Market Talk / May 7 - 13

[TiCKed]

I may give in to temptation this evening.

I'm tempted to jump to 100% G/F for the FED announcement on Wednesday, only to buy back soon after.

Sure, a 1/4 point rise is almost guranteed, and therefore there SHOULD be no reaction from the masses when it occurrs. However, if my failing memory serves, that wasn't the case last time. The guranteed 1/4 point was announced, and stocks took a dump for a day or two, only to recover over the next couple weeks.

Should I or shouldn't I? Guess it depends on how bored I get this evening since the Mighty Ducks aren't playing.

 

[James48843]

prices just posted:


C FUND 14.47

S FUND 18.27

I FUND 20.84


Nice.

I see the Nikkei took a slight hit at the open tonight, and the dollar appears to have firmed ever so slightly. This may be the break I am expecting.

With the "I" fund up a whole dollar (5%)since April 20th, there has to be a breather in here someplace.

 

[Quips]

Interesting read:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/09/business/09fed.html?_r=1&oref=login

It talks about US interest rates and how things may increase there even after the Fed stops its own rate hikes.

 

[The_Technician]

correction across the board...

Nearest I can tell we're in for some what of a correction for C, S and I...can't tell how severe....could go slow or quick....F is debatable.....in all cases we're at a short term top.....so we should expect somewhat of a short term correction....

 

[Pilgrim]

Maybe not for I-fund. Premarket is up 0.17%, and the dollar just spiked downward against the Euro, into negative territory, for reasons that I can't find. Just a momentary spike or did something happen??

 

[James48843]

I don't believe it, but the dollar is tanking AGAIN. What momentum!

I thought it would level off, it showed signs of leveling off yesterday and this morning. But it just headed south once more.

And the FSTE 100 is UP about half-a-percent.

Even though the Nikkie 225 is down slightly, the falling dollar makes up for the down, and overall the "I" fund looks, very much, like it continues to plow full steam ahead.

So I am cancelling my trade out of "I" this morning, and continuing on as before.

Can you believe the weakness of this dollar? Where will it end? ? ?

 

[Pilgrim]

Tomorrow is a crap shoot for the dollar. Commentators are saying that if Bernake comes across soft, the dollar will tank; if he comes out like a hawk, dollar will sharply rebound. Betting on I-fund for tomorrow is like flipping a coin.

 

[Wizard]

I don't believe it, but the dollar is tanking AGAIN. What momentum!

The day before a rate hike.

Got gold? Up 17.30. :nuts:

Shorted the indexes on Friday.

Booyah.

 

[Wizard]

Tomorrow is a crap shoot for the dollar. Commentators are saying that if Bernake comes across soft, the dollar will tank; if he comes out like a hawk, dollar will sharply rebound. Betting on I-fund for tomorrow is like flipping a coin.

He needs to go .50 and be very hawkish in the statement.

If not, waterfall for USD.

The Guy With Worthless Investment Info.

 

[learning]

The “I” fund is acting like the Energizer Eveready Bunny! What a ride.

 

[Dave M]

Currency Flows

Does anyone here have a means of tracking the currency flows involved? How massive are they? The currency traders can make nice profits on very small margins due to the large volumes they trade. So who is making all the profit these days?

Dave

 

[Spartan]

There are underlying conditions causing the dollar to fall. The market almost always reacts BEFORE the newsbreak, so by the time you have heard it for sure, its too late to act. The dollar drifting lower is all the signal I need, BB Bernanke will just reiterate what many already know... We are coming to a pause, or an end, of the rate hike cycle. Last time I saw the dollar drift like this was in 1995 when it lost over 20% vs. other currencies.

 

[The_Technician]

I really hate situations such as today/tomorrow....dang thing is too high, and could go higher.....but it all depends on what you don't know....and its seems too risky.....more than not it will correct.....:blink:

If the dollar tanks, we're in for it as a country......seeing how our leaders of our country have sold us out over the years.....I wouldn't doubt it would happen.........it could spread quickly world wide.....wonder how China would fare being that their currency is tied to the dollar.......worthless is worthless...:worried:

Buy Gold!!!:nuts:

 

[Wimpy]

There are underlying conditions causing the dollar to fall. The market almost always reacts BEFORE the newsbreak, so by the time you have heard it for sure, its too late to act. The dollar drifting lower is all the signal I need, BB Bernanke will just reiterate what many already know... We are coming to a pause, or an end, of the rate hike cycle. Last time I saw the dollar drift like this was in 1995 when it lost over 20% vs. other currencies.

