Market Talk/March 12-18, 2006

[Spaf]

The Kingdom of TSP
Sunday-Weekly
Early Edition
Mar. 12, 2006​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Still in trading range*! [$SPX] +/- 1300-1250.
Other Yak...............................Lube on a marker of 62.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1281.58, dn -5.65, for the week.
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.185, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+1.28, decreasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........30.90, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 51.35 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................61.84, dn -1.38, for the week.
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow*.
Attachment.............................S&P chart.

Tin Box:
Position..................................100%G
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: NA

TSP (week ending)......G=11.25..F=10.62..C=13.96..S=17.07..I=18.50
....(1 week past)........G=11.24..F=10.65..C=14.02..S=17.36..I=18.56
....(2 week past)........G=11.23..F=10.69..C=14.04..S=17.31..I=18.60
....(3 week past)........G=11.22..F=10.69..C=14.01..S=17.18..I=18.29

 

[The_Technician]

Looks like a peak

being drawn.....is the market selling off and end of month going to the dogs????

Frankly I haven't had a chance to really look it over, maybe I will get a chance and comment later this week....

Vacation is very occupying.....

Have a good week all...

 

[Spaf]

Re: Looks like a peak

being drawn.....is the market selling off and end of month going to the dogs????

Tech,
I think the market is kind of stuck in the mud! On the up side, about 1300 [$SPX] the market runs into resistance. On the down side about 1250 is the support level. However, higher lows may place that number around 1260. Someone needs to call for a tow truck (a catalyst) to break free of the trading range. Otherwise, all I see is being range bound. Accordingly, it's not a good rule to play range bound stocks. Put the $ in something thats advancing. In some respects that could be the G-Fund or your trader cash account (that gets a small %) or find a better fund.
Kind of like fishing! We are over a bunch of turtles; they are just going to eat your minnows, and all you will get is a sunburn.
Rgds, and be careful!............. ..............Spaf

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 13, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Socks take low ground as lube rises.
Other Yak...............................Lube jumps 3% on Iran heat.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1284.12, up +2.55
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.150, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+1.44, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........37.37, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 52.90 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................63.67, up +1.83
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position..................................100%G
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: NA

 

[Birchtree]

That lawn sure does look greener over there

but coveting thy neighbors lawn is not my style - his car is a different matter however. That I fund surely looks tempting but I prefer to munch on my dull dry hay - be careful of the $.58 blind side that may be around the corner gentleman. That's the max damage potential that can happen in one day. Otherwise I am envious of my wife - she owns international. Got to keep my greed factor in control.

Dennis

 

[Spaf]

Re: That lawn sure does look greener over there

but coveting thy neighbors lawn is not my style. Got to keep my greed factor in control.

Dennis

Dennis, your right! But....U got a good strategy going.

Just as sure as you find a hole in the fence, here comes the dang-burn bush-hog..........Spaf

 

[bkrownd]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

I keep waiting for the -5% correction to start, but it's not happening. :/

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

I keep waiting for the -5% correction to start, but it's not happening. :/

We need a catalyst! Good or bad to get us out of this trading range! Then we can play.................Patience.....:worried:..... patience!

Rgds, and be careful............. ...........Spaf

 

[JOVARN]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

bkrownd. I keep waiting for the -5% correction to start, but it's not happening.

I found this quote this am anyone care to comment on it.
"The dollar was also pressured by concerns over a possible -$200 Billion Current Account deficit due out later today at 13:30 GMT and overnight dovish comments by SF Fed President Janet Yellen who noted that the Fed should be careful to not overshoot by raising short term interest rate too high. At 8:13 GMT USD/JPY was trading at 118.54 lower than the 118.75 Monday’s close in New York.

I believe the feds hold their finger on the Market catalyst. We have weathered Oil at 65$, Hurricanes, Japan Scandal, Our own scandals, Rising bond rates, Rising gold rates.

There are only two items left to correct before boarding starts on the newly formed Birchtree airline, destination BULL ORBIT. Until then we all need to take the rollercoaster ride, if you like rollercoaster’s.
Iran and the Feds have both feet firmly planted on the brakes of the space craft.

