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Well we came through today's trade deficit numbers with flying colors although it looked iffy there for a while. I think folks will realize there is goodreason to buy, fundamentals-wise, and we will see a nice rise tomorrow and Friday:Ours isthe world's premier economy and the best place to invest.

If I am correct and there is any sort of positive motion before noon Thursday, I shall add tomy position at that time. (It looked too iffy this morning.)

Dave
 
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Dogdaddy wrote:
Way lower than expected Trade Deficit number just announced ($55 bln vs. $62 bln expected) should be good for US Equities and the Dollar...not good for I or F Funds. Go figure ???!!!!
Click to expand...
I'm a little slow... Can somebody explain why this would be good for dollar and c/s funds and not the f/i fund? Thank you...
 
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It wasn't very long ago that low interest rates were hurting the dollar. Remember our debt is being financed in large measure byforex currencies. With bond yields low again (for how long?) that may very well become an issue again.

If it's not one thing it's another...LOL
 
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Pyriel,

I believe the reduction in the trade deficit had more to do with higher US inventory levels that swelled in the first quarter, even though US manufacturing - output growth slowed. Most of this inventory build up was produced overseas. With the perhaps recent cooling of the economy, companies are trying to work off these inventories. That means the imports will be reduced for awhile , but not for very long. These are very long term cyclical trends. Other countries will be back to exporting again helping the I fund constituents. The dollar is still historically low and that helps industrial manufacturing type companies export. They still have a competitive advantage for a change. The C, S, and I funds all win.

The important thing for the I fund is the ECB (European Central Bank) has already stated publically that they have stopped raising interest rates because inflation is trending lower. That will help the I fund. The C fund however will still outperform. Why you ask-because our Fed has also stopped increasing rates- they just haven't advertised their move. Dennis
 
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pyriel wrote:
Dogdaddy wrote:
Way lower than expected Trade Deficit number just announced ($55 bln vs. $62 bln expected) should be good for US Equities and the Dollar...not good for I or F Funds. Go figure ???!!!!
Click to expand...
I'm a little slow... Can somebody explain why this would be good for dollar and c/s funds and not the f/i fund? Thank you...
Click to expand...
Word this am from several economists was that trade data pointed to stronger 1st Qtr economic/GDP growth => Good forUS Equities and stronger US$. Strong dollar usually not good for I-Fund. Stronger growthgenerally weighs on Bonds(F) because it could lead to higher inflation.

Another topic: Interesting Market stats for your Birthday (Friday 13th):

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/10/markets/friday_13th/index.htm

DD
 
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pyriel wrote:
Dogdaddy wrote:
Way lower than expected Trade Deficit number just announced ($55 bln vs. $62 bln expected) should be good for US Equities and the Dollar...not good for I or F Funds. Go figure ???!!!!
Click to expand...
I'm a little slow... Can somebody explain why this would be good for dollar and c/s funds and not the f/i fund? Thank you...
Click to expand...


Ok this is how I read it. I am no expert.

Dollar- people are buying into our market. Money coming in. People think that the Fed will have to raise rates a little faster to prevent stagflation. Prevent inflation by cuttin back on U.S. Dollars, (raise intrest rates). So people buy U.S. dollars in advance to try and catch the up grade of U.S. currency. This is what I read on Yahoo and other places.

C and S fund- More sells being made to other countries. Business in the U.S. picking up some money from other countries. Profit. People hope that this will bring better reports in the future.

I fund- Well dollar goes up in value theforeign market can make money and we lose as a result of the U.S dollar going up in value. Example- You buy stock in country X at a value of 1US to 1 country X dollar. You make fivepercent in the other country's market. U.S. dollar went up in value though. So you take that 1.05 country X dollar, (yourprofit from their market)and change it toU.S. dollar. U.S. dollar now worth 1.15 of country Xdollar. Your down- you only get back .91 dollars back for every dollar you put intocountryX's market. (The exchange for every 1.05 country X dollars would be about .91 U.S. Dollars.) You lost 9 cents on the dollar. These are all rough figures. Point is still the same.

