Market Talk

[The_Technician]

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Well I've got some data that concerns this week thru 1st week of June......same data indicated the weak market in April.....

I guess its a matter of time to tell what happens.....it works very well with individual stocks and has helped earlier on in March......when I joined the board....

The problem is....I don't have enough time in with index's to accurately tell what is happening.....I am just going on with my experience with the individual stocks....I was getting this week thru the next as a caution flag...

To tell you the truth...the market looks ficticious to me....in other words, some prices are being propped up in my opinion.....and that could mean a drastic move sometime sooner or later.....

I guess I should shut up until I see later......but I'm holding out until I see the coast is clear.....at least for the next several weeks....then I'll get back in......I just don't think its safe.....I'm playing it really safe....seeing that the market news isn't super....March was a long term High.....and so forth .....

So I'll sit on the sideline for a while...it does seem to be slow doing what I think should be happening....

The Technician:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Gritz wrote:

Tech, I've seen your stated concerns over this week, but not sure why you have them other than past historical months of May are not good and the 13th (superstitious?)? Please allow for ignorance here, just trying to get a handle on what/why certain folks believe what they do about the market, and if you have stated the reason in prior posts I'm sorry I missed them, but would you mind expounding upon your concern over this friday and this week? Appreciate your input and Thanks in advance.

The Friday the 13th just happen to show up on the dates around my concern......hope that clears up that issue......I'm not superstitious until others use it to be.....and right at the moment, I believe anything could drop this propped up market.....

Just my feelings on the interest rates, energy costs, producitivity (productivity is a inverse leading indicator of future market performance- when its low, market gets growing, when its high market gets slowing), employment rates, etc etc....and lack of market exuberance....:X

I know I've been running my mouth too much........just trying to let you know what I fear......hope I'm right....but if I'm wrong, at least money isn't lost in the mean time...just profits.....:?

We'll see in any case....Like I said, I'm on the sidelines for a while...

The Technician:dude:

 

[Birchtree]

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The Technician;

Thanx for your postings-keep the mouth in motion- you actually help keep someone like myself somewhat grounded. I'm as you know a contrarian bull, but I'm not unreasonable, only a renegade capable of changing my opinion. The bottom line is your money is your money and you can do what you want withit, isn't that great.

Presently I'm strapped in waiting for the tremendous ride that is coming, the coming of the second leg if you will, that will eventually lift the Dow another 3000 points. The tape feels good today. The ground swell has been slowly building and when the pressure is released-whew- only Wonder Woman will be able to catch up because she can fly. I keep remembering the back to back Dow moves off the 7/02 bottom. The recent level of negative sentiment has exceeded those levels. Does history repeat in some situations? I now have to leave the tape and go extend a labor of love and wax my wife's new car.

 

[The_Technician]

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Gritz...see what these said today also

http://story.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050509/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

Exhuberance is not there......this brings up a caution flag to me .....I'm every careful if any opinion that is positive right now....I wonder where they get it....is it verified positive or just an uncertified opinion....markets just don't like high energy costs, interest rates and high productivity rates turning over to high employment rates which means lower productivity later....of course it could make a good sales job....to unsuspecting investors......which we should all be at the moment....question everything......even my evaluation.....its just good investing.

Used car salesman buy low and sell high.....the same is true in the market....

here is another outlook about disposable income of individuals real income...means less profits in the future..

http://story.news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050509/bs_nm/economy_consumers_spending_dc;_ylt=Anxbq_nR7mCMP93TcRuh_pGyBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

:dude:

 

[Gritz]

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Don't see you as "running your mouth too much", appreciate your thoughts and insights. I just think it's important to understand another's perspectiveor presuppositions which may have an influence upon their comments and/or trading philosophy, to include what they think about the current market. Thanks for the clarification on the 13th, would have been worried if you signed "Jason":shock:

I too am on the sidelines waiting for an entry to either obtain a quick increase in poisition and return to the side or an entry to a more sustained moderate to long-term run up with the s&p.Currently seems the market likes to give a little to you and then, turn around and take it back and trying to time such a beast is dangerous--oh, for a prolonged run up on the s&p. Looks to be interesting today if the market can hold and come off the support line, what will ye olde "smart money" dowhen the last hour of the day arrives??

