Market Talk/March 12-18, 2006

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
March 14, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Stocks race Lube to resistance level!
Other Yak...............................At another breakout point [$SPX 1297].

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1297.48, up +13.35
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.186, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+2.61, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........65.61, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 60.08 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................65.09, up +1.42
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Yellow.

Tin Box:
Position..................................100%G
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: NA

 

[oldschool]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

Yuan Has Biggest Gain Since Revaluation After Wen's Comments

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- China's yuan had the biggest gain since July's revaluation after Premier Wen Jiabao yesterday said the nation will let demand and supply determine exchange rates.

``It makes a lot of sense for the authorities to allow for more volatility and faster appreciation,'' said Qing Wang, currency strategist at Bank of America in Hong Kong. ``This is consistent with what the authorities have been saying, that they will allow more flexibility in the currency, especially in light of economic and political pressure from the U.S. and European Union.''

The yuan, a denomination of China's currency, the renminbi, strengthened 0.11 percent to 8.0388 against the dollar as of 9:38 a.m. in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

China on July 21 dropped a decade-old peg to the dollar and revalued the yuan by 2.1 percent to 8.11. It also introduced a daily trading band of 0.3 percent.

Wen, at the close of the Chinese parliament's annual meeting yesterday, ruled out a sudden revaluation of the yuan and said China would expand its currency market and allow it to fluctuate.

 

[Birchtree]

Another secular bull believer

Robo,

I came across Nodoodahs on Marketthoughts.com and he is sayinhg we are currently in a 20-year secular bull since 1986.
www.nodoodahs.blogspot.com/2006/03/more-bull-riding.html. Henry should be ready to cover his shorts tomorrow.

Dennis

 

[Quips]

Re: October'06 cycle low?

Historically, as long as the 10 year rate remains below the 7% level, it has always had a positive effect on stock prices. This expansion (global) has many years to go before a recession sets in again.

Yet historically the debt level has never been this high; it will be interesting to see what 7% interest rates do to consumers carrying this much debt.

If productivity and take home pay increases as a result there won't be a problem, but if both stagnate, there will be.

I don't know what sense it makes to hold stock or bond mutual funds in currencies other than the dollar except for the purpose of diversification/hedge. The dollar remains strong because of foreign buyers of US debt and equities. If the US economy is so risky, it makes better sense for them to keep there money at home or invest in other places other than America.

I've been 80/20 in TSP for some time now ... or more like 10-10-30-30-20.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

Kingdom of TSP
...Breaking News...
March 15, 2006​

BIG FIGHT AT THE TOP OF THE RANGE!

Bears vs Bulls! They fought like kats and dogs, all morning, through lunch.

:blink: About 1 PM CT the Bears packed it in.:cheesy:​

Bulls back in charge for now.

Stay tuned!​

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

Off Topic. I'm hitting the busy thread.

namor set up a ncaa tourny for us at Yahoo. I'm giving a free month of the TSP Timing Newsletter to the winner. See this thread for details.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=39903#post39903

I believe you have until noon ET on Thursday to get in. If you have filled out a bracket somewhere already, it takes just 2 or 3 minutes to input them into Yahoo.

Originally Posted by namor
http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/

Group ID: 38252
Password: tsp

Good luck!

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Mar. 15 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................Breakout! Bulls win range battle!
Other Yak...............................Futures slip in lube.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1303.02, up +5.54
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.160, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+3.94, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........62.63, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 62.63 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................63.84, dn -1.25
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Green.
Attachment.............................S&P 500

Tin Box:
Position..................................100%G
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: 1300

 

[Birchtree]

Gimme more and don't be shy about it

More new recovery highs today in the DJIA and S&P 500, plus an assortment of other indexes at new all-time highs. And few people are on board just as predicted - they seem stunned.

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

The Kingdom of TSP
After the breakout
March 15, 2006​

A breakout can signal the new trend up or down. On the upside [S&P] 6 -13 points or more, and on higher volume.

Exit strategy is the 1300 trailing marker which will float till 2% is reached, then become trailing.

Waiting a day, maybe 2 or 3 to confirm the breakout.

Note: A wave of selling immediately after a breakout is not uncommon.

Rgds and be careful!............... ................Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

Good to see the adrenalin working again

Spaf.

Don't suppose you'd lend me that cash you are holding back in the G fund?