 

[JOVARN]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

While we are chasing nickels and dimes take a look at this site.
Hit the (show more) tab and see more results.
http://www.morningstar.co.uk/markets/markets.asp?market_id=4&curiso=GBP&lang=EN&country=GB&univ=UK1

I wonder if it would be prudent to draw some cash out of the TSP and invest in some of the emerging markets listed.
I am figuring it would future diversify my retirement portfolio. Other then paying back the interest to the while paying back the loan, and the mutual taking a Hugh hit; what are some of the other down sides??

 

[Oaktree]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

bkrownd. I keep waiting for the -5% correction to start, but it's not happening.

I found this quote this am anyone care to comment on it.
"The dollar was also pressured by concerns over a possible -$200 Billion Current Account deficit due out later today at 13:30 GMT and overnight dovish comments by SF Fed President Janet Yellen who noted that the Fed should be careful to not overshoot by raising short term interest rate too high. At 8:13 GMT USD/JPY was trading at 118.54 lower than the 118.75 Monday’s close in New York.

I believe the feds hold their finger on the Market catalyst. We have weathered Oil at 65$, Hurricanes, Japan Scandal, Our own scandals, Rising bond rates, Rising gold rates.

There are only two items left to correct before boarding starts on the newly formed Birchtree airline, destination BULL ORBIT. Until then we all need to take the rollercoaster ride, if you like rollercoaster’s.
Iran and the Feds have both feet firmly planted on the brakes of the space craft.

It is like they have the stock market on a string first they pull the oil string then the interest rate string, makes me sick!

 

[Spaf]

Out of sinc.

I thought that there was something wrong!

How can the fundamentals be strong and the technicals so weak. If the economy is growing then why is the stock market stuck in a trading range?

Is it interest rates? Energy? Whats keeping the socks from rising?...:worried:

Iran and the Fed (Cartel)?.........

 

[Birchtree]

October'06 cycle low?

Everyone knows about it and are on the verge of jumping off the cliff - me I'm looking across the valley. The Fed may do one and done - retail sales not helping the positives, the Fed wants negatives and the more the better. Somebody dumped miracle grow on the S&P 500 this morning. All these companies are buying each other before they get more expensive - preempting the coming earnings surprises that will drive the market up. Historically, as long as the 10 year rate remains below the 7% level, it has always had a positive effect on stock prices. This expansion (global) has many years to go before a recession sets in again.

 

[Birchtree]

My poor tired bear paws

We now have a new all-time high once again in the NYSE composite and the AMEX composite - providing we hold the line. The S&P 500 only needs to cross and hold 1294.18. The NYAD is also probably at a new all-time high again.

The global markets are unprecedented, this is a global economic bull and very stable. This is not what we would be seeing moving into the nesting of the 4 year cycle bottom. The 4-year cycle bottom will more than likely take place at higher price levels than where we are at the current time. The character of this market has been impressive, especially broad yesterday and now today, new price pattern breakouts are once again on the way. Keep those hoofs dancing. Thankyou Janet Yellin.

Dennis

 

[Spaf]

Re: October'06 cycle low?

Somebody dumped miracle grow on the S&P 500 this morning.

But will it break out (from the previous high of 1297)? Will the rise of oil futures be too much resistance? What about the Cartel creature (FOMC), is he going to continue eating up the lawn? Always a new supprise!

Rgds.............

..............Spaf​

 

[Wimpy]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

Treasury Studying Risks of “Derivatives Explosion”
www.bloomberg.com
By Kevin Carmichael
March 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury is studying disclosure requirements and financial risks following an explosion'' in the market for derivatives, said undersecretary for domestic finance Randal Quarles.
The Treasury wants ``to ensure that the magnitude of risk and exposure are properly measured and that investors and market participants have full and adequate disclosure upon which they can make informed decisions,'' Quarles said.
------------

US federal deficit rises to record in February
Monday, March 13, 2006 8:09:48 AM ET
newratings.com
NEW YORK, March 13 (newratings.com) - The US federal deficit rose to a record high in February, according to government data published on Friday.
http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1226824.html

