Market Talk / October 8th - 14th

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A small plane with New York Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle aboard crashed into a 50-story condominium tower Wednesday on Manhattan's Upper East Side, killing at least four people and raining flaming debris on sidewalks, authorities said.
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP​

Daily Edition
October 11, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Lube down to 57.59.

Con-Yak...................................Socks slump on worries about rates and earnings.

Jester-Yak................................A new lube low!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1349.95, dn -3.47
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.223, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+8.891/8.721, at crossing.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............decreasing at +0.169.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........93.65, flat.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 66.79 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................57.59, dn -0.93
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1340. Trail: 1327.
 
mayday said:
Did you notice how the market flatlined after the news of that plane hitting so close to Manhattan. Makes you wonder if it was a terrorist attack and what they were really aimming for.
Click to expand...

When I read the excellent discussion in the "Some negative comments on the site" thread and this seemingly random incident about this Manhattan plane crash, and its immediate impact on the market, I really have to take pause and consider if playing my retirement fund in my present mode is a wise decision. I do like the empowerment I have to move my money out of a downward trend into capital preservation if I’m vigilant and wise enough to see and catch the market’s movement. At the same time, what if I move too much and miss an opportunity to increase my bottom line. I think for my situation, my knowledge about what’s the right thing to do, and my desire/greed to increase my bottom line that I may be headed down a road best not traveled.

I’m confused.

I was trying to take an active roll with my account by joining a program called TSP Max. Don’t get me wrong, I had my best interest at heart with no understanding about what I was doing or why.

After finding this site, I found that with a little knowledge and understanding about the market, current events and trends, I could and have done much better then blindly following the allocations recommended by TSP Max. I think the biggest draw TSP Max had for me was the implication about taking emotion out of the equation. So far I’ve discovered that the market is as equally about emotion as it is about it’s past, ergo it’s randomness.
 
Sometimes you just have to stand up and take the body blows. It's not a perfect system especially when you are in competition with 50 million Frenchman, but it may be better than an egg farm. Yesterday was only a small market blind side and it benefited me because I bought stock just as it was falling - I placed the order and got swept up in the stream. Some days are like that. Now if I could just nail the next 200 point up day - I wouldn't mind a few more body blows, they come with the territory.
 
AIF, the plane crash was a random incident that moved the market. However, the action that follows such an event is not so random. Take September 11 as an example. The market fell 13% following that event. If you had moved your money to the C-fund as quickly as possible, you would have only lost 5%. You may have not picked the exact moment to get back in the market but say you got back in after a couple percent rise, you could have still avoided half the drop.

That being said, if you want to be aggressive but are unwilling to watch the market close enough, or educate yourself on the market, or be disciplined in an approach, I suggest taking the same route as Desperado. Use a very aggressive buy and hold strategy...if you have years to go till retirement.
 
Perhaps you are prescient - 12,000 is doubly doable and it would mean there would be bear carcass all over the rails. So many wounded bears - serves them right. I may have to revise my year end target - I was satisfied with 12,600. How does 13,600 sound pulling it out of my heineken.
 
Less than an hour to go... and a BIG up day today!

Wilshire 4500 (S) +1.12%
S&P 500 (C) +0.87%
Morgan Int (I) +0.98%
AGG (F) +0.05%


Snnnnooorrrrttt!
 
Things are difinitely looking like a soft landing. But that could change as we move forward. Biggest concern the fed's have right now is growing wage pressures and low unemployment. In other words, there are jobs openings that are not being filled so employers have to raise wages.
 
Last edited:
Birchtree,

Nice rally again today my friend. You can get some of my money again next week I shorted the QQQQ's again (QID) and everytime I do it's been pain!!!


Still in the G Fund. This has been a nice run for those that have stayed long.

Tough to pick tops, but it is coming. Still some more Bears to squeeze first, but many are starting to throw in the towel. My short could get stopped out, but I'm going for it and looking for better long set-ups. This is starting to remind me of May. I know it's different this time. Well, maybe it really is. It will be tough to get a 50% retracement of the current rally if we get a pullback, but the risk is there. I'm not saying being invested in the market right now is bad. Just that the Risk/Reward is increasing.

Is there really a Goldilocks? The CNBC folks keep talking about it daily.


http://www.dltk-kids.com/rhymes/goldilocks_story.htm
 
Griffin said:
Robo,

great point....check this out

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/mauldin082006.html

Desperado/Birchtree

Here is a trading strategy written by someone I assume to have a sub 50 IQ but something to ponder -

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/020404.asp

This garbage is why I time :D
Click to expand...

Griffin,

Thanks for the link! Your TA work has been excellent. Keep posting your thoughts and work.

Sentiment Trader pointed out that the SPY has now closed above its open for eight consecutive days. According to his data, this has happened only twice before in its decade-long history. Both occurred when the S&P was breaking to new yearly highs, and both were quite poor times to be trying to buy into the rally. He commented the S&P 500 was down more than 3% over the next few weeks both times.

He has a great sevice for data and facts for those that don't mind paying for it. I think it's worth it. I also love my SharkFolio!

http://www.sentimentrader.com/
 
Griffin,

I read the article on timing. "It is far easier to make money in a secular than cyclical bull market". This is exactly my mantra so to speak for the last 2 years. Buy and hold works if stocks are going to rise steadily for several years. Luckily, sometimes the soundest approach is the simplest. It would be wise to remember the current bull market is the fifth longest - but that will be changing shortly.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
Robo,

The more risk the greater the reward. We are in a melt-up situation and I've been waiting a long time for its' arrival. Only two Fed districts reported that growth cooled compared to five in the September 6 report. The Goldilocks story lives no inflation problems or recession scenario. We should get another momentum move tomorrow especially if the MCOs are moving up.

And the sad story from my perspective as a BULL is that many are standing aside looking over their shoulders from past experience waiting for a pull back. It ain't coming and this move is slipping through their fingers. That to me is the greater risk - you have to be in to win. Well idiot maybe everyone is still waiting on the 4 year low that is due - dah. Well not my business.
 
Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP​

Daily Edition
October 12, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................The up trend seems to be chugging along!

Con-Yak...................................She's got maximum steam.

Jester-Yak................................Uh oh!

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1362.83, up +12.88
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........+0.253, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+9.687/8.915, diverging.
............ (MACD) (Hist)..............increasing at +0.773.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........95.49, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 72.52 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................57.86, up +0.27
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles..............................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position....................................100% G.
Stops [$SPX].............................Alert: 1349. Trail: 1336.
 
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