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Market Talk/March 12-18, 2006
- Thread starter Spaf
- Start date
Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18
Well it looks my move into the G fund didn't work out too well as the markets continue up for the 6th straight day. AND it looks like a whole bunch of you have joined me for Monday (except you cheapshot). Now the contrarian in me has me wondering if the markets are going to continue to take off without us.
Dave
<><
Well it looks my move into the G fund didn't work out too well as the markets continue up for the 6th straight day. AND it looks like a whole bunch of you have joined me for Monday (except you cheapshot). Now the contrarian in me has me wondering if the markets are going to continue to take off without us.
Dave
<><
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18
Well take a look at what happened.
We were in a trading range for months.
Last week we had a breakout to the upside. And we didn't catch a bull trap.
Lube is high (worry zone) but we are nearing spring break, where the oilmen get greedy. We have plenty of supplies.
Money was leaving the market after the breakout. I don't know why??
The MACD looks good on the charts.
Right now I'm leaning towards Birch's talk of a big bull market.
If things go well next week, I'll up the allocations, in the mean time I'll put a stop at 1300, until 1% or a 13 point trail is established.
The rumblings could be a sign of a pending quake, or it could be a stampeed of bulls?
Rgds, and be careful!...............
.....................Spaf
Well take a look at what happened.
We were in a trading range for months.
Last week we had a breakout to the upside. And we didn't catch a bull trap.
Lube is high (worry zone) but we are nearing spring break, where the oilmen get greedy. We have plenty of supplies.
Money was leaving the market after the breakout. I don't know why??
The MACD looks good on the charts.
Right now I'm leaning towards Birch's talk of a big bull market.
If things go well next week, I'll up the allocations, in the mean time I'll put a stop at 1300, until 1% or a 13 point trail is established.
The rumblings could be a sign of a pending quake, or it could be a stampeed of bulls?
Rgds, and be careful!...............
.....................Spaf
Birchtree
Well-known member
It's a difficult concept to understand
that there is more risk being out than being in - and the higher we go in price appreciation the more difficult it becomes to get in - ask you know who? There has never been a time that the market has topped with the Transports in an uptrend. The risk is that going forward the upside has the potential to be explosive with the decreasing stock float and mounds of liquidity. Bloomberg - Investors Intelligence latest poll found that the pessimisom towards stocks is now higher than it was at the 2003 lows. Heysuse. The NYAD continues to move in all time high territory. And the equity P/C ratio recently was the second lowest in 3 years at .37, until Thursday at .25, now that's a lot of put buyers. There are many indexes that have broken through their declining tops lines - and I could go on to boredom. If you want to win you have to be in.
that there is more risk being out than being in - and the higher we go in price appreciation the more difficult it becomes to get in - ask you know who? There has never been a time that the market has topped with the Transports in an uptrend. The risk is that going forward the upside has the potential to be explosive with the decreasing stock float and mounds of liquidity. Bloomberg - Investors Intelligence latest poll found that the pessimisom towards stocks is now higher than it was at the 2003 lows. Heysuse. The NYAD continues to move in all time high territory. And the equity P/C ratio recently was the second lowest in 3 years at .37, until Thursday at .25, now that's a lot of put buyers. There are many indexes that have broken through their declining tops lines - and I could go on to boredom. If you want to win you have to be in.
Master
Member
Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18
Dennis,
I am as bullish as you are, but 100% I instead of C. I just think that the trade deficit, budget deficit, and sustained high energy prices will take a toll from our economy. I seriously considered TIMING the market for an exit today, but in the long run, being IN the market is better than OUT.
Good luck,
M
Dennis,
I am as bullish as you are, but 100% I instead of C. I just think that the trade deficit, budget deficit, and sustained high energy prices will take a toll from our economy. I seriously considered TIMING the market for an exit today, but in the long run, being IN the market is better than OUT.
Good luck,
M
Birchtree
Well-known member
back and fill
With major market indices closing near 5 and 6 year highs, one would probably expect some back and fill next week to keep those who are maybe thinking of entering the market from doing so.
Both the SPX volume and breadth MCSUM has cleared resistance areas, so money flow is still positive in this direction on an intermediate term and trend basis.
The Dow has rallied 300 points in a week - I'm frankly ready to see a 300 point day - now that would be explosive. Many are waiting for the 4 year low to allow a cheaper entry point - might not happen if I can pull up the walk way.
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Both the VIX and the S&P have wedge patterns. Thre S&P's is a rising wedge. There is one thing you can count on with these triangular type patterns. They will breakout out of their respective triangles, and when it happens, the market will move rapidly in the direction of the breakouts.
With major market indices closing near 5 and 6 year highs, one would probably expect some back and fill next week to keep those who are maybe thinking of entering the market from doing so.
Both the SPX volume and breadth MCSUM has cleared resistance areas, so money flow is still positive in this direction on an intermediate term and trend basis.
The Dow has rallied 300 points in a week - I'm frankly ready to see a 300 point day - now that would be explosive. Many are waiting for the 4 year low to allow a cheaper entry point - might not happen if I can pull up the walk way.
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Both the VIX and the S&P have wedge patterns. Thre S&P's is a rising wedge. There is one thing you can count on with these triangular type patterns. They will breakout out of their respective triangles, and when it happens, the market will move rapidly in the direction of the breakouts.
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Birchtree
Well-known member
Live Free or Die
Cheapshot,
Good to see you're in - now can you and will you defend your account - how much character do you think this bull move has? There is no complacency here - I admit it's all fear. But I'm still having fun even though fearful in the process.
