Market Talk / Oct. 12 - 18

[Gumby]

Morning Gumby,

That's alright I need this market to stay down this week so my contributions can hit.

Mornin' Show-me

I am DCAing all the way into this at 50% C, 30%S, 20% I. I will continue to montior the I fund for a possibility of increasing % going to I fund.

I am going to buy AEE this morning at near the open. I have purchased AEE at $42 and $27 looks like a bargain. The yield is about 8.5%. It doesn't make sense to me why the utilities have went down as far as they have other than the market has had huge downward pressure.

I may look to move some TSP back to the Lilly pad if S&P gets to 1150 this week on a bounce.

 

[James48843]

Well, VIX has fallen off to 66.

Turnaround?

Or simply a temporary beather?


What do you think?
​

 

[James48843]

Note:

I watch C-SPAN this morning as Neel Kashkari, Interim Assistant Treasury Secretary for Financial Stability, spoke about implementation of the Emergency Economic Stability Act during an event for the Institute of International Bankers.

This guy was good. Ten times better than his boss, Paulson, at outlining exactly what they were doing.

I said Saturday they needed to fire Paulson as a speaker, and get somebody in there who would exude confidence in the markets. I have been trying to find a good clip of Kashkari's speech- so far this is the only clip I have been able to find:

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=10177518&ch=4226720&src=news

But after watching the whole speech, I can tell Treasury has found the right guy to start talking to the press.


Kuods to Neel Kashkari, and his straight forward address.

Even if he didn't have all the answers, his STYLE made me a whole lot more comfortable that they have a plan, and are working the plan.

 

[XL-entLady]

Well, VIX has fallen off to 66.

Turnaround?​

Or simply a temporary beather?​

What do you think?​

My humble opinion is that people WANT to believe that it's okay again, so they're coming back. But have you ever watched a flock of quail? They scatter in all directions at the first sign of anything different. Market buyers are going to be quail for the next few months.

But take that for what it's worth, which isn't much,

Lady

 

[Birchtree]

If the Dow can hold +400 I'm going back in for another 10 adorable wall flowers. There are so many values I just close my eyes and buy. You could do the same thing by throwing a dart at TWSJ stock page and end up making good money.

 

[typical guy]

I'm new here (hi). I actually moved part of my TSP back into the C fund on Friday. Halfway through the year, I decided I had enough of the losses on my TSP and pulled out of the stock funds. I was actually in the L2040 fund and had been since the L funds were started up. I moved all my money to the G fund on July 2nd and moved all future contributions to the G fund. On Friday Oct 10 I moved 25% of the money into the C fund and changed future allocations to all go to the C fund as well.

My thinking is that while this may not be the bottom, I am still a lot better off than I would have been had I "let it ride" (is it just me or does the "let it ride" mentality that most "experts" have sound a lot like roulette?). Also, while it may not be at the bottom yet, it seems unlikely that it will fall another 2000 points in 2 weeks. I mean, if that happens then we're back at the point in the market that we were at in the 90's! If we are at the bottom, I want some exposure to it and if we're not at the bottom, I don't want full exposure. My investment time frame is very long. I am in my 20's.

Does this sound like a reasonable thought process?

This is making me feel pretty good right now. We just had such a huge up day that I feel like I invested in the C fund on what was literally the lowest day in five years (albeit only 25%). I need to wait for another drop before I am able to put another 25% in though.

Frankly, I'm not surprised this happened. I haven't read the actual details of the bank bailout but my understanding is that the treasury will loan them "unlimited money". So does this mean that it is literally impossible for a bank to go under? I mean, if the treasury wants interest on the loan, the bank can just borrow more of the "unlimited short term loans"...no wonder the market recovered...

 

[JOVARN]

I think its going to be a positive week, not sure about Monday. Gold down, dollar up, oil down, and the Gov buying stocks will play well with
“Joe six pack” wink wink.

The Puppet masters have been busy the past few months, and I think its time they started to cash in their winnings. WATCH the list of new Billionaires grow following this mess. We were played again.

The Puppet masters were busy today.

 

[James48843]

Remember- no new fund values posted today, because TSP is closed for the holiday.

Let's hope they don't forget us tomorrow.

End results- what the TSP SHOULD have come out to today:


C Fund- up 11.58% to $11.52
S Fund- up 10.57% to $13.89
I fund - up 15.89%, less dollar change, (Corvett figures it to be .81 cents total) to $14.48.


We'll see how they value things tomorrow.

 

[McDuck]

The dead cat bounce was nice while it lasted.

 

[turbo23dog]

I'm not ready to write this day off yet... still hoping for a bit more lift.

 

[Birchtree]

I think you may see +500 on the close - hedge funds will blink and start getting back in.

 

[TradingJoe]

I think you may see +500 on the close - hedge funds will blink and start getting back in.

Hope you're right Birch! It seems to be losing momentum. Saw that 350Z bailed.:blink:

 

[Spaf]

Well I redid my TSP to 40% C-fund and light on the S and I funds. Plus adding to my I-Shares in IVV. Kind of think the worst is over....hopefully!

 

[Miss_Piggy]

Bold move Spaf!

 

[James48843]

Kind of think the worst is over....hopefully!

My own opinion- I don't think worst will be over until sometime next year. Today was a chance to bounce up and bail out with less of a loss. Tomorrow we head south again.

 

[fabijo]

Tomorrow we head south again.

Don't pick on the south. I'm sure someone down there is smart enough to make money.

 

[amoeba]

sell sell sell

My own opinion- I don't think worst will be over until sometime next year. Today was a chance to bounce up and bail out with less of a loss. Tomorrow we head south again.

Not only your opinion, but if the recent IFT's are any indication, that is what people on this website are doing (selling into a rally).

Nothing has changed in terms of unemployment or earnings guidance, to indicate anything is "over".

I'm with cramer on this one. sell sell sell.

 

[Birchtree]

Profitability resides in the ride ahead.

 

[Tempest]

I saw something normal today (a day when everything was open after yeaterdays holiday.)

Profit taking.


Last week I saw panic-individual and institutional.

Oh well.

 

[TradingJoe]

My own opinion- I don't think worst will be over until sometime next year. Today was a chance to bounce up and bail out with less of a loss. Tomorrow we head south again.

James - Hearing that from you is not good.