Keep the posts coming, and good fortune to you:^

 

[The_Technician]

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Birchtree wrote:

The Technician;

Thanx for your postings-keep the mouth in motion- you actually help keep someone like myself somewhat grounded. I'm as you know a contrarian bull, but I'm not unreasonable, only a renegade capable of changing my opinion. The bottom line is your money is your money and you can do what you want withit, isn't that great.

Presently I'm strapped in waiting for the tremendous ride that is coming, the coming of the second leg if you will, that will eventually lift the Dow another 3000 points. The tape feels good today. The ground swell has been slowly building and when the pressure is released-whew- only Wonder Woman will be able to catch up because she can fly. I keep remembering the back to back Dow moves off the 7/02 bottom. The recent level of negative sentiment has exceeded those levels. Does history repeat in some situations? I now have to leave the tape and go extend a labor of love and wax my wife's new car.

Birch

7/02 remember, that was as a long term bottom...not the case here ...just the opposite......

Wish I could see that jump coming....but I can't...ya'll can kick me around later if I'm wrong...

:dude:

 

[The_Technician]

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Here is some more good stuff



http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050508/column_stocks_outlook.html?.v=2



Not a great outlook

 

[Spaf]

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The Kingdom of TSP

Daily

Market News, Doodles, Tea Leaves & Yak Date May 9, Closing


Market News.

News: Krude jumps bail! Last reported, townsfolks were a fixin to sell Krude's horse. Horse was eating too much hay. About 2 PM Krude broke-in the local stables and snatched his horse. Krude was last seen riding up$1.07. Lube now 52.03 a bucket. Some townfolks now frightened that horsemen will return to raid fields.


Doodles and Tea Leaves.

Doodles:
S&P at 1178.84 up +7.49.
CMF money flow at 0.003, rising.
RSI strength at 55.4, rising.
MACD moving averages at -1.27, rising, bullish.
STO momentum at 89.57, rising.

Tea Leaves: Green with caution.


Yak.

Remarks: Holding 20/80 (40C, 40S).
Three cautions: market in trading range, oil is inching up, and some fear is mixed in market sentiment.

 

[Gritz]

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Technician:

I read: http://story.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20050509/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street
seems like a mixed bag from this report: "I think you've got a sense of optimism out there we haven't seen in awhile," said Bill Groenveld, head trader for vFinance Investments. "It's not enough to make a big push higher, but just enough to start a slow, sustained climb. I think there's faith in the Fed to manage things, and earnings growth has been good. So you're seeing folks creep back into the market."

and

"The move in the bond market also signaled movement of capital from bonds back into stocks. The major indexes have held onto their recent gains, with very little of the frenzied selling that marked April's trading. However, volume remained light and some analysts and traders felt investors remained very tentative. And even bullish analysts agreed that the market will remain sensitive to bad news and will send stocks lower at the first sign of negativity. "
"With all the questions out there, nobody sees a real reason to stick their neck out," said Mike Viracola, managing director and co-head of equities at Adams Harkness in Boston. "And with nobody out there making bets, the path of least resistance for this market is down."

The next two reports: http://story.news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050509/bs_nm/economy_consumers_spending_dc;_ylt=Anxbq_nR7mCMP93TcRuh_pGyBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/050508/column_stocks_outlook.html?.v=2

These two are related to consumer spending, or better, the lack thereof, and are a drag, both in thought and on the market......if they are accurate. Looks as though your concern over this week might be warranted with all the economic and some earnings reports due out, per the above report:

Tuesday:Redbook releases its U.S. chain-store sales. Cisco Systems Inc.(NasdaqNM:CSCO - News), the biggest maker of equipment that directs data over the Internet, will report results after the bell on Tuesday.

Wednesday: Data on the international trade deficit for March will be released. The forecast, according to economists polled by Reuters, calls for the trade deficit to widen slightly in March to $61.5 billion, from February's record trade gap of $61.04 billion.


Thursday: Initial jobless claims, with economists expecting the number to dip to 325,000 from 333,000 in the previous week. Dell Inc. (NasdaqNM:DELL - News) will issue earnings after the bell on Thursday.

