Market Talk / July 2 - 8

[Wizard]

This is why we are doing well today:
-----------------

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The nonmanufacturing side of the U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in June, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

It is actually because of this:

Fla. Supreme Court tosses $145 bln tobacco damages

But this gains are not going to hold.

Red close for the S&P 500. :embarrest:

 

[Wizard]

Wizard -

You have talked before about the jobs number being "leaked" to the boys a day or two earlier than the rest of us seeing it. Is this ADP the report you were talking about? I know this is a fairly new report. Just wondering if we are finally on an equal playing field with "the boys" now.

There are adjustments in June and January job report numbers in the birth/death model.

In January we see a huge low number and June we see a huge up number.

Get ready for an "upside surprise" tomorrow.

A lot of people got sucked in this morning on the MO ruling and "the fed is done" spin because of the very poor retail sales numbers.

Welcome to the grinder.

 

[ayla]

thiink -
Try the questions thread at:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forumdisplay.php?f=19

Edited to add:
Also try the Returns Tally thread at:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/forumdisplay.php?f=51

 

[Fivetears]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/attachment.php?attachmentid=996&d=1151943844

doh .. thanks for easy link
one more quez.
is there a performance list to see who is "on the money" ?

 

[Wizard]

You're right up to a point.

The percentage of business investment in the U.S. is basically negative/nil.

His whole thesis is flawed from the get go.

90% plus of business investment is to build factories and train workers in foreign countries is not going to help the U.S. The purpose of this is to continue to outsource U.S. workers to lower wage workers in another country.

 

[Wizard]

Where do you think the Japanese are buying their high end industrial manufacturing equipment?

Birchy, hate to burst your bubble but Japan is buying equipment from closed/closing U.S. factories. It is not from new orders. They are buying used gear. :blink:

You think that is a positive for U.S. workers?

 

[Wizard]

Nationwide Insurance Co. of Florida, one of the top insurers in the state, announced today that it plans to file Thursday for an average 71.4 percent homeowners insurance rate hike.

But homeowners here could get an even bigger hit to the wallet. The company wants to raise its rates as high as 99 percent in Palm Beach County.

Nationwide, which has about 240,000 customers in Florida, said that it needs the rate increase to pay for the higher cost of repairing hurricane-damaged buildings and to cover the higher price of reinsurance, or insurance for insurance companies.

It wants to raise its rates between 10 percent to 18 percent in Martin County; 18 percent to 24 percent in St. Lucie County; 18 percent to 54 percent in Indian River County and 36 percent to 99 percent in Palm Beach County.

Nationwide has about 43,000 policies in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast.

"This is a difficult decision but it reflects the true cost of doing business in the Florida marketplace," Joe Case, a spokesman for Nationwide, said of the hike.

Case said higher building costs as well as scientific models that are predicting more hurricanes hitting Florida led Nationwide to ask for the increase.

He also said the company's reinsurance costs were higher this year, but he could not say how much more it paid. Reinsurance costs have soared this year, sometimes doubling and tripling over last year's prices.

Case said he could not say whether the insurer also plans to drop more policies to cut its exposure. Nationwide started nonrenewing 35,000 policies in Florida this spring.

"I can't say anything about the future," Case said. "But we're constantly evaluating our business strategy."

Nationwide's last rate hike, for 21 percent, was approved by regulators in July.

Florida Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty said his office will scrutinize Nationwide's most recent request and try to balance its financial impact with Nationwide's need to have enough money to pay claims. But he said there is little his office can do about reinsurance prices because they aren't regulated.

"Many of our state's residents have already experienced difficulty paying higher insurance premiums due to the dramatically higher rates charged by global reinsurers," he said in a written statement. "While such coverage is necessary, we do not have regulatory authority over what reinsurers charge."

www.palmbeachpost.com/business/content/business/epaper/2006/07/05/0705nationwide.html

 

[Fivetears]

Guess... Nationwide is on your side
Nice little jingle they have there.

 

[Birchtree]

Hey Bucky Beaver you seen Chicken Little today? I heard he was out and about. Use that tail to flap out a warning - or Dow goes to 11,300 on the close. I believe I saw a riderless Trigger from the top of the bull pen.

 

[James48843]

All right -


Guys: I've found the secret.

If you want to make money on TSP day-trading, then do EXACTLY OPPOSITE of what I am doing.

I'm 100% in G today.

If you are an "anti whatever-James48843 does" investor, you're sure to make a bundle.:blink:

 

[Spaf]

Daily Yak

The Kingdom of TSP
Daily Edition
July 06, 2006 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves & The Tin Box

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak...................................Socks in hold awaiting unemployment picture. Forecast is a stay at 4.6%
Con-Yak..................................Lube is a hurtin.

Doodles:
Socks [$SPX] Closed at..............1274.08, up +3.17
Volume (CMF) (money flow).........-0.030, increasing.
Averages (MACD) (trend)............+0.634, increasing.
Momentum (S-STO) (signal).........88.77, (high)
Strength (RSI) Overbought/sold....[70] 55.38 [30]

Lube (NYM) Closed at..................75.14, dn -0.05
Oil Markers................................<70= ok, 70-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Charts & Stuff............................Green / Red [doodles +5-0, Lube > 75]

Tin Box:
Position.....................................100% socks
Stops [$SPX]..............................Alert: 1267. Trail: 1254.

 

[Birchtree]

Did you know...that the SPX rose 40% from 1985 to 1988. You may ask why. Between 1985 and the start of 1988, while the dollar fell 37%, the inflation rate averaged only 3.1%, a decline in oil prices contributed to this lower rate of inflation, the core rate of inflation that excludes energy prices also fell. That's not a guarantee that a dollar decline wouldn't raise inflation, but it shows that it is possible to have a sharp dollar decline with no adverse effect on inflation. The fall in the value of the dollar turned around the trade deficit. The U.S. is a major exporter even with today's overstrong dollar. In 2005, the U.S. exported $892 billion worth of goods, including $450 billion of capital goods, (to include I suppose used equipment), $116 billion of consumer goods and $230 billion of industrial supplies and materials. A lower dollar would raise sales volume in all these categories. Irrefutable but you can try Wizard.

 

[Fivetears]

Cheer up James. Watch these folks. Set them up in your User CP; their account threads. They have proven they are pretty good at what they do, and each has their own unique style of TSP investment. They each bring allot to the MB. Remember to keep a weekly eye on these top 10 performers and update your User CP, as the list changes; every week.

1 Fundsurfer
2 Wheels
3 sugarandspice
4 Faustus
5 Pogo
6 Dave M
7 Soldat
8 Nightlite
9 Namor
10 Nnuut

Good luck Sir.

All right -


Guys: I've found the secret.

If you want to make money on TSP day-trading, then do EXACTLY OPPOSITE of what I am doing.

I'm 100% in G today.

If you are an "anti whatever-James48843 does" investor, you're sure to make a bundle.:blink:

 

[The_Technician]

C'mon Trigger, I think I see a perma-bull looking over the cliff.....pondering....just remember ole boy, saving one bull isn't worth losing the herd....let'm jump...

 

[Wizard]

Did you know...that the SPX rose 40% from 1985 to 1988. You may ask why. Between 1985 and the start of 1988, while the dollar fell 37%, the inflation rate averaged only 3.1%, a decline in oil prices contributed to this lower rate of inflation, the core rate of inflation that excludes energy prices also fell. That's not a guarantee that a dollar decline wouldn't raise inflation, but it shows that it is possible to have a sharp dollar decline with no adverse effect on inflation. The fall in the value of the dollar turned around the trade deficit. The U.S. is a major exporter even with today's overstrong dollar. In 2005, the U.S. exported $892 billion worth of goods, including $450 billion of capital goods, (to include I suppose used equipment), $116 billion of consumer goods and $230 billion of industrial supplies and materials. A lower dollar would raise sales volume in all these categories. Irrefutable but you can try Wizard.

The price of a crude averaged $18 per barrel during this period.

Crude is over 400% higher now. :blink:

 

[The_Technician]

Funds are so overextended at this point, they could easily adjust down anywhere from 3% for the C to 5% for the I fund...:worried: ...I don't think right now is really a good time to test your bravado.....:cheesy:

Good time to "G" out......

 

[Wizard]

Birth/death module added 175K jobs.

Meaning the "real" job number is (54K).

 

[nnuut]

Birth/death module added 175K jobs.

Meaning the "real" job number is (54K).

Briefing.com says 121K!?
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

 

[Pilgrim]

Birth/death module added 175K jobs.

Meaning the "real" job number is (54K).

This will mean euphoria today, big gains for those invested, a great wailing and gnashing of teeth for those who bailed to G. But what about a few days from now? How weak can the economy appear to be before concern over earnings sets in? How many days of upside before we tank and how bad before sustained gains?

Someone on this board is claiming to have a crystal ball. If only it really worked!!

 

[Wizard]

Crude $75.80. All time high.