---------------
Euro holds firm on prospect of central bank buying
By Katie Hunt
The UAE central bank said on Sunday “it was looking to convert up to 10 percent of its foreign exchange reserves from dollars into euros -- double the target it had previously set. The reserves are estimated at $23 billion in December and are held almost entirely in dollars.”
LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - The euro rose to a one-month high versus the yen and a one-week high against the dollar on Monday, boosted by news that the United Arab Emirates' central bank is considering putting more of its reserves into euros.
http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=2006-03-13T130811Z_01_L13133357_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-5.XML
---------------
Oil Rises After Iran Threatens to Retaliate Against UN Steps
March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Oil rose above $60 a barrel in New York after Iran threatened to retaliate if the United Nations imposes sanctions on OPEC's second-largest producer.
The international community may ``suffer'' if the United Nations imposes sanctions to stop Iran's nuclear research, Interior Minister Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi said March 11. Iran produces more than 4 percent of global oil output.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000102&sid=ag.C06uxNAxg&refer=uk
----------
No negotiations taking place for hostages` release - Militants
Lagos, Nigeria, 03/13 - Nigerian militants holding three foreign oil workers said on Sunday there had been no negotiations for the release of the abducted workers, despite government`s claims that discussions of their release was underway.
"The hostages are going nowhere. There have been no meetings so far between the government and our appointed intermediary," militants of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) told PANA in an e-mail Sunday.
http://www.angolapress-angop.ao/noticia-e.asp?ID=424041
--------------------
Investors flee Iceland banks as economy heads towards forecast 'hard landing'
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Filed: 14/03/2006)
Iceland's banks were pummelled yesterday as the Nordic economy lurched into its third week of crisis, flashing an ominous early-warning signal for markets worldwide.
The krona tumbled another 3pc against the US dollar and is now down almost 18pc this year, a victim of "hot money" flight by investors scrambling for the exit doors at the same time. Reykjavik's blue-chip stock index was down 3.3pc.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/03/14/cnice14.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2006/03/14/ixcity.html
--------
Syrian bank 'blacklisted' by US
Syrian had already ordered its officials to make transactions in euros
The US has imposed sanctions on the Commercial Bank of Syria, forcing all US banks to sever ties with the group. The US Treasury Department said it had made the decision as the bank had been used to move terrorist cash and launder money from "illicit" Iraqi oil sales.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4795536.stm


Looks good to me:

http://images.picsearch.com/is?284921618543

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks Wimpy

That's the ominous wall of worry the bull market needs to find success. Bull markets do not like company - the more fear the better - keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. Looks like it may be another Dow 5 year high if we don't roll over - shorts will start covering soon. Isn't this week a quad triple witching week? I think the S&P 500 just penetrated the old secondary high of 1294.18. I've mentioned before that the A/D line is not diverting, and its very rare that price will top without A/D divergence. This unfriendly bull wants to see the market move higher, but at the same time, use the wall of worry to keep the majority from participating. When you become bullish it might be time to leave the scene of the accident.

Dennis

 

[mlk_man]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

BREAKING
NEWS Bernanke says 'quite concerned' about budget deficit, cites risk to U.S. living standards, Reuters reports. More soon.

 

[Birchtree]

Could be a blow off top - who cares!

I say spank the monkey and run this thing to Dow 11,200 and Wilshire 5000 to over 13,059, we'll worry about the consequences later. Bleed the shorts. We have time for the bulls to demonstrate they are in charge. As Mr Rosenberg says, "Simply put, the numbers for the economy and inflation do not seem to be compatible with a sustained tightening in Fed policy" Bernanke is concerned about the rapid increases in entitlement spending and the risk to real capital accumulation. Sounds like one and done. Thanks again Janet.

 

[oldschool]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

Seems like the various Fed officials aren't all singing the same tune - maybe just trying to keep us on our toes. Nice up day, but volume not so strong. Maybe institutional investors not buying? Maybe the smart money bought already, so just watching today?