Dennis
Cheapshot,
Good to see you're in - now can you and will you defend your account - how much character do you think this bull move has? There is no complacency here - I admit it's all fear. But I'm still having fun even though fearful in the process.
Dennis
Birchtree
Well-known member
Bullet Train
Robo,
Henry sure is confident - think he'll get off the tracks before the bullet train takes him out? I was looking for quality negativity and I found it. Good stuff. When he says buying breakouts (in general) only makes sense in a rip-roaring bull market, I knew he had paws. The longer it takes for him to recognize the prevailing secular bull market and foresakes the secular bear market, the luckier I become. Thanks again.
Dennis
Robo,
Henry sure is confident - think he'll get off the tracks before the bullet train takes him out? I was looking for quality negativity and I found it. Good stuff. When he says buying breakouts (in general) only makes sense in a rip-roaring bull market, I knew he had paws. The longer it takes for him to recognize the prevailing secular bull market and foresakes the secular bear market, the luckier I become. Thanks again.
Dennis
CheapShot
Member
Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18
Well as for defending my account I not sure I can, I was lucky in playing 100% the I Fund since Nov 13th 2005 all the way to I beleive the 13th of Jan when I sold at the perfect time. Then bought right back into at 100% after it fell, since the 13th I have submitted all of my transactions. (I didn't know that I should have listed my position at the first of the year or I would have, I understand why they don't carry my numbers back) I am doing fairly well. I am definitely not complacent, and I don't like being in the G Fund, and I hate the F Fund (because I never make money while I am in it). Are we at the beggining of a Bull, most indicators say the opposite, that we need a correction first. But I think if the market takes off it will leave a lot of people on the sidlelines at first. I think it is trying to takeoff, but rising interest rates, energy prices, U.S. Debt, and falling dollar (these aren't all bad things) are holding it back. Even with all the negativity pulling at it, it has still advanced.
Though I am not complacent and I am not as positive that the Market will climb as high you beleive it will Birch, when I get a little jittery about the C or S Fund, I hide in the I Fund. My question to you is why 100% C Fund if the Market takes off don't you beleive the S Fund will benefit as well?
Well as for defending my account I not sure I can, I was lucky in playing 100% the I Fund since Nov 13th 2005 all the way to I beleive the 13th of Jan when I sold at the perfect time. Then bought right back into at 100% after it fell, since the 13th I have submitted all of my transactions. (I didn't know that I should have listed my position at the first of the year or I would have, I understand why they don't carry my numbers back) I am doing fairly well. I am definitely not complacent, and I don't like being in the G Fund, and I hate the F Fund (because I never make money while I am in it). Are we at the beggining of a Bull, most indicators say the opposite, that we need a correction first. But I think if the market takes off it will leave a lot of people on the sidlelines at first. I think it is trying to takeoff, but rising interest rates, energy prices, U.S. Debt, and falling dollar (these aren't all bad things) are holding it back. Even with all the negativity pulling at it, it has still advanced.
Though I am not complacent and I am not as positive that the Market will climb as high you beleive it will Birch, when I get a little jittery about the C or S Fund, I hide in the I Fund. My question to you is why 100% C Fund if the Market takes off don't you beleive the S Fund will benefit as well?
Birchtree
Well-known member
Paper target
Cheapshot.
When you are hiding in the I fund you may be behind a paper target.
The small caps are now working on year # 8, they will continue to have positive pricing - but perhaps not much umph. I'm presently peeling off a small bite from my own small cap and reinvesting that money in international. These funds are in my wife's retirement account which is a defined contribution plan. I'm 100% C fund in TSP because it is undervalued and still cheap for dollar cost averaging. This is an aggressive position - but I'm balanced overall. I have to take the shot. I have an outside account with Merrill known as the oceanic - and lately I've been getting stocks shot out from under me with great regularity. This bull market has plenty of money and character and needs room to run....
Cheapshot.
When you are hiding in the I fund you may be behind a paper target.
The small caps are now working on year # 8, they will continue to have positive pricing - but perhaps not much umph. I'm presently peeling off a small bite from my own small cap and reinvesting that money in international. These funds are in my wife's retirement account which is a defined contribution plan. I'm 100% C fund in TSP because it is undervalued and still cheap for dollar cost averaging. This is an aggressive position - but I'm balanced overall. I have to take the shot. I have an outside account with Merrill known as the oceanic - and lately I've been getting stocks shot out from under me with great regularity. This bull market has plenty of money and character and needs room to run....
Spaf
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
Re: Market Talk / March 12 - 18
This may give a feel for it > http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/pas/tpa-002.html
It's kind of long, but reading a few paragraphs gives a fair picture.
Rgds............ .............Spaf
JOVARN said:
This may give a feel for it > http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/pas/tpa-002.html
It's kind of long, but reading a few paragraphs gives a fair picture.
Rgds............
.............Spaf
robo
Well-known member
Re: Bullet Train
Birchtree,
Henry is out of town next week and is feeling the squeeze. In his last report he commented, "I said that the Dow Industrials could conceivably rally to the 11,250 to 11,400 range before topping out." He said he would continue to cover, but you are correct it looks like the bullet train is coming. He needs to get out of the way of your train my friend. If he wants you to slow down so he can get a ride he will have to pay up!!! GO GO Birchtree!!
Birchtree said:
Birchtree,
Henry is out of town next week and is feeling the squeeze. In his last report he commented, "I said that the Dow Industrials could conceivably rally to the 11,250 to 11,400 range before topping out." He said he would continue to cover, but you are correct it looks like the bullet train is coming. He needs to get out of the way of your train my friend. If he wants you to slow down so he can get a ride he will have to pay up!!! GO GO Birchtree!!
