Market Talk / October 8th - 14th

[Birchtree]

There she was just a walkin down the street singing doo a diddy ....12,000 for you, 12,000 for you. It may be up to GE to spark the continuation. Look at all the lonely bears, where have they gone to, the bear cave for the winter. Retail sales may be the surprise today. Go Gators! Snort.

 

[Griffin]

Griffin,
"It is far easier to make money in a secular than cyclical bull market".

Dennis - permabull #1

That was the one useful piece of information to be gleaned from that article. However, anyone who uses a buy and sell signal that could potentially keep them out of the market for 5 to 10 years at a time....is clueless.

 

[weatherweenie]

There she was just a walkin down the street singing doo a diddy ....12,000 for you, 12,000 for you. It may be up to GE to spark the continuation. Look at all the lonely bears, where have they gone to, the bear cave for the winter. Retail sales may be the surprise today. Go Gators! Snort.

General Electric reports in-line; guides in-line (GE) 36.22 : Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.49 per share, in line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.49; revenues rose 12.3% year/year to $40.86 bln vs the $39.8 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY06, sees EPS of $1.97-1.99 vs. $1.98 consensus.

 

[weatherweenie]

More importantly, it's Friday the 13th today.

 

[weatherweenie]

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $366.2 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent (±0.7%)* from the previous month, but up 5.5 percent (±0.7%) from September 2005. Total sales for the July through September 2006 period were up 5.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2006 percent change was revised from +0.2 percent (± 0.7%)* to +0.1 percent (± 0.3%)*. Retail trade sales were down 0.6 percent (±0.7%)* from August, but were 5.2 percent (±0.8%) above last year. Nonstore retailers were up 12.9 percent (±4.6%) from September 2005 and sales of clothing and clothing accessories stores were up 10.7 percent (±1.5%) from last year.

 

[ATCJeff]

Hold on....

September may have been down, but that included a drop of ~9% in sales at gas stations. So really the consumer is speading more money.

 

[ATCJeff]

Birch you will like this....

Talking head on CNBC said we are setting up for a chase scenario. He looks for the market to accelerate in the fourth quarter.

Forget 12,000. 13,000 here we come!

Snort Snort

 

[ATCJeff]

Tom wrote in his market comments....

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came back this week with 49% bulls, 38% bears. That 38% is still pretty high, but off the extreme 46% we had last week. It's just amazing to me that there is still that much bearishness with what the market has done. Normally the herd would be jumping head first into stocks. That's the one thing that scares me about being on the sidelines right now.

Could it be that the 38% bearish number is because May is still fresh in peoples minds. I'm sure alot of people felt the pain that Mr. Market dished out on that pull back.

 

[weatherweenie]

Tom wrote in his market comments....

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey came back this week with 49% bulls, 38% bears. That 38% is still pretty high, but off the extreme 46% we had last week. It's just amazing to me that there is still that much bearishness with what the market has done. Normally the herd would be jumping head first into stocks. That's the one thing that scares me about being on the sidelines right now.

Could it be that the 38% bearish number is because May is still fresh in peoples minds. I'm sure alot of people felt the pain that Mr. Market dished out on that pull back.

I know that's what kept me on the sidelines, until today of all days, through the week. I got in last Friday, only to get scared off by its drop. Then went to the G for Mon-Thurs.

 

[weatherweenie]

FWIW, 10yr bond yield is 4.8020%

0.0200 (0.42%)

 

[Pilgrim]

Birch you will like this....

Talking head on CNBC said we are setting up for a chase scenario. He looks for the market to accelerate in the fourth quarter.

Forget 12,000. 13,000 here we come!

Snort Snort

Remember that old plotline "What if they gave a correction and nobody came?"

 

[Pilgrim]

Two reports just out: Business inventories about as expected and consumer sentiment up, higher than expected. The market seems to have reacted negatively.

What am I missing? Why would it go down in response to an improvemnt in sentiment??

 

[weatherweenie]

Two reports just out: Business inventories about as expected and consumer sentiment up, higher than expected. The market seems to have reacted negatively.

What am I missing? Why would it go down in response to an improvemnt in sentiment??

Profit taking from the runup this past week.

 

[FundSurfer]

What am I missing? Why would it go down in response to an improvemnt in sentiment??

Buy the rumor, sell the news....

 

[Birchtree]

I'm such a nervous bull today - and I should be calm. I'm frozen in time regardless - so I'm going to hand wash and wax the girlie car this morning so I can relax. The only question I really have to deal with is how much of yesterday will I have to give back today. The R2K is counter-trend right now and that will help smooth the portfolio. I'm actually looking to make only half of yesterday today. It's been a good while since I've had the pleasure of a melt-up. There will be pauses to refresh and today may be one, otherwise the car needs TLC.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[James48843]

the "G" fund should pay the penny on Monday. Do we move here, now?

 

[James48843]

By the way- please take time to take the "sentiment survey" on the index page. Your vote counts.

 

[AIF]

If it pays on Monday why not wait until Monday?

 

[VirginiaBob]

because you'll be buying it after it already gained the penny. You want to buy today so you get the penny, and sell on Monday.

 

[AIF]

So would that not mean that the penny gets paid today? If I go in before noon on Monday I thought I bought at Fridays close and money gained or lost depened on Mondays close.