Hope this helps. This is what I understand. I am still just learning so do not take this with a grain of salt. Go ahead take it with the whole salt shaker. LOL
 
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Want to compare how stocks on TSP are doing (the big picture)?

Go to link: http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/

Type in AGG for the F-fund, IJR for the S-fund (Small Caps), $SPX for the C-fund, and EFA for the I-fund. U get to play with the charts, and check positions!

Rgds! :) Spaf
 
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Spaf wrote:
Type in AGG for the F-fund, IJR for the S-fund (Small Caps), $SPX for the C-fund, and EFA for the I-fund. U get to play with the charts, and check positions!
Click to expand...
Is IJR better than $EMW in your opinion?

By the way thanks for turning me onto stockcharts.:^
 
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Show-me wrote:
Spaf wrote:
Type in AGG for the F-fund, IJR for the S-fund (Small Caps), $SPX for the C-fund, and EFA for the I-fund. U get to play with the charts, and check positions!
Click to expand...
Is IJR better than $EMW in your opinion?

By the way thanks for turning me onto stockcharts.:^
Click to expand...
There is IJR, IJT, IJS and now U added $EMW. I dont know which one would be the closer to the S-fund, they seem to track pretty close to one another. If a member could clarify, would be appreciated! They are all small caps. The answer is: ???

Rgds :) Spaf
 
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Fund info. on tsp.gov states that the "benchmark index" is "Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Completion stock index". That's all I was going by but I will look into how each compares now that you gave me a few.

Good luck this week!:)
 
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The first of these funds, the Fixed Income Index Investment Fund, or F fund, is a bond market fund primarily invested in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index designed to track the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate Index.
[

The second fund, the C Fund,
is TSP's large-company stock fund. It is invested in the Barclays
Equity Index Fund and tracks the Standard & Poor's 500.

The Small Capitalization Stock Index Investment Fund, or S Fund, is invested in
Barclays Extended Market Index Fund and is managed to track the
Wilshire 4500.

The I Fund is the TSP's international stock index fund
and is invested in Barclays EAFE Index Fund (Europe, Australasia, and
Far East) and holds shares of major companies and industries in the
European, Australian, and Asian stock markets.


This is what TSP tracks, as long as it is the same it should work.
 
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Ya'll check out my comments on predicting the G fund increase.....in the the G fund board.....I think we can make datepredictions on the increase.....

:dude:
 
imported post

Spaf wrote:
Type in AGG for the F-fund, IJR for the S-fund (Small Caps), $SPX for the C-fund, and EFA for the I-fund. U get to play with the charts, and check positions!
Click to expand...


DWCP exactly matches the Wilshire 4500. You might have to type in $DWCP depending on which site you are checking from. Also, as we have discussed ad nauseum on this board, EFA isn't the greatest way to track the I fund. The best way, as tgrmike has shown us, is to look at the EAFE in U.S. dollars. Unfortunately this is not something that is updated continuously throughout the day. MSCI posts it on there website between 2:00 and 2:30 pm everyday. (And then tgrmike promptly posts it here most days). If I'm trying to get a before noon read on the I fund, I go to CNN money and look at the Asian, Australian, and European markets, AND I go to barchart and look at the dollar index. This allows me to hazard a decent guess.

Dave
 
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But, Retail sales were up more than expected for April per Yahoo Market news: Apr. retail sales checked in up 1.4%, well above expectations and versus a revised prior read of +0.4% (up from 0.3%)

Should make for an interesting morning with the wal-mart news and oil and gold retreating.
 
imported post

Thanks Tech. Cursory review seems to show a bullish sentiment toward retail sales, what am I missing?

In any case, time to go help the economy and help out a favorite restaurant chain.
 
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