Friday: University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment index, with economists expecting a preliminary May reading of 88.8, compared with 87.7 in the previous period.

And one final interesting comment from the article:

"Still, investors will look to see if the old Wall Street adage gains any traction this week: Sell in May, then go away.
"The market will try to extend its rally into next week but I don't think it will go a whole lot higher," said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James Financial.
"A lot of people will be watching Cisco to read the tea leaves (he's on to you Spaf ) from that one -- as a prism into the tech/telecom space," Saut added. "I wouldn't be laying on positions here. I think you've only got maybe another 100 points (higher) on the Dow from here." "



Thanks for the links, Tech.

Curious about today, the DOW and NAS were up, not much but given the choppiness of things still respectable, but it seemed (to me) that the s&p was up disproportionately to rise in the two exchanges - does anyone know if there were certain, selectcompanies/stocks bolstering the rise in the s&p or was it just the breadth of all s&p component advancers over decliners; or maybe this is just a stupid question?

Kudos to those of you in the C &S! (and lookeeee, the I as well ?!):^

 

[pyriel]

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Tech,

I am beginning to see some migration of posters who are slowly leaving stox or putting some in the g fund. Some have jumped out too early and losed/losing on the uptrend. Some just put in a % in g and I am speculating that they are being safe and/or positioning themselves to make a buy (in a low) if the market tanks. But I really think that you and your bearish counterparts' constant reminders of the impending doom or rather market instability are keeping some of us, bulls, planted in the ground of reality. To me this is great for it keeps me in my toes and have to recheck the reasoning for my moves.

Keep it up and maybe you'd just convert me (maybe...;-)...:^

Pyriel

 

[coolhand]

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pyriel wrote:

Tech,

I am beginning to see some migration of posters who are slowly leaving stox or putting some in the g fund. Some have jumped out too early and losed/losing on the uptrend. Some just put in a % in g and I am speculating that they are being safe and/or positioning themselves to make a buy (in a low) if the market tanks. But I really think that you and your bearish counterparts' constant reminders of the impending doom or rather market instability are keeping some of us, bulls, planted in the ground of reality. To me this is great for it keeps me in my toes and have to recheck the reasoning for my moves.

Keep it up and maybe you'd just convert me (maybe...;-)...:^

Pyriel

I am one of those who is slowly moving to a larger position in "G"and have already expressed my reasons in my account thread (hey, it's only 30%). I've had to ask myself what has really changed in the market? We are simply moving back up from an oversold condition.

Iam neither being bullish or bearish, but simply reacting to the high degree of uncertainty in the current market. Every week brings us more conflicting data, pulling one way and then the other. Who's really to say what the market is going to do. It takes a crystal ball in a market like this.

Now if we got a strong catalyst to propel us higher that makes it much easier. For now I'll keep a position in stox as long as we are at least in a trading range, but it seems to make sense to me to keep somethingin "G" until that time comes in the event we trend the other way.

As far as the market"tanking", I don't see it. That requires a catalyst too. Besides, how can oneachieve social security reform in a marketthat's headed south? Think aboutthat one forawhile....

 

[Dakota]

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I will be 100% s fund for a few days starting tuesday. I see more room in the small caps then I do any where else. when I do make a move it will mostly be s c I





May go 25 g 25c 50s toward the end of week might even consider taking 25 out of g and putting in I

 

[Birchtree]

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The Technician,

There was a bottom formation in both 7/02 and 10/02. The 7/02 correction started in mid 2/02. It ended with the Dow down to 7702 for a1043 point drop or 13.5%. The gain that followed in 4 days trading was 1009 points for a gain of 13.1%

The bottom in 10/02 came from a Dow high of around 9000 in 8/02, when the correction was over the Dow was at or around 7200. The gain in the next 4 days was 969 points or 13.3%. That was bottom #2 of a tripple bottom. I'm trying to demonstrate the power that may be out there waiting to explode. The first leg provided a 3000 point gain. We have been essentially correcting that move since 1/04. My bullish bet says the next leg will provide another 3000 points up. I have a great deal of money ready to make even more green. Dow 13000 here we come.