This momentum has the potential to be unprecedented and should hopefuly build upon itself - spring loaded. No looking back. Giddy up go!

Dennis - permabull #2

 

[Rod]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

Spaf,

With you being in (G) for nearly 2 months now, your move into equities on the "high side" was rather surprising.

Is this a "1-day" play for you?

Would hate to see you get caught up in the inevitable "sell-off" that could come at any moment now.

Your thoughts?

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

debt ceiling raised...hear those bernanke chopters warmin up..'whop whop whop'

 

[Spaf]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

Dennis, I'm gonna put some more in when you kick in the thrusters.

Rod, A breakout to the up side was one of two possible conditions I was waiting for. That long period in the trading range served as kind of a correction. Today we got a gap up and later a small pull back. The only spoiler I see is the Lube factor: the spring break gouge, and the worries over Iran. On the bright side lube supplies are up, and the economy is chugging along. A breakout up means that the picture has changed. If I'm all wet, I'll mail my trader book back and ask for a refund. In the meantime I'll watch 1300 as a line in the sand.

Rgds...........Spaf

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
Mar. 16 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Market Yak.............................A slight opening gap, but ending in a gravestone!
Other Yak...............................Uh ho Lube worries are up.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at.............1305.33, up +2.31
Volume (CMF) (money flow)........+0.117, decreasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)...........+5.13, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal)........93.92, increasing.
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold...[70] 63.67 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at................65.10, up +1.26
Oil Markers..............................<64= ok, 64-69= worry, >69= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff..........................Green.

Tin Box:
Position..................................50% Socks
Stops [$SPX]...........................Alert: NA, Trail: 1300

 

[learning]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

"The TSP is actively investigating this matter. In the meantime, it has temporarily suspended the Account Transactions portion of Account Access."


No, No, No... Ohh I hope this is short lived. Could not get into my account. It appears that there is a scam going on. It involves E-Mail. Go see the tsp.gov web sight to learn more. The red Scam icon.

Heads up folks. Never give a pin number and think before you act. :blink:

 

[Gilligan]

Re: Account access

You can access your account thru the thrift line.

Telephone: 1-TSP-YOU-FRST (1-877-968-3778)

http://www.tsp.gov/cgi-bin/byteserver.cgi/forms/tsplf09.pdf

 

[Rod]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

"The TSP is actively investigating this matter. In the meantime, it has temporarily suspended the Account Transactions portion of Account Access."


No, No, No... Ohh I hope this is short lived. Could not get into my account. It appears that there is a scam going on. It involves E-Mail. Go see the tsp.gov web sight to learn more. The red Scam icon.

Heads up folks. Never give a pin number and think before you act. :blink:

Thriftline still works.

Use it to make any transfers.

1-877-968-3778

 

[James48843]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

Details of the TSP E-mail scam at:

http://www.tsp.gov/curinfo/emailscam.html


Looks like someone is trying to phish on this one.

Do you think anyone will fall for it? And I am surpirzed that the TSP people really don't seem very prepared to react to a phishing scam on TSP files.

I guess there is a sucker born every minute....

 

[James48843]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

So I have a question here-

What does TSP accomplish by disabling the "account access" portion of their board?

Unless they reset the passwords for all million plus users, they don't gain any security on the matter. Those who are not "phished" out of their passwords now are stuck.

If TSP account owners passwords really were compromised, THROUGH THEIR OWN FAULT, then the "phisher" will still be able to do the same thing on the phone line.

And if users were smart enough NOT to be "phished" out of thier passwords, the delay in processing time *(I would presume that having hundreds of thousands of phone calls as opposed to electronic internet transfers) will possibly delay the speed at which transactions can occur.

Now, as a guy who here, just a few days ago, observed that if people took their money out of "G" fund, then those nasty politicians in Washington would be on the hook from raiding the G fund while Congress scrambles to get the debt limit raised, I wonder about that angle.

Do you suppose we are seeing "black helicopters" here?

Could it be that so many smart people were taking money out of "G", that the government cracked down by freezing transfers?

I think I will write a good "conspiricy theory" book on this one.


See the recent "Govexec.com" article at:
http://govexec.com/dailyfed/0206/022306pb.htm

and YOU be the judge on what is happening.

 

[James48843]

Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18

Another good reason why Social Security Numbers should not be used by the TSP or any other agency for accounts. ....