't tell....if it wants to take a dive it is possible.....it wouldn't surprise me if the market wants a new low entry point......and then its buying time for a short while...!!!

I've been getting winds of change that indicatewe couldexperience a market downer for a while....like over 1-1/2 years......but its notfirmed up yet....its still debateable....

The Technician:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Hey Pyriel...do you know how many suppliers are affected by GM and Fords troubles....its a massive enterprise.....

You know Continental has been doing well for the last several years.....if they are having a tough time, then imagine the airline industry suffering big time.....I heard that some of the airlines have bought fuel futures to slip through these up and down periods at an even level.......good management....

Well, high expenses for everyone does not make a good environment for the market....and they have a lasting effect......

:dude:

 

[learning]

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Thanks Spaf. Yes I do need to read more. I have been doing some reading just not enough. The market for me is such a hard read. Big letters cool, now if they would use the small words.

Flying. Ok. Here is something that saved me on a trip. I bought flight insurance. When they canceled because of a strike a lot of people were stranded in a city with no place to stay. They could have paid from their pocket. Set up rides. ETC... I had flight insurance and they tried to set me on another airline. They did not even try the other people. They could not get me to where I was going. So they set me up in a room and a ride. Next day they had a flight still working and I was put on that ahead of a lot of people. People were mad. It was the baggage handlers sick out on the East Coast. I saw what others went through. Only a few of us had flight insurance. I do not get it normally. Infact first time and I used it the first time. I was afraid of something like that. If you have real fear perhaps get flight insurance. I did mine when I bought my ticket on line. Bid for your ticket kind of deal. Good luck flying.

 

[Dogdaddy]

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Way lower than expected Trade Deficit number just announced ($55 bln vs. $62 bln expected) should be good for US Equities and the Dollar...not good for I or F Funds. Go figure ???!!!!

 

[The_Technician]

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I'm looking near term expectations and I expect somewhere around or below 1130-1125 in the next several days...... if nothing comes up that would keep us up at current levels............you may want to make your plans accordingly...

Of course, I might be wrong....but......

The Technician:dude:

 

[Gritz]

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Tech, that is quite a drop for just "several days", is there not some resistance, suspect that it might be, but still someat or around 1153-1155 range and again in the mid 1140s that would slow such a steep drop? Is it a break throughof the s&p 200 MA that gives you this expectation (among other things of course)?

 

[The_Technician]

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I based it on the behavior of recent market activity andvarious other factors are around that level....

I know, its kinda brave of me....but I have been touting this week as a possibility of a downer for what.....2 weeks or more....last 2 daysactivity shows the weakness....

Its not a safe month......fools market as I mentioned lately....

I've been looking at further down the road....but I can't confirm what may scare you right out of your shoes .......we could see 1000.....on the S&P....but I can't confirm it yet.....and its not anytime soon.....so don't read too much into it.

I'm 100% G......and 3.66% up for the year......this situation reminds me a sailboat race I was in once.....we put out the anchor when wind went slack......while we held position...all the other boats fell back with the tideovernight...and we were way ahead the following morning......not a pretty way to get ahead, but it sure gets you out front!!!

The Technician:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Of course my number of days could be off.......it could take up to two-three weeks.....seems lately I've have been way early on some predictions lately....maybe I haven't gotten use to indexs yet.......those individual stocks sure move alot faster....but I have seen since I've been tracking the S&P that it can move swiftly if it wants too.......

But I do know that it doesn't look like we're going up much to speak of....

:dude:

 

[Gritz]

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2-3 weeks, careful sounds like you're hedging on us ,

I agree that things don't appear too favorable but then again, hopefully that is not as long term as your analysis indicates; but until things firm up,plan on quick hit and runs, getting in low and out just as quick, hopefully on an up tick, but I won't be fully committed until things appear to settle.


thanks for your posts.

 

[Dave M]

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Some kind of security alert is underway in Wash DC -- evacuating the public buildings, etc. This sort of thing is never good for the market.



Dave

 

[The_Technician]

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Sounds like my post yesterday afternoon....about Iran....except Bill O'Reilly was really laying in on the line......it was like Bush was seriously considering hitting them with bombs soon.....just goes to show you that you just can't pay attention just to the market this day and time....:^

Yeah, how about GM and Ford hedge funds.....mix that with Fanny Mae and others and you got yourself a real headache...:X

Too many iffy items out there to bring this market to its knees......may all be beware....o

:dude:

 

[SkyPilot]

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United Airlines files for protection due to underfunding of retirement pension fund.

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/11614181.htm

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date May 11, Closing


Market News.

News: In AM two horsemen, Krude and Rats were spotted on rural route harrasing carts enroute to market. Elsewhere, a small skunk wandered into castle area, scattering elders. Armed musketeers dispatched to give chase to skunk. After lunch Krude's horse "Fill-er-up" was seen riderless, apparently Krude took another fall dn 1.62 to 50.45. Carts resumed supplying market.


Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&Pat1171.11, rising.
CMF money flowat0.017, rising.
RSI strengthat51.6, rising
MACD moving averagesat-0.69, rising, bullish.
STO momentumat82.83, falling slightly.

Tea Leaves: Green, with caution.


Yak.

Remarks: Upped holdings: 0/100 (50C,50S).
Two cautions: market in trading range, some negative bear sentiment.