 

[Birchtree]

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Pyriel,

Actually the more people sitting cozy in the shelter the better the renegade contrarian feels. No exuberance out there, great! Keep it that way as long as you can. We're back to those 50 million Frenchman again, will they be right this time-I rather doubt it. My neck is stuck out and I'm ready for my punishment. As Wheels might say-live free or die. I'm also from New Hampshire.

 

[Spaf]

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Allocations. As the market goes up the rule is to be fully invested. However, I think other things should be considered. Maybe, a lot of other things.

1. I'm getting close to retirement, so I'm a little more conservative.
2. This month: C=+.18, S=+.33, and I=+.21.
3. Today the Dollar was up +0.0012
4. Crude is on the rise: <50=no worry, 50-55=worry, >55=excited.
5. Major market Tech indicators are rising (CMF, RSI, MACD, STO).
6. The market is still within a trading range. Fundamentals (economics) are good.
7. Sentiment is somewhat mixed, with some worry out there.
8. We still have the 4 hr - 2 day transfer hold to get out of Dodge.

I have some doubts about the I fund, short term its a buy, overall a hold. However the dollar could be coming up. Thus not worth the risk, now. Otherwise, 40% is generally my max allocation to a particular fund that I can't exit real quick.

Still think the checking of the AM market is a good idea. If I see a gap up I might increase allocations. A gap down and it's time to don the parachute.

Rgds, and good hunting! Spaf

PS excuse the edit, spellck is offf!

 

[tsptalk]

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Spaf wrote:

Still think the checking of the AM market is a good idea. If I see a gap up I might increase allocations. A gap down and it's time to don the parachute.

Don't forget that early money is "emotional" money. I wouldn't put too much faith in the direction of the first 30 to 60 minutes. I'd rather see a lower opening and a strong close.

 

[Spaf]

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Sorry Tom.... I should have been more specific. I was not refering to common gaps. Rather to continuation gaps. i.e., a continuation gap or acceleration gap can occur within a uptrend as we have now. When the opening price of the current opening is above the high of the prior closing price, this gap usually indicates that the trend is very strong. This type of gap can occur in uptrends and ...down trends.

Didn't mean to mislead anyone, when the market closes high and tomorrow shows a gap up, I tend to say "Oh boy"!

The first 30-60 minutes I agree can be iffy. Thats when I get my coffee!

Rgds! Spaf

 

[The_Technician]

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Well, I'm really waiting for the Wal Mart report due Thursday.....(then comes Friday the 13th :s.....don't get me wrong, I hope it doesn't affect the market)........since WM handles a broad range of products, you can tell how people are spending their money they have left over after all the essential expenses....:X

I bet the general populationis spending whats left onmostly food......other products could just be sitting on the shelf.....:shock:.....and people are doing without....hey, go sit at the exit at Wal Mart one day and see who is buying what.....then you know first hand! I know the auto industry is suffering big time!!! Housing cost's is skyrocketing!!!

Oil is up, people are a scraping.....and that means.....uhhhhh.....I'd rather not think it..........of course I could be wrong about it all.....what do you think, and don't kid yourself, make sure you are not just wishful thinking????

Another thought

Lets all buy Yuan's, because just as soon as the Yuan is independent of the dollar, even Wal Marts great low prices on Chinese products will inflate!!!:shock: Can you imagine that! Almost every thing we buy is from the land of Yuan.....and the Yuan could easily inflate 100% which, would put the final nail in our economy coffin- higherinflation! China has control.....and we let them get that way.......we need to get a another cheapproduct provider!!!!:^ Maybe Africa!!!

Like I said some time ago....first the market was a good play for years, then energy was next because it was low to enhance the economy (market), now since those two are over with, currency is next....and the Yuan is getting alot of attention from our bud ......Greenspud......maybe there is a reason......(seems systematic don't it)

Oh, another day, another dollar, just in time for us all toholler.....

The Technician:dude:

 

[learning]

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Is it my computer or is it the page? The page is getting wider and harder to read. In the past it seemed it was when people would put up a large piture or graph. I see none here soperhaps it is just my system.

 

[Rod]

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learning wrote:

Is it my computer or is it the page? The page is getting wider and harder to read. In the past it seemed it was when people would put up a large piture or graph. I see none here soperhaps it is just my system.

Mine'sjust fine. Must be your PC.