Market Talk / October 8th - 14th

HUUUUmmmm!:mad:
Nuke test yields market jitters
Asia markets rattled by news from N. Korea, overshadows multi-billion dollar bank deal and reported Cablevision offer.
October 9 2006: 7:39 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Street was unsettled Monday after North Korea jolted the international community by saying it tested a nuclear weapon.
Stock futures, which are an indication of where U.S. markets are likely to open, were down in early trading.

North Korea claimed it conducted a successful underground nuclear test Monday, according to the country's official Korean Central News Agency. The U.S. government said it was looking into the tests but believed the claims to be true.
Stocks in Asia fell on the news, with South Korea's main stock index tumbling 2.4 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index losing more than 1 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock index was closed for a holiday.
The dollar reached eight-month highs against Japan's yen.
Investors in Europe were less upset by the Korean tests, and stocks were mixed in early trading.
Oil rose above $60 a barrel on the renewed geopolitical fears. U.S. crude gained 80 cents to $60.56 in early electronic trade, while Brent rose $1.02 to $60.85.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/09/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?cnn=yes
 
And this too shall pass. We just had the best third quarter in 9 years. The market is making a statement - earnings by Thompson are projected to be in the 16 to 17% range. This is higher than Wall Street consensus, with the majority looking for on a good day 14%. Many others anticipate in the 10% range. This has been going on now for 13 quarters, or 39 months, or 3 years. I'm in line for the payoff.
 
Looks like the bull wants to break to the downside today to show sympathy towards those that have missed the current ride. But it's only a head fake. The A/D line looks good today - I think, at least it feels good with pin action.
 
The one thing I would like to point out is that DESPITE North Korea touching off a nuclear device, the broader market doesn't seem to care.

How about that?
G.W. holds a press conference denoucing the test, and then the network switches back 2 minutes later to focus on the impact the Foley story is having on Republicans. Huh? The Foley story is STILL more important that the North Koreans detonating a nuclear bomb? ? ?

What does it mean?

North Korea tests a nuclear device, the evening before a quasi-light market day. Trading is light becuase so many places are on holiday today in the US - but even so, there is barely a ripple in trading.

If Kim Jong Il wanted to make an impact on America, he missed his chance. The markets barely noticed. Barely even a dent. And now the "S" is even UP a bit.

Incredible, if you ask me.

I'll take it. I'm 100% in "S" right now.

Go "S" GO!
 
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Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP

Daily Edition
October 9, 2006 Closing

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Socks limped, but ending higher.

Con-Yak...................................OPEC to cut production to boost prices.

Jester-Yak................................A day of indecision!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1350.663, up +1.08
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.252, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+9.462/8.476, converging.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............decreasing at +0.936.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........93.85, decreasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 69.21 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................59.96, up +0.20
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1340. Trail: 1327.
 
I put my ear to the rail this evening and sure enough I could hear them. There is a massive stampede of bull hoofs headed this way. And guess what that will do to the cheapest stock market of any time since this secular bull market lifted off in 1980? C'mon Flash Gordon you know the answer.
 
my best guesses from the market acton today should come out about here on the numbers. TSP didn't post updated share prices, but I thnk they are about like this:

"G" Fund = 11.59 +.01

"F" Fund = 11.00 +.02

"C" Fund = 14.87 +.01

"S" Fund = 17.57 + .09

"I" Fund = 20.29 + .01

That's just a rough estimate.

See you tomorrow. Looks to be a good day tomorrow.
 
MARKET COMMENT

October 9, 2006

It’s another one of those market days when geo-political risks don’t scare anyone. Kim’s weird and, as such, is scary. (Question: “Is the photo above the “October Surprise”?) Is Kim just about the money to keep his Stalinist regime propped-up? Will he sell weaponry to rogue states? Investors didn’t seem to care much today as they set the comic strip character aside and pushed markets slightly higher in light trading.

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php
 
The "Poison Dwarf" is cuckoo, and he does oversee a totalitarian regime, but I am not sure how many of his Generals are ready to die for him. I believe there is a strong probability one or two would do whatever it takes to keep him from pulling the trigger. I also believe he is much more afraid of China and Japan than he is of the U.S.

JMHO

Dell
 
Whoa there, the Transports are bucking the trend this morning. Up 76.76 to 4658.32, only another 300 to confirm the Dow Industrials.
 
Is it me or was this just posted today?

The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Monday, October 10th, in observance of Columbus Day. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 9th) will be processed Tuesday night (October 10th), at Tuesday's closing share prices.
 
When deep in a bull market and you are faced with selfdoubt and you will encounter it think about this: Bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. And the best trades will always tend to be the ones in which your stomach churns. Choo-Choo....bye, bye.
 
Is it me or was this just posted today?

The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Monday, October 10th, in observance of Columbus Day. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 9th) will be processed Tuesday night (October 10th), at Tuesday's closing share prices.

I was not there yesterday!
 
What should we expect? Thanks TSP.gov........once again your on the ball! LOL

Is it me or was this just posted today?

The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Monday, October 10th, in observance of Columbus Day. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 9th) will be processed Tuesday night (October 10th), at Tuesday's closing share prices.
 
Oh kiss me Kate. My fear is that this might just be April 2003. Take another look at the DP graph Tom showed from the 2002 bottom. Everyone has a reason not to get on and I have no reason yet to get off. That's what makes a market. But I know I'm due for a quick buzz cut soon, no matter.
 
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