There is no doubt the powers that be want the dollar to fall as evidenced by the pause. The problem they have right now is controlling the rate of the dollar's descent. They dare not risk losing control of the downhill runaway dollar train. Raising rates, at some point in time, will be the braking mechanism the Fed will use to control the dollar train's descent.

The real wakeup call few of us have ever experienced is when the rates go up, up, and up and the dollar continues to fall, fall, and then fall some more. Happened before around the 79-81 time frame. Those having never experienced this phenomenon will be scratching their heads. They've never been on a downhill runaway dollar train when the brakes failed.

The gold price touching $700 today is symbolic of screaming passengers riding this runaway dollar train. We can hear their screams and take action to protect ourselves, by purchasing gold and silver, or we can continue on our merry way. Ain't freedom grand?

 

[Spaf]

Caution vs Risk

Some folks going to I, some going to G.

Is missing out on a possible advance worth the risk?

Do you have the time to make up for a sharp pull-back.

TSP is a saving account that takes a day or two to effect an interfund transfer. It's not a trader account.

Stock prices are on high. Buying should be on the low side.

Energy is very volatile at the current time.

FOMC news is pending.

We are outside of the best market months.

Rgds and be careful....................:blink: ..................Spaf

 

[The_Technician]

Historically the DJIA

makes another correction (2nd) after a peak is reached like in 2000...we had one in 2002 and we could have another 5 or so years later 2007....just look at the historical data and you will see similar patterns around 1938 through the mid 40's....and then again in the 70's......but this time Wimpy brings up a good point....do we have the same scenario for high interest rates (during Carter years).....we very well might...I don't remember the details of the national debt back then though......high interest rates will stop this economy dead in its tracks...thus affecting the world economy.....one other thing take a look at the volume traded in the last couple of years on the DJIA verses the past 30 years.....its enormous, you would think that with this kind of vol you would have an everlasting gobstopper going....but its struggling to make a new high in the last 6 years.....kinda tells you something....world economics trying to expand too fast.....and its self modulating its growth.....

Something to ponder and act upon.....maybe the gold guys have it made for a while....they did in the 70's...

 

[Spartan]

Caution vs Risk

Some folks going to I, some going to G.

Is missing out on a possible advance worth the risk?

Do you have the time to make up for a sharp pull-back.

TSP is a saving account that takes a day or two to effect an interfund transfer. It's not a trader account.

Stock prices are on high. Buying should be on the low side.

Energy is very volatile at the current time.

FOMC news is pending.

We are outside of the best market months.

Rgds and be careful....................:blink: ..................Spaf

Trend is your friend right? Then lets bet on it and let the dice fall where they may. Tomorrow is unique, the news comes out at 2pm. Which means you wont be able to lock in market prices until the next day, if you trade off of what the news is. The market can move a lot in a couple days. Risk vs. Reward though. If Big Ben is hawkish, I fund may lose a percent or two, but even then, EAFE markets are still moving up. If he is dovish or pauses here, the dollar will lose more than a couple percent, tomorrow alone. So I figure the range could be between -3% and +4%.

I will rely on trend, because the market always has information that I am not privy to

 

[Wimpy]

Caution vs Risk

Some folks going to I, some going to G.

Is missing out on a possible advance worth the risk?

Do you have the time to make up for a sharp pull-back.

TSP is a saving account that takes a day or two to effect an interfund transfer. It's not a trader account.

Stock prices are on high. Buying should be on the low side.

Energy is very volatile at the current time.

FOMC news is pending.

We are outside of the best market months.

Rgds and be careful....................:blink: ..................Spaf

Spaf,

I can appreciate what you are saying here, BUT it ignores the RISK of being in the dollar. Yes, a person will get all the dollars they have in their G-Fund account, but the REAL question is purchasing power. Will those ?SAFE? dollars in the G-Fund retain purchasing power? If that G-Fund purchasing power goes down 20%, isn't that RISKY as well? It is certainly more risk than I want.

 

[Master]

Spaf,
Those who are retired or close to retirement are more concerned with capital preservation. Those of us who have 20+ years to retirement are more risk-taking. The other dicotomy is how much is in the account to begin with. However, time to retirement highly co-vary with size of account.
My TSP account is only 17.32% of my IRAs, I was hedging the past couple of days (as I was 97% in International stocks), but I am back to what I believe is the long-term.
Best,
M

 

[Spaf]

Thanks guys,......

I just gotta stur da pot ever so often!.....

If I jumped in right now, we would have a correction of at least 5%.